Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck
Intro
Net Asset Value
become increasingly complex over time, and Kinnevik's share of proceeds
may significantly deviate from its percentage ownership of the investee
company's issued equity. Accordingly, an increase or decrease in value
of an investee company's equity where liquidation preferences are ap-
plicable may result in a disproportionate increase or decrease in the fair
value of Kinnevik's shareholding. Liquidation preferences may also entail
that the fair value of Kinnevik's investment remains unchanged in spite of
the assessed value of a particular investee company as a whole changing
materially. An unlisted investee company's transition into a publicly listed
company may also affect the value of Kinnevik's shareholding due to the
dismantling or triggering of such provisions.
Liquidation preferences, as described above, naturally become more
relevant during a market drawdown such as the one we are experiencing
during 2022. The majority of our investments carry these types of down-
side protection provisions, and the effect of these provisions become the
most pronounced in companies where we have only invested in the latest
financing round. In these investments, the fair value of our investment
may remain unchanged in spite of material downwards adjustments to
the underlying valuation of each relevant company. At the end of the
quarter, the aggregate fair value impact from liquidation preferences
amounted to approximately SEK 2.4bn and was primarily centred to
a handful of new investments made in 2021 and early 2022. The same
figure amounted to around SEK 0.5bn in the previous quarter, and the
difference was negligible at the end of 2021. As such, the incremental
effect in the second quarter amounts to SEK 1.9bn, and SEK 2.4bn in
the first half of 2022.
This value difference means that if Kinnevik's shareholdings would
not enjoy said liquidation preferences, the fair value of the unlisted port-
folio would be SEK 2.4bn lower. In other terms, the underlying value of
Kinnevik's investments in these companies needs to increase by SEK
2.4bn, or around 40 percent on average, before the accrual of an on-pa-
per return on investment. This notwithstanding, the fair values included
in Kinnevik's net asset value statement correspond to the proceeds
Kinnevik is entitled to receive in the event of a sale of each investment
at the assessed underlying value of each company.
KINNEVIK
Interim Report Q2 2022
Portfolio Overview
Sustainability
AGGREGATE VALUE CHANGES AND DRIVERS
On average, the valuation of each of our companies decreased by more
than 20 percent in the second quarter of 2022, and by more than 30
percent during the first half of 2022. Excluding the companies where
our valuations are underpinned by transactions that took place during
or shortly after the second quarter, the average decrease exceeded 30
percent in the second quarter and amounted to almost 50 percent in
the first half of 2022.
Similar to the previous quarter, the continued material derating in
public growth equities used as valuation benchmarks for our private
businesses was the single-most important driver of the downwards value
change in our unlisted portfolio during the quarter. Indicatively, multiple
contraction had a materially negative effect of SEK 8.4bn on our valuations
in the quarter. Excluding the valuations that are underpinned by arms-
length transactions in the quarter and thereby concluded in the current
valuation environment, the effect of multiple contraction was closer to
SEK 9bn. Revenue growth offset some of the impact of compressing
valuation levels with a positive contribution of around SEK 4.8bn.
The Swedish krona weakened materially in the second quarter, in
particular against the dollar, in aggregate contributing to a positive effect
on the valuations of our unlisted investments of around SEK 1.7bn. As
outlined above, the incremental positive effect of liquidation preferences
in the quarter amounted to SEK 1.9bn. The aggregate positive effect from
these two factors of SEK 3.6bn is what bridges the material downward
reassessments of the underlying valuations of our unlisted portfolio to
the more modest 7 percent write-down outlined in our net asset value
statement. For the first half year, the positive effect of currency movements
amounted to SEK 2.2bn and that of liquidation preferences (in constant
currencies) amounted to SEK 2.2bn, or SEK 4.4bn in total.
OUR INVESTEES RELATIVE TO THEIR VALUATION PEER GROUPS
In our interim report for the first quarter of 2022, we rearranged our NAV
statement. Our aim with the new categorization is to group our private
investments in a more refined way, sorting them with their shared publicly
listed comparable companies in mind. This, we believe, together with the
aggregated financial metrics we are now providing for each category,
Financial Statements
Other
is a step forward in terms of transparency of the performance and our
assessed valuations of our unlisted assets. The table on page 29 outlining
these financial metrics for our new NAV categories and their peer groups
should be read together with the qualitative commentary provided on the
following pages. Please also note that the averages for Kinnevik's unlisted
investees are weighted by fair value and provided as indicative ranges.
For the categories where our companies are growing at materially higher
rates than the peer group average, our valuation multiples are typically
at a premium to the peer group's average. This spread is calibrated by
valuations ascribed our businesses in arms-length transactions and by
the correlation between growth and valuation multiples in public mar-
kets. The average premium is considerably smaller when benchmarking
our valuations against more richly valued constituents in each relevant
peer group. Premiums to the peer group average multiple narrow over
time as our companies continue to outpace the growth of its valuation
benchmarks. When relating our assessed valuations to financial metrics a
year further out than the next twelve months, virtually all of our valuations
are within the ranges of their respective peer group.
VALUE-BASED CARE
Value-Based Care consists of care delivery companies that take risk on,
and are paid on the basis of, patient health outcomes. Our larger invest-
ments in this category - Cityblock and VillageMD - are benchmarked
against a peer set of businesses in various ways delivering or driving a
shift towards value-based care, such as Oak Street Health (OSH), Agilon
Health (AGL), and Signify Health (SGFY). On average, the companies in
the peer set grew revenue by 55 percent in 2021 with gross margins of
25 percent, and trade at around 2x NTM revenues. Our businesses grew
twice as fast with slightly slimmer gross margins and are valued at around
3-4.5x NTM revenues on average.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 8 percent in Cityblock amounts to
SEK 2,959m, down some 12 percent in the quarter. The NTM revenue
multiple has been compressed in line with the peer group average of
around 35 percent, and remains at an unchanged premium to this aver-
age considering Cityblock's revenue growth significantly outpacing the
listed benchmarks while proving sustainable gross margins in its more
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