Insurgency Success Factors and Rebel Legitimacy
comprehensive examination of multiple legitimating factors, by identifying, organization, and
defining existing factors of legitimacy into a single framework. The framework then builds on
this evaluation of determinants of legitimacy to provide a structured methodology for assessing
and tracking factors that lead to rebel success.
The first step taken to develop this framework, was to identify and define factors of rebel
legitimacy. The literature review contributed to substantially to determining the causes of
legitimacy in conflicts. Legitimacy factors were incorporated into the framework if directly
applicable to insurgency and rebel contexts, and if they were connected to avenues known to
produce rebel success. For example, democratic elections in rebel groups can contribute to
legitimacy amongst the international community, which can open channels to achieve resources,
propaganda support, and diplomacy. The factors that held the strongest correlation to increasing
insurgent legitimacy were: democratic elections; support of political institutions; support of
political elites; access to formal negotiating processes; ideological connection to civilian
populations and identity; protection of civilians; external connection to and support of rebel
ideology; external material support; development of and adherence to internal and international
law; effective ability to mobilize resources, programs, and services; and implementing effective
propaganda and media campaigns.
These factors are further organized into four categories of legitimacy: political space,
external support, civilian support, and organizational management. The factors of each category
produce legitimacy in similar areas, and contribute to similar avenues of success. For example,
civilian protection and civilian ideological appeal developed stronger rates of legitimacy among
civilian populations than external actors. Similarly, organizational factors produced stronger
levels of legitimacy amongst foreign actors, which allowed rebels access to foreign diplomacy,
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