Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck slide image

Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck

Intro Net Asset Value become increasingly complex over time, and Kinnevik's share of proceeds may significantly deviate from its percentage ownership of the investee company's issued equity. Accordingly, an increase or decrease in value of an investee company's equity where liquidation preferences are ap- plicable may result in a disproportionate increase or decrease in the fair value of Kinnevik's shareholding. Liquidation preferences may also entail that the fair value of Kinnevik's investment remains unchanged in spite of the assessed value of a particular investee company as a whole changing materially. An unlisted investee company's transition into a publicly listed company may also affect the value of Kinnevik's shareholding due to the dismantling or triggering of such provisions. Liquidation preferences, as described above, naturally become more relevant during a market drawdown such as the one we are experiencing during 2022. The majority of our investments carry these types of down- side protection provisions, and the effect of these provisions become the most pronounced in companies where we have only invested in the latest financing round. In these investments, the fair value of our investment may remain unchanged in spite of material downwards adjustments to the underlying valuation of each relevant company. At the end of the quarter, the aggregate fair value impact from liquidation preferences amounted to approximately SEK 2.4bn and was primarily centred to a handful of new investments made in 2021 and early 2022. The same figure amounted to around SEK 0.5bn in the previous quarter, and the difference was negligible at the end of 2021. As such, the incremental effect in the second quarter amounts to SEK 1.9bn, and SEK 2.4bn in the first half of 2022. This value difference means that if Kinnevik's shareholdings would not enjoy said liquidation preferences, the fair value of the unlisted port- folio would be SEK 2.4bn lower. In other terms, the underlying value of Kinnevik's investments in these companies needs to increase by SEK 2.4bn, or around 40 percent on average, before the accrual of an on-pa- per return on investment. This notwithstanding, the fair values included in Kinnevik's net asset value statement correspond to the proceeds Kinnevik is entitled to receive in the event of a sale of each investment at the assessed underlying value of each company. KINNEVIK Interim Report Q2 2022 Portfolio Overview Sustainability AGGREGATE VALUE CHANGES AND DRIVERS On average, the valuation of each of our companies decreased by more than 20 percent in the second quarter of 2022, and by more than 30 percent during the first half of 2022. Excluding the companies where our valuations are underpinned by transactions that took place during or shortly after the second quarter, the average decrease exceeded 30 percent in the second quarter and amounted to almost 50 percent in the first half of 2022. Similar to the previous quarter, the continued material derating in public growth equities used as valuation benchmarks for our private businesses was the single-most important driver of the downwards value change in our unlisted portfolio during the quarter. Indicatively, multiple contraction had a materially negative effect of SEK 8.4bn on our valuations in the quarter. Excluding the valuations that are underpinned by arms- length transactions in the quarter and thereby concluded in the current valuation environment, the effect of multiple contraction was closer to SEK 9bn. Revenue growth offset some of the impact of compressing valuation levels with a positive contribution of around SEK 4.8bn. The Swedish krona weakened materially in the second quarter, in particular against the dollar, in aggregate contributing to a positive effect on the valuations of our unlisted investments of around SEK 1.7bn. As outlined above, the incremental positive effect of liquidation preferences in the quarter amounted to SEK 1.9bn. The aggregate positive effect from these two factors of SEK 3.6bn is what bridges the material downward reassessments of the underlying valuations of our unlisted portfolio to the more modest 7 percent write-down outlined in our net asset value statement. For the first half year, the positive effect of currency movements amounted to SEK 2.2bn and that of liquidation preferences (in constant currencies) amounted to SEK 2.2bn, or SEK 4.4bn in total. OUR INVESTEES RELATIVE TO THEIR VALUATION PEER GROUPS In our interim report for the first quarter of 2022, we rearranged our NAV statement. Our aim with the new categorization is to group our private investments in a more refined way, sorting them with their shared publicly listed comparable companies in mind. This, we believe, together with the aggregated financial metrics we are now providing for each category, Financial Statements Other is a step forward in terms of transparency of the performance and our assessed valuations of our unlisted assets. The table on page 29 outlining these financial metrics for our new NAV categories and their peer groups should be read together with the qualitative commentary provided on the following pages. Please also note that the averages for Kinnevik's unlisted investees are weighted by fair value and provided as indicative ranges. For the categories where our companies are growing at materially higher rates than the peer group average, our valuation multiples are typically at a premium to the peer group's average. This spread is calibrated by valuations ascribed our businesses in arms-length transactions and by the correlation between growth and valuation multiples in public mar- kets. The average premium is considerably smaller when benchmarking our valuations against more richly valued constituents in each relevant peer group. Premiums to the peer group average multiple narrow over time as our companies continue to outpace the growth of its valuation benchmarks. When relating our assessed valuations to financial metrics a year further out than the next twelve months, virtually all of our valuations are within the ranges of their respective peer group. VALUE-BASED CARE Value-Based Care consists of care delivery companies that take risk on, and are paid on the basis of, patient health outcomes. Our larger invest- ments in this category - Cityblock and VillageMD - are benchmarked against a peer set of businesses in various ways delivering or driving a shift towards value-based care, such as Oak Street Health (OSH), Agilon Health (AGL), and Signify Health (SGFY). On average, the companies in the peer set grew revenue by 55 percent in 2021 with gross margins of 25 percent, and trade at around 2x NTM revenues. Our businesses grew twice as fast with slightly slimmer gross margins and are valued at around 3-4.5x NTM revenues on average. The fair value of Kinnevik's 8 percent in Cityblock amounts to SEK 2,959m, down some 12 percent in the quarter. The NTM revenue multiple has been compressed in line with the peer group average of around 35 percent, and remains at an unchanged premium to this aver- age considering Cityblock's revenue growth significantly outpacing the listed benchmarks while proving sustainable gross margins in its more 31
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