Creating the Future of Finance - Breakthrough Innovation
Billion Baht
Billion Baht
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Monetary and fiscal expansion raises financial stability concerns
In contrast with the Fed, the BOT has maintained interest rate
%
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
to support the economy amid COVID-19 outbreak
BOT Policy Rate
-Fed Funds Rate -Lower Bound
Fed Funds Rate -Upper Bound
Thailand has enough FX reserves
to meet all internal and external obligations
FX Reserves
■Net Forward Position
$ Billion
$ Billion
■3 months of imports
Reserves backing banknotes
■ST external debt
300
$279.2 bn
300
$245.8 bn
250
250
200
200
76.6
150
246.0
216.6
150
$217.96 Billion
100
65.0
100
50
50
76.4
33.2
29.2
0
0
2021-end
2022-end
Source: BOT and KResearch
Last Update: December 2022
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Sources: BOT, Federal Reserves and KResearch (as of December 2022)
Excess liquid assets in Thai commercial banks slightly rose
Million Baht
5,000,000
■Due to high inflationary pressures, the Fed decided to raised
its policy rate to 4.25-4.50% in December 2022
■Monetary easing leads to a massive exodus of capital from 4,000,000
emerging markets and worsens exchange rate depreciation
in 2022. However, Thailand's external stability will likely be 3,000,000
maintained
■The Thai banking system excess liquidity rose slightly. The
CAR was good (18.86% as of November 2022) and NPL ratio
was still manageable (2.92% as of 9M22), with net profits of
Bt162.2bn in 9M22
%LCR
190.9
187.7
188.6
183.5 184.7
183.9 182.8
176.9
178.1
173.8
2,000,000
2016
2017
2018 2019 2020
Liquid Assets
2021
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 Nov-22
-LCR (%)
Note: BOT has imposed the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) Framework which replaces the maintenance 6% reserve
requirement. Regarding the LCR framework, all banks shall maintain high-quality liquid assets not less than net expected
cash outflow over the next 30 days. The LCR was implemented on January 1, 2016, with the minimum requirement set at
60%, rising in equal annual steps of 10 percentage points to reach 100% on January 1, 2020
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Other Figures
Thai Bond Market Size (Gov't and Private bonds)
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
53.9 52.4
88.8 91.0 90.9
63.3 64.4 64.8
69.4 69.6 70.2 72.9 74.5 73.6
78.1 78.7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Thai Bond Outstanding (LHS)
Bond Market Size to GDP (RHS)
Foreign Holdings of Thai Bonds
1,200
1,000
800
600
4.0%
5.9%
8.3%8.4%
7.4%
6.0% 6.4%
400 -1.0%
1.5% 1.1%
200
0
2007
2010
Foreign Holding Outstanding (LHS)
Source: BOT and ThaiBMA
2013
2016
90
× ៩ ៖ ៩ ៖ 8 8 3 8 8៖
100
% to GDP
%
%/3.5
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Bond Yields
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
6M 1Y
-Dec 19
2Y 3Y
Dec 20
4Y 5Y
-⚫Dec 21
6Y
7Y 8Y
--Dec 22
9Y
Jan 12, 2023
10Y
15Y
Current Account and FX Reserve
3.0
USD Billion
50,000
10%
40,000
USD216.6 bn (2022-end)
USD Billion
300,000
8.2%7.9%
7.1%
6.1%
6.9% 6.9% 8%
6%
4%
2019
% of Thai Bond Market (RHS)
0%
2022
% of Total Bond Outstanding
250,000
30,000
200,000
20,000
10,000
150,000
0
100,000
-10,000
-20,000
USD-18.0bn (11M22)
50,000
-30,000
0
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
Current Account (LHS) --FX Reserves (RHS)
160
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