Investor Presentaiton
58
IN WHICH
SCENARIO IS
THE RISK MOST
MATERIAL
Short
Medium
Long
now-2025 2026-2030 2031-2050
RISK
MITIGATION AND OPPORTUNITY
TIME HORIZON
Lower
1.5°C
Higher
4.5°C
Food security
Food security represents the
most material and uncertain risk
for the Australian grocery sector.
Our prices are tightly linked with global
markets. The agricultural system will
likely evolve into one where the areas
harvested increase, but yields decrease
due to climate-related factors.
While we will be able to maintain our
existing product range, if not managed
proactively, this could result in lower
productivity, and potentially higher
costs to us and our customers.
The more specific commodity insights
we gained will help us prioritise where
to focus our sourcing efforts to mitigate
climate-related risks.
Rapid decarbonisation of the food.
supply chain is needed, through
a combination of supply and
demand-side initiatives. Nature-based
solutions that simultaneously contribute
to carbon sequestration as well
as improve agricultural productivity
will play a big part, such as tree
planting to provide shelterbelts and
incorporation of perennial pastures
in livestock production.
As food security is such a broad
challenge, there is an opportunity to
partner across industry and government
to achieve the most effective outcome.
By proactively identifying where we
can take action to strengthen the
resilience of our supply chain, both
through agricultural productivity as well
as diversity of supply, we can continue.
to provide value to our customers over
the long term.
Way forward in F24
Governance
With the launch of the ISSB Climate-related disclosure framework, we are preparing for how
we best report against this whilst also aiming to align with the TNFD. We will assess climate
and nature risks, potential impacts and controls as part of the Group's material risks.
59
Annual Report 2023
Woolworths Group
1
highlights
Performance
2
Report
Directors'
Strategy
The scope 3 value chain emissions pilot has provided many learnings and insights that
will inform the development of a scope 3 emissions reduction strategy that integrates
climate and nature. This strategy will set out how we work across our value chain
to enable the implementation of emissions reduction solutions, including those that
have co-benefits in nature.
Commencing in F24, we will also pilot shadow carbon pricing across critical business areas
to accelerate our decarbonisation journey beyond the goods we sell.
Business
review
3
Methodology for scenario analysis
Our key policy and development assumptions are drawn from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) used in the
IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, and adapted to Australian trajectories where possible. These adaptations include the latest
Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) Integrated Service Plan 2022 for local insights about grid electricity emissions.
We drew further national parameters from the CSIRO's Australian National Outlook. Climate scenario analysis before 2022
considered varied population metrics according to the SSPs. This variation dominated all financial modelling because
population heavily influences the Group's financial outcomes. Because of that, we have retained a consistent population
forecast across all scenarios. Woolworths Group-specific inputs were standard across all scenarios. Material inputs
included applying our current climate and nature strategy, a consistent market share, store growth and store mix forecasts.
Costs of store-closure impacts relating to previous weather events were extrapolated for the different scenarios. Thisyear,
a significant addition included our transition to zero-emissions transport, guided by our recently endorsed transport
decarbonisation strategy, rather than relying on national assumptions.
Risk management
The development of climate change resilience plans for our physical assets and logistics
network will continue with mandated resilience measures for new builds and renewals.
We will track site-level progress to demonstrate our physical assets' growing resilience.
In the coming year, we will use the insights from our climate scenario modelling, and findings
from TNFD and natural capital pilots, to explore opportunities offered by nature-based
solutions. These learnings can enable us to report on nature-related risks and opportunities.
SCENARIO
IPCC reference and
socioeconomic pathway
Population growth
AEMO
(2022 Integrated
System Plan)
Australian National
Outlook (CSIRO)
1.5°C SCENARIO
SSP1-1.9
Sustainability
2.0°C SCENARIO
2.7°C SCENARIO
SSP1-2.6
Sustainability
Step change
Progressive change
Green and Gold
Thriving Australia
SSP2-4.5
Middle of the Road
SSP2
4.5°C SCENARIO
SSP5-8.5
Fossil-fuelled Development
Slow change
Slow change
Slow Decline
As these relate to business strategy they are the same across all scenarios:
Slow Decline
Existing emissions transition plans (e.g. green electricity, lower emissions refrigerants, Group transport
Woolworths
decarbonisation)
Group inputs
Store growth as well as product mix integrated with business forecasts
Consistent market share
Revenue impacts to stores based on extreme weather-related closures
Metrics and targets
SBTi's recent release of guidance for forestry, land and agriculture sector (FLAG)
organisations requires us to reset our baseline and targets. We anticipate finalising
the process in F24. This will see our scope 3 emissions align to a 1.5°C reduction pathway.
4
Report
Financial
ம
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