KBank Subsidiaries and ASEAN Economic Strategy
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Currency and Interest Rate Outlook
USD/THB: End Period
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Interest Rate Trend
3.25
Fed Funds rate
BOT's 1-Day Repurchase rate
4.00
2.75
2.25
Bt
2.00
35.97
1.50 1.50
1.50 1.75
37
32.68 32.91
35.84
32.66 32.55
2.00
32
33 31.54 30.60
29.98 30.50
29
4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20F
――USD/THB
■ USD/THB depreciated to around 30.90 in 1H20, due to
a risk-off sentiment from fear of the COVID-19
outbreak and BOT rate cuts
■ However, USD/THB to drop back to 30.50 by the end
of this year, due to the tendency toward US dollar
weakness, expected stability in the BOT rate, and
strong Thai economic fundamentals, such as high
current account surplus, low inflation, and high
global liquidity
0.00
1.25
0.50
0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0.25-0.50 0.50-0.75 1.25-1.50 1.50-1.75 0.00-0.25
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F
■Fed would keep its ultra-monetary easing with Fed
Funds rate of 0.00-0.25% and its quantitative easing
throughout the year, from 1.50-1.75% in 2019, as the
COVID-19 outbreak, existing US-China tensions,
and US election uncertainty are expected to impact
US economic growth
■ BOT may maintain its interest rate at 0.50% in 2020,
from 1.25% in 2019, due to impacts of the COVID-19
outbreak globally on Thai economic growth
Note: F is estimated by KBank Capital Markets Research (as of August 10, 2020)
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Monthly Economic Conditions: June 2020
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
2018
2019
2020
YTD
Units: YoY %, or indicated otherwise
1Q-20 2Q-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
2020
Private Consumption Index (PCI)
4.5
2.5
1.7
-10.3 -0.8 -14.3 -11.5 -4.7
-4.4
Non-durables Index
Durables Index
Service Index
1.4
2.3
1.1
-7.0
1.2 -11.2
-6.4
-3.2
-2.8
8.0
-2.0 -12.00 -29.1 -22.0 -37.5
-32.0
-18.9
-20.4
5.3
Passenger Car Sales
19.1
-2.4 -22.6
Motorcycle Sales
-2.8
Private Investment Index (PII)
3.5
Construction Material Sales Index
4.4
Domestic Machinery Sales at constant prices
6.1
Imports of Capital Goods at constant prices
3.6
-0.9
Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment
5.7
2.8 -9.9 -28.2 -21.9 -31.1 -28.6 -24.3
-58.7 -44.6 -72.9 -61.4 -40.3 -40.2
-3.3 -5.7 -28.8 -11.2 -34.4 -37.1 -12.8 -16.9
-2.6 -6.5 -13.5 -7.9 -9.9 -18.2 -12.1 -10.0
-0.7 -0.3 2.7 -1.0 16.3 -2.5 -3.3 1.1
-5.4 0.6 -22.5 -1.7 -15.5 -28.5 -22.6 -10.8
-9.2 -19.6 -11.0 -17.5 -26.8 -13.7
-14.5
-3.0 -11.7 -24.5 -8.0 -25.4 -34.7 -12.6 -17.8
-19.0
Manufacturing Production Index
3.7
-3.6 -6.4 -20.0
Capacity Utilization
69.2
Agriculture Production Index
7.4
-0.4 -13.8
Agriculture Price Index
-5.4
Tourist arrival growth
7.3
66.0 66.9 52.9
-4.7
1.8 8.8 -1.4
4.2 -38.0 -100.0 -76.4
Exports (Custom basis)
6.9
-2.6
0.9 -15.2
Price
3.4
0.3 -0.4 -2.0
Volume
3.9
-3.7
Imports (Custom basis)
12.0
Price
Volume
Trade Balance ($ millions) (Custom basis)
Current Account ($ millions)
Headline CPI
Core CPI
0.71
-18.2 -23.8 -17.7 -12.9
51.3 52.3 55.2 59.9
-15.4 -0.3 2.7 -10.0
3.6 -2.9 -4.5 3.6
-100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -66.2
2.1 -22.5 -23.2 -7.1
-2.4 -2.3 -1.5 -1.2
1.8 -16.1 -0.8 -1.0 -21.9 -23.5 -7.1
-4.8 -1.9 -23.5 7.2 -17.2 -34.4 -18.1 -12.6
5.6 0.2 -0.9 -5.1
-4.2 -7.3 -5.1 -2.8 -3.0
7.7 -5.7 -0.1 -19.3 8.7 -10.5 -30.6 -15.8 -9.7
4,756 10,009 3,934 6,767 1,592 2,462 2,695 1,610 10,701
28,457 38,358 8,917 -837 544 -654 64 -247 8,080
1.06 0.71 0.41 -2.67 -0.54 -2.99 -3.44 -1.57 -1.13
0.52 0.53 0.12 0.54 0.41 0.01 -0.05 0.32
-10.5
67.8
-25.1
8.7
4.2
-1.6
■June indicators suggested the Thai
economy improved from the
previous month, due to the gradual
relaxation of lockdown measures
■ June private consumption
indicators contracted at a lower
rate, compared with the previous
month
■ June exports continued to contract
drastically, especially exports of
automotive and parts, machinery
and equipment, and petroleum-
related products
■June current accounts registered a
deficit from tourist revenue
■June headline inflation remained
negative for 4 consecutive months
but dropped at a lower rate than
previous months. Meanwhile, core
inflation turned negative for the first
time in more than a decade
Sources: Bank of Thailand (BOT), Ministry of Commerce (MOC), Office of Industrial Economics (OIE), and Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE)
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