Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book
AR BENCHMARKING (CONT.)
Valuation metrics
($ in millions, unless otherwise noted)
GAS-WEIGHTED PEERS
EQT (5)
Gulfport
swn (6)
ELITE E&P's
& Co
CONCHO
Current
DIAMONDBACK (7)
Beogresources
PIONEER
NATURAL RESOURCES
Pre-SallingStone 130
Antero (8)
Bay
Antero
(4)
(4)
See following page for footnotes.
Equity
Market
Cap.
$10,985
13,060
1,710
3,519
Equity
Market
Cap.
$10,985
22,877
12,006
64,315
32,899
Market Data
Total
Enterprise
Value
$11,268
25,387
3,684
7,628
$11,268
25,435
13.711
70,263
34,656
$6,313 $11,574
Anny
Implied E&P E&P Debt /
2018E
EBITDAX
$6,454 $11,992
Enterprise
Value
$11,268
12,987
Total Implied E&P E&P Debt /
Enterprise : Enterprise
2018E
Value
Value
EBITDAX
3,684
5,165
Low
Median
High
$11,268
25,435
11,411
70,263
34,656
Low
Median
High
$6,820
3.2x
$7,673
3.1x
2.2x
1.1x
0.9x
0.5x
0.5x
0.8x
0.9x
EV/E&P EBITDAX (3)
2018E 2019E 2020E
4.1x
6.0x
4.5x
4.5x
5.2x
2018E
9.0x
11.2x
3.7x
10.3x
6.6x
EV / E&P EBITDAX (3)
2019E
9.0x
9.5x
10.3x
49x
4,0x
5.4x
4.2x
4.2x
4.9x
5.4x
6.6x
8.6x
6.0x
8.2x
6.6x
8.2x
8.6x
3.7x
4.1x
5.5x
4.5x
4.5x
3.9x
3.9x
4.5x
4.5x
2020E
5.5x
7.1x
6.8x
7.2x
5.5x
6.8x
7.1x
3.7x
EV/E&P DACF (3)
2019E
2018E
9.1x
4,0x
6.1x
4.5x
4.5x
6.1x
2018E
9.1x
11.3x
7.8x
9.7x
Valuation Metrics (1)
10.3x
9.1x
9.7x
10.3x
6.9x
EV / E&P DACF (3)
2019E
5.8x
4.0x
5.5x
5.0x
5.0x
5.5x
6.9x
6.2x
8.8x
6.9x
8.7x
8.8x
2020E
4,2x
6.1x
4.5x
4.3x
4.5x
5.3x
2020E
7.2x
7.1x
7.3x
6.1x
7.1x
7.2x
3.9x
4.3x
Price /
NAV (2)
1.0x
10x
10x
0.8x
1.1x
Price /
NAV (2)
1.0x
08x
09x
EV / Production (3)
(S/Mcle/d
Current
0.9x
$6,216
09x
3,975
2,895
1,835
1.0x $2,630 $2,588
10x
1.0x
2,895 2,835
3,975
09x 9,217
0.9x $8,249
0.9%
10x
2018E
8,559
$5,261
2,958
EV / Production (3)
(S/Mcle/d)
8,284
8,559
2.588
Current 2018E
$2,846
2,83.5
$6,216 $5,261
1,842
6,719
7,997
$6,719
7,997
Confidential
$2,467
EV/ Reserves
(S/Mcfe)
Proved
$1.09
0.63
0.30
Proved
$0.42 $0.76
0.58
1.09
0.63
$1.09
EV/ Reserves
(S/Mce)
2.36
2.36
$2.22
2.36
$2,154 $0.34
PD
$1.73
50.38
1.74
PD
$1.73
3.84
$3.14
3.84
$0.70
$0.77
BAIRD
Growth Metrics (2)
Per Debt-Adj. Share
17-22 CAGR
DACF Production
27%
0%
5%
18%
27%
34%
Per Debt-Adj. Share
17-22 CAGR
DACH Production
25%
27%
28%
20%
100%
20%
3%
10%
24%
25%
25%
24%
31%
17%
17%
17%
24%
25%
26%
Project Bronco | Page 29View entire presentation