Financial and Mortgage Portfolio Overview
Unemployment continues to fall
A growing labour shortage will probably be one of the greatest challenges.
Highlights
Labour supply according to corporate executives
%
Unemployment¹
% of workforce, annual average
Unemployment has fallen swiftly
after peaking in January 2021 as the
relatively swift economic recovery in
2021 has fostered job growth
100
9
Registered unemployment
measures 3.3% in June 2022 and
90
8
60
80
7
looks set to fall even further in
coming months
ISB Research forecasts average
year-2022 unemployment at 4.4%
According to a recent Gallup survey,
54% of company executives
consider themselves short-staffed
Construction and tourism companies
in particular envision adding on staff
As foreign workers have been
prominent in these sectors, labour
importation is likely to increase
markedly this year
70
70
666
60
50
40
40
30
30
20
Unemployment seems likely to fall to
10
a new equilibrium in the coming
term, averaging 3.7% in 2023 and
3.6% in 2024, which will bring it back
to the 2019 level
0
2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021
Firms considering themselves short-staffed
-Firms considering the labour supply adequate
1
3
2
4
00
6
LO
5
0
2006 2008 2010 2012
2014 2016 2018 2020
2022
2024
Unemployment
1. Excluding recipients of part-time unemployment benefits. Source: Statistics Iceland, The Central Bank of Iceland, Gallup.
43
August-September 2022View entire presentation