Investor Update April 2022
Naphtha
Aromatics
Olefins
2022 Petrochemical Outlook
Price
Y2021
4Q2021
1Q2022(E)
2022(E)
HDPE
1,182
$/Ton
1,600
PP Film
1,321
1,252
1,335
1,315 - 1,365
1,365 - 1,415
1,365 - 1,415
1,347 - 1,397
1,400
1,200
1,000
HDPE CFR SEA
PP Film CFR SEA
800
1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22
2Q22 3Q22
4Q22
Price
Y2021
$/Ton
BZ
914
4Q2021
945
PX
859
893
1Q2022(E)
1,080 - 1,130
1,100 - 1,150
2022(E)
1,130 - 1,180
1,160 - 1,210
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
BZ FOB Korea
-
PX CFR Taiwan
600
1Q21
2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
4Q22
$/Ton
Price
Naphtha MOPJ
Y2021
647
4Q2021
744
1Q2022(E)
897-947
2022(E)
935-985
1,100
900
700
500
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22
Source: PTT, PRISM Petrochemical Rolling as of March 2022
ptt
Olefins
+ Tighten Asian supply from production cuts due to squeezed margins and
seasonal turnarounds in late 1Q until 2Q
+ Expected demand recovery according to brighter economic prospects and
higher vaccination campaigns
-
+ Stronger feedstock costs and freight rates to support olefins prices
Incoming additional Asian capacities from Northeast Asia and Southeast
Asia especially China throughout 2022
Aromatics
-
+ Lower supply from production cuts due to squeezed margin and seasonal
turnarounds in late 1Q until 2Q
+ Higher demand from new capacities of SM/ PTA downstream and economic
recovery
+ Stronger feedstock costs to support aromatics prices
- Closed Asia-US arbitrage opportunities to weigh on BZ sentiment
Elevated Chinese inventories pressure on BZ & PX markets
Incoming additional Asian capacities from Northeast Asia and Southeast
Asia especially China throughout 2022
Naphtha
+ More gasoline blending demand especially US driving season in 3Q
+ Additional demand from petrochemical plants which expected to COD
throughout 2022
- Weak demand as a result of switching to LPG after winter and sluggish
petchem margins, prompted more Asian crackers to reduce operating rates
Cracker maintenance between late Q1 to early 2Q
-
-
Rising supply from higher refinery's utilization rate resulted from
recovered demand
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