Ares US Real Estate Opportunity Fund III
Real Estate Market Overview
COVID-19 has triggered a global recession with divergent impacts across product types
Global
Recessionary
Environment
Impact on
Property
Values
Impact on
Ares' Strategy
The U.S. has experienced dramatic GDP declines since the pandemic's outbreak in Q1 2020(¹)
U.S. GDP is expected to require at least two years of recovery, with a lagging rebound in employment (¹)
We believe the global economy is certain to face headwinds until at least 2022, creating distressed buying opportunities
Public real estate valuations were severely impacted by the outbreak of the pandemic
Since then, different property sectors have signalled divergent recovery profiles
We believe industrial and multifamily sectors are poised to benefit from growing secular tailwinds and robust investor
demand
●
Hotel and retail assets entered severe distress, with forced shutdowns and dramatic shifts in consumer behavior
signalling a prolonged recovery
Ares has dynamically responded to these shifting market conditions across asset classes
Intensive focus on industrial given acceleration of e-commerce penetration and shortening supply chains
Long-term conviction in multifamily given continuing declines in home affordability and muted late-cycle supply
Office evaluated case-by-case, with emphasis on strong markets and distressed pricing
Hotel is also in deep distress, but we believe is poised to recover in the intermediate term, providing potential
opportunities to participate in the recovery on a structured basis given capital market dislocation
●
Office remains TBD, as users grapple with the benefits and limitations of remote work and health-related de-
densification trends
We believe niche sectors such as single-family rental and medical office are also poised to benefit
Retail faces significant challenges given changes in consumer trends and multiplying tenant bankruptcies
Selective opportunities in niche assets are expected to supplement, but not dominate, the portfolio
In the midst of widespread pricing dislocation, Ares will seek to create alpha by pivoting between sectors as these trends evolve
Based on Ares' Real Estate Group's current observations of the market as of August 31, 2020. There is no guarantee or assurance investment objectives will be achieved. The situation
surrounding COVID-19 is fluid and developing rapidly. As such, our views are subject to change at any time. Forward looking statements are not reliable indicators of future events and no
guarantee or assurance is given that such activities will occur as expected or at all. Actual events or conditions are unlikely to be consistent with, and may differ materially from, those assumed.
1. Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts as of September 2020.
ARES
Confidential - Not for Publication or Distribution
24View entire presentation