Windsor Framework & Northern Ireland Protocol Overview
External environment in 2024
Rate cuts likely in 2024 but slowing external growth a headwind for Ireland
2023
2024
Irish PMI has slipped like other economies, but services
helping to keep PMI close to 50
EA Monetary
Policy
Higher rates impacting
activity thru credit flows
Rate cuts priced in
70
US Monetary
Policy
EU Fiscal Policy
Expansionary
High rates but not
overtly slowing activity
Less expansionary
65
60
Rate cuts priced in
Index
55
US growth
Energy prices
Modest growth
Modest growth
50
Prices pressure easing
Impact unclear
45
UK growth
Minimal growth
Minimal growth,
recession risk
40
I
I
Jan May Sep
Euro Growth
Global Inflation
0.5%-1% growth at best
Disinflation trend clear
Minimal growth,
recession risk
Moderation expected
to continue
2021
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep
2022
2023
Jan
- Ireland
United States Euro Area
Source: S&P Global
Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta
National Treasury Management Agency
22
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