State of Hawaii Fiscal Resilience Plan
STATE
OF
Update on Council on Revenues
Most Recent Council on Revenues Forecast Reflected the Maui Wildfires, but Still Materially Exceeds Pre-Pandemic
Forecasts
■ Reduced FY 2024 COR forecast reflected reduced tax collections in
FYTD 2024 and near-term impacts of the Maui wildfires
Council on Revenues ("COR") Forecast
September 2023 Meeting vs. May 2023 Meeting
6.00%
5.20%
■ Better than anticipated non-tax revenue forecast helps mitigate the
impact on the General Fund financial plan
5.00%
4.00%
☐
September 2023 forecast exceeds pre-pandemic high forecast (Jan
2020) by 9.9% from 2024-2026, translating to $881 million of
4.00%
3.50%
3.50% 3.50%
3.00%
additional revenue per year
☐
The next COR meeting is scheduled for January 2024
2.00%
1.30%
1.00%
0.00%
2024
May 2023 COR Forecast
2025
2026-2030
September 2023 COR Forecast
Comparison of COR Forecasted Tax Revenues: May 2023 and September 2023 (Current) versus Jan 2020 (Pre-pandemic High)(1)
($MM) Fiscal Year
Current (Sep-23) Versus Pre-pandemic High (Jan-2020)
$13,000
$12,000
2024
+9.2%
2025
+10.5%
2026
+10.0%
$11,000
$10,000
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Jan-20
May-23
Sep-23
11
1)
Note: For Jan 2023 and Sept 2023 COR Forecast, data labels reflect actuals for FY 2019-FY 2023. For Jan 2020 Forecast, data labels reflect actuals for FY 2019.
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