Nexstar's FCF and Capital Allocation
Long Term Industry Projections Imply Long Term Revenue Growth
Projected Local Broadcast Industry Advertising Revenue Growth
($ in millions)
$30,000
$25,951
$26,238
$26,754
$26,613
$26,851
$21,453
$25,000
$22,508
$23,309
$23,770
$23,772
$23,958
$20,557
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
food
network
$5,000
$0
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Core station revenues
Digital/online Political revenues
Illustrative Distribution Revenue Projection Scenarios
MVPD/VMVPD Subscribers
Historical and Illustrative Projected Nexstar Distribution Revenue
(in millions)
($ in millions)
66% of TVHH and 73% of adults ages 45+ (representing over 50% of the adult population) have a Pay TV service.
100.0
9.2
80.0
$5,000
$4,359
12.7
$4,000
14.9
16.7
60.0
17.9
18.4
18.8
19.2
$2,473
$2,572
$3,677
$3,078 $3,000
$2,555
40.0
80.0
$2,153
$2,000
72.9
66.6
59.8
$1,369
54.0
49.6
20.0
46.2
43.3
$1,000
$0
2019
2020
2021
2022
| MVPD Subscribers
(-8% '22-26 CAGR)
(Combined: -5% '22-'26 CAGR)
I VMVPD Subscribers
(+4% '22-26 CAGR)
Nexstar Distribution Revenue
(14% Revenue CAGR Q419 - Q322)
2023
20% Rate CAGR
2024
2025
2026
15% Rate CAGR
10% Rate CAGR
5% Rate CAGR
(14% Revenue CAGR)
(9% Revenue CAGR)
(5% Revenue CAGR)
(0% Revenue CAGR)
Note: Nexstar Distribution Revenue for 2022 reflects the LTM 9/30/22 period.; Illustrative revenue projection scenarios are based on 68% penetration of MVPD/VMVPD subscribers based on Nexstar TVHH coverage by its television stations. Nexstar closed on its acquisition of Tribune Media in Q3 2019.
Sources: Advertising and subscriber projections from SNL Kagan (6/22); Leichtman Research 10/22 and US census. These projections are presented for illustrative purposes and are based on a number of estimates and assumptions which are inherently subject to uncertainties and contingencies. These projections are not
presented to represent actual expectations of what distribution revenue growth Nexstar may achieve but rather as a tool to assess what impact subscriber attrition may have on revenue based on a variety of growth rate assumptions for distribution fees per subscriber. There are many other factors such as timing and
impact of contract renegotiations, the composition of MVPD and VMVPD subscribers which have different revenue characteristics, the impact of other distribution revenue generated from other sources, among others, which could materially impact timing and outcome of actual revenues. In addition, the Company's
ability to generate growth in future distribution revenues is subject to significant risks and will depend upon future events, many of which are not within the Company's control. Under no circumstances should such illustrative projections be construed as a representation or prediction that the Company will achieve any
particular results.
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