Canadian Banking and Mortgage Portfolio Overview
Resilience of the Pacific Alliance
Average Annual
+2.9%
+3.0%
+3.1%
+2.7%
GDP Growth
+1.8%
+2.3%
+1.6%
Notable
Events
H
H
(by country)
Election
Low Oil
Prices
Election &
Odebrecht
Election
& Trade Dispute
No events
Social
Unrest
Approximate GDP
-2.2%1
-2.6%²
-1.5%3
-1.5%4
Impact on country
-1.8%5
+13%
CAGR
International
$2.8
$3.2
Banking
Earnings
(C$B)
$1.7
$1.9
$2.1
$2.4
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019F
2020F
NOTE: Pacific Alliance GDP growth calculated based on mean average of the four PAC countries
12013 GDP growth rate vs. 2014-2017 average; 2 2014 vs. 2015-2017 average; 3 2016 vs. 2017; 4 2016 vs. 2017-2019 average; 5 Estimated impact in 2020F due to social unrest;
Source: Past GDP data from IMF; forecast from Scotiabank Economics
36View entire presentation