Evercore Investment Banking Pitch Book slide image

Evercore Investment Banking Pitch Book

Supplemental Soda Ash Pricing Data Export Soda Ash Prices i $300 There has been a historical difference in how IHS and actual pricing is reported; there is also a difference in forecast viewpoint which we have tried to express in the table below; SIRE management does not rely on IHS forecasts for budgeting purposes; SIRE management's long-term forecasts utilize contracting activity, client discussions and detailed market analysis $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 ($/Metric Ton) 2012 2013 Export Price (Actuals/Mgmt. Forecast) Export Price (IHS Markit) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Export Price (Actuals / Management Forecast) Export Price (IHS Markit) Evercore note: Page provided by SIRE management to support management's view on projected soda ash prices Reporting Differential (3-Year Average Extrapolation) Representative Difference in View Source: SIRE management forecasts, IHS Markit EVERCORE 2012A 2013A 2014A $141 168 (26) $121 154 (33) $132 161 (29) Export Price Differences ($/MT) 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 173 (32) $141 $128 $129 $136 $142 $107 $119 $200 153 159 10:00 (25) (30) I (31) 167 48 177 (35) 3-Year Average: $(39)mm 2020A 2021A Confidential - Preliminary and Subject to Change 159 (51) 157 (39) 200 2022E 2023E 2024E (39) 40 270 (39) IHS vs Actuals Reporting Differential Historically, SWY's realized export pricing has been consistently below IHS pricing estimates primarily due to differences in the way IHS approximates logistics costs (particularly rail costs) as compared to SWY's true contractual agreements with logistics providers ▪ IHS also makes inaccurate assumptions on inland costs for exports and take more favorable view on Chinese soda ash capacity, costs, and pricing (31) IHS vs Mgmt. Forecast Difference in View ▪ IHS is forecasting future export pricing at unprecedented levels, higher than SWY's projected estimates and higher than their own historical pricing ■ Costs in China are expected to decline in 2023 compared to 2022 due to lower energy and other input costs ▪ Chinese margins in 2022 are 2-3 times higher than the historic normal due to limited availabilty of product/max operating rates $200 $190 $180 $172 $172 $166 270 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E (41) 258 (39) (39) (39) 248 (39) per metric ton) (37) 248 (39) (37) 238 (39) (33) ŞİŞECAM
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