J.P.Morgan Investment Banking
APPENDIX
Discounted cash flow analysis - Adjusted Upside Case
Projections ($ millions, except per share data)
Adjusted cash EBITDA
Less: Mohegan adjustment
Less: recurring equity earnings
Less: Depreciation
EBIT
Less: Tax expense
Net income
Plus: Depreciation
Less: Capex
Plus: Capitalized interest adj.
Plus: Cape Town notes monetization
Plus: Kanahura notes monetization
Plus: Reethi Rah notes monetization
Less: Dev. Proj. Investments
Less: Project advances
Less: Lux (repayments)/issuances
Plus: CF from AC land sale
Less: Increases in NWC
Plus: Equity earnings terminal valuation
Plus: Palmilla dividend
Plus: Dividend income
Unle vered free cash flow
Valuation
Equity value per share
WACC:
2006E
$108
0
(6)
(36)
3.00%
$95.69
89.05
83.27
$66
(3)
$64
36
(263)
26
0
0
0
(97)
0
(1)
0
7
0
0
14
($214)
2007 E
$306
0
(10)
(90)
$205
5
$210
90
(192)
32
0
0
0
(28)
(20)
(12)
0
1
0
0
47
$128
2008E
$365
0
WACC:
EⓇ * * * º °°pon-2-00
(17)
(98)
$250
(9)
$241
98
(75)
18
76
5
1
(0)
1
8
65
$436
2009E
$397
0
(22)
(99)
$276
(9)
$267
99
(80)
0
10
2
0
O SONÔNOO
40
20
$377
2006E FV/EBITDA multiple
2010E
$424
0
(27)
(100)
$297
(9)
$288
100
(85)
0
ܘ ܘ ܘ ܘ ܘ ܚ ܘ ܗ ܘ ܚ ܟ
13
$330
Terminal growth rate
3.25%
2011E
$437
0
(28)
(99)
$3 10
(10)
$300
99
(88)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
4
$329
2012E
$450
0
(29)
(99)
$323
(10)
$313
99
(90)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
4
$338
2013E
$464
0
(30)
(98)
Terminal growth rate
3.25%
3.50%
3.00%
3.50%
9.50%
$97.74
$99.96
9.50%
17.3x
17.7x
18.1x
9.50%
10.00%
90.74
92.56
10.00%
16.2
16.5
16.8
10.00%
84.68
86.19
10.50%
15.3
15.5
15.7
10.50%
10.50%
Note: Valuation date 6/30/06; assumes land value of $385mm and net debt of $662mm; 2006E adjusted to reflect only Q3-Q4 stub period
¹ Differs from EBITDA in that it includes non-recurring equity earnings and land sales per K-2 model
JPMorgan
$336
(10)
$325
98
(93)
0
WACC:
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
4
$348
2014E
$477
0
(30)
(98)
$349
(11)
$338
98
(96)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
4
$358
2015E
$492
(52)
(31)
(98)
3.00%
10.7x
9.9
9.3
$311
(10)
$301
98
(99)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
423
13
5
$741
Implied terminal FV/EBITDA multiple
Terminal growth rate
3.25%
11.1x
10.3
9.6
2016E
$507
(54)
(32)
(98)
$322
(10)
$312
98
(101)
0
O O O O O O O O O
13
5
$326
3.50%
11.6x
10.7
10.0
PROJECT PLATO 21View entire presentation