Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book slide image

Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book

AR'S IDENTIFIED STEPS TO JOIN THE ELITE E&P GROUP AR IDENTIFIED STEPS TO IMPROVE VALUATION The market has been receptive to AR's operational and strategic initiatives to improve its share price (as evidenced by its recent outperformance); however, execution risk remains ■ ■ Capital Efficiency: $2.9 billion of drilling capex reduction over next 5 years with production growth targets unchanged - - - FCF Generation: $1.6 Bn cumulative free cash flow growth through 2022 Capital Discipline: - Inventory of 3,300 laterals >10,000' drive efficiencies 18% production CAGR 2018-2022 Grow into FT portfolio by 2020 Growing NGL exposure - Reduce leverage to < 2x Debt-adjusted cash flow and production growth per share in the 22-23% range (AR management figure) Assess Value Acceleration Initiatives: Return of Capital (repay debt, stock buy-back, dividends Conflict of interest mitigation Segment level reporting to provide clarity on E&P ops Confidential MARKET PERCEPTION BAIRD "We believe the focus should now shift to execution as the long term outlook has already baked in substantial future efficiency gains and activity high-grading which AR now has to deliver. - Credit Suisse *... five year plan that includes a double-digit production CAGR... should generate solid returns while throwing off $1.6 billion in free cash flow at the strip... a solid profile that with execution should drive multiple expansion over the coming years. Wells Fargo "While increasing lateral length is a tangible efficiency, and concurrent operations should improve cycle times, it remains unclear how AR will be able to keep D&C spend flat through 2020 while increasing completed lateral feet by 12% in 2019 and 25% in 2020 compared to the 2018 program.- Jefferies "Operationally and financially, we would agree that AR is reaching the next stage of its life cycle, and at an opportune time.....At the upstream level, the E&P entity is reaching a level of scale, leverage, and capital efficiency (forward FCF generation and growth) matched by few US independents" - Evercore ISI "Given the recent push for capital discipline and improved corporate returns, we think the market will view Antero's newfound capital flexibility in the coming years favorably. - Raymond James Project Bronco Page 9
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