Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Management Projections: AR
AR Base Volumes Case
(in millions, unless otherwise noted)
Production Volumes (MMcfe/d)
1.847
332
1,379
2016A
$588
$164
$1,464
2,253
2016A
131 419
105
1,620
2017A
Capital Expenditures
$2,216
$1,854
$163
$238
Gas ☐NGLS (excl. Ethane) o Ethane Oil
2017A-2022ZE CAGR: 18%
$1,452
2,702
2017A
40 465
1,920
2018E
3,330
286
56 603
$1,511
2,382
2018E
2019E
$1,660 $1,684
$149
$95
$1,589
2019E
59
Source: Management projections, Company Filings.
(1) AM fully consolidated in SEC financial statement.
(2) Free cash flow net of land maintenance capital.
3,945
342
712
2,822
2020E
☐Drilling Leasehold Acquisition & Maintenance Acquisitions
$1,780
$81
70
4,545
402
2020E
3,222
2021E
$1,850
$103
$1,699 $1,747
87
2021E
5,194
471
974
2022E
1105
$2,112
$105
$2,007
202 ZE
EBITDAX(1)
$1,406
$1,003
$290
2016A
EBITDAX (Excl. Hedges) Income from Hedges a LP Distributions from AM
$2,728
2017A-2022E CAGR: 17%
$1,250
$135
$214
$19
20184
$901
2017A
Cumulative Free Cash Flow
Base Case
Downside Pricing Case
Downside Case
Free Cash Flow(2)
$1,774
$170
$464
$1,140
2018E-2022E
2018E
$1,615
$184
5900
$519
Free Cash Flow
$500
$2,086 $2,100
$219
2019A
$585
$1,283
2019E
$792
$273
2020E
$282
$224
$1,594
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
2020€
$1,102
$310
$2,305
$338
$37
Cumulative FCF
2021E
$1,930
2021E
$405
$35
$2,288
2022E
$1,615
$513
2022E
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COCHANT BANKING
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