J.P.Morgan Investment Banking Pitch Book
Summary of preliminary analysis for standalone UGI
Implied share price - rounded to the nearest $0.25 (except 52-week high/low and analyst price targets)
Market metrics
Trading multiples
52-week low/high
For reference only
Analysts price target
For reference only
FV/2019E EBITDA
FV/2020E EBITDA
Price / 2019E EPS
Price / 2020E EPS
Sum of the parts - 2019E
2019E EBITDA basis
For reference only
Sum of the parts-2020E²
2020E EBITDA basis
For reference only
Discounted cash flow analysis
Unlevered (after-tax) discounted
cash flow analysis
$43.60
$43.00
$48.00
$42.25
$43.50
$52.00
$46.25
$53.00
$48.50
Current: $55.42
$59.31
$57.25
$52 25
$57.75
$54.50
$65.00
$63.25
$62.25
$74.25
Metric
$1,483
$1,483
$1,483
$1,668
$2.49
$3.12
$1,483
$1,668
Selected range applied
to metric
Low
9.6x
10.6x
9.50x
9.00x
17.00x
17.00x
9.6x³
$20.00 $30.00 $40.00
$50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00
$90.00
Source: UGI projections and terminal year as provided and approved by UĢI management
Note: Projections based on 09:30 fiscal year end FactSet as of 03/29/19, Valuation date as of 12/31/18, Assumes consolidated net debt of $4.369mm; Assumes NCI for trading multiples of
$2,142mm based on market value (69 4mm units at $30,87% Assumes-178mm diluted shares outstanding based on treasury stock method, Market multiples implied based on 2019E
EBITDA and sum of the parts multiples implied based on 2019 and 2020E EBITDA respectively
Implied multiples based market metrics calculated using 2019E EBITDA
See ilustrative sum of the parts analysis on pages 12 and 13 for more information
10
implied multiples based on sum of the parts calculated using 2010 and 2020E EBITDA: SOTP Sim value used for implied multiple calculated as equity value from SOTP plus consolidated
net debt of $4,369mm plus NC1 of $2.142mm
Deconsolidated free cash flows based on UGI (ex APU) and deconsolidated not debt of $1.407mm
9.0x²
Unlevered (after-tax) DCF
CONFIDENTIAL
High
1151
12.2x
12.00x
10.00x
21,00x
18.50x
10.9x
10.6x²
Discount rate=7.00% -8.00%
Terminal growth rate=2.50%-350%
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