Pet Retail Market and Valuation Outlook
Appendix 13
84
| 13. DCF: Zee.Dog Assumptions and Valuation
Income Statement (mn)
20'
21E
22E
23E
24E
25E
26E
27E
28E
29E
30E
Gross Revenue
125
228
361
522
743
971
1235
1488
1693
1904
2123
Zee.Dog growth YOY
83%
58%
44%
42%
31%
27%
20%
14%
12%
11%
Growth Multiplier
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
0.8x
0.8x
0.8x
Petz Growth YOY
49%
37%
35%
31%
27%
20%
17%
16%
14%
Gross Revenue Brazil
as % of total
Gross Revenue Global
as % of total
(-) Deductions
157
253
370
535
709
902
1,086
1,236
1,390
1,550
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
73%
73%
73%
73%
73%
71
108
151
208
262
334
402
457
514
573
31%
30%
29%
28%
27%
27%
27%
27%
27%
27%
35
56
80
114
150
190
229
261
293
327
% of Gross Revenue
Net Revenue
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
193
306
441
628
822
1,045
1,259
1,433
1,611
1,796
growth YOY
N.A
58%
44%
42%
31%
27%
20%
14%
12%
11%
(-) COGS
93
147
212
302
394
502
604
688
773
862
growth YOY
N.A
58%
44%
42%
31%
27%
20%
14%
12%
11%
% of Net Revenue
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
Gross Profit
100
159
230
327
427
544
655
745
838
934
growth YOY
N.A
58%
44%
42%
31%
27%
20%
14%
12%
11%
% of Net Revenue
(-) SG&A
growth YOY
% of Net Revenue
% of Net Revenue
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
59
92
130
182
234
298
359
408
459
512
N.A
56%
42%
40%
28%
27%
20%
14%
12%
11%
31%
30%
30%
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
22%
22%
23%
23%
24%
24%
24%
24%
24%
24%
EBIT (Proxy)
39
64
94
137
183
233
281
320
359
401
OCF Zee.DOG
21E
22E
23E
24E
25E
26E
27E
28E
29E
30E
Perpetuity
Main Assumptions
Zee Dog Valuation
EBIT
(-) Taxes
39
64
94
137
183
233
281
320
359
401
-13
-22
-32
-47
-62
-79
-96
-109
-122
-136
NOPAT
26
42
62
90
121
154
185
211
237
265
(+) D&A.
2
4
5
7
10
12
15
17
19
21
(+/-) Change in WS
-2
-3
-3
-4
-5
-5
-5
-4
-4
-4
(-) Capex
-9
-14
-21
-30
-39
-49
-60
-68
-76
-85
Tax Rate
Capex/Sales
34%
+) Cash Flows
520
4%
(+) Perpetuity
1,045
WC/Gross Revenue
2%
(=) Equity Value
1,565
WACC
12%
Shares
394
D&A/Sales
1%
Value per Share
BRL
3.97
g (perpetuity)
4.4%
FCFF
Period
NPV
Source: Team 7
21E-30E
Perpertuity
17
28
43
64
87
112
136
156
176
196
2,871
Total
0.25
1.25
2.25
3.25
4.25
5.25
6.25
7.25
8.25
9.25
9.25
17
25
34
45
55
63
69
71
71
72
1,045
33.2%
66.8%
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