Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book
AR'S IDENTIFIED STEPS TO JOIN THE ELITE E&P GROUP
AR IDENTIFIED STEPS TO IMPROVE VALUATION
The market has been receptive to AR's operational and strategic initiatives to improve its share price (as
evidenced by its recent outperformance); however, execution risk remains
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Capital Efficiency: $2.9 billion of drilling capex reduction over
next 5 years with production growth targets unchanged
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FCF Generation: $1.6 Bn cumulative free cash flow growth
through 2022
Capital Discipline:
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Inventory of 3,300 laterals >10,000' drive efficiencies
18% production CAGR 2018-2022
Grow into FT portfolio by 2020
Growing NGL exposure
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Reduce leverage to < 2x
Debt-adjusted cash flow and production growth per
share in the 22-23% range (AR management figure)
Assess Value Acceleration Initiatives:
Return of Capital (repay debt, stock buy-back, dividends
Conflict of interest mitigation
Segment level reporting to provide clarity on E&P ops
Confidential
MARKET PERCEPTION
BAIRD
"We believe the focus should now shift to execution as the long term outlook
has already baked in substantial future efficiency gains and activity high-grading
which AR now has to deliver. - Credit Suisse
*... five year plan that includes a double-digit production CAGR... should generate
solid returns while throwing off $1.6 billion in free cash flow at the strip... a solid
profile that with execution should drive multiple expansion over the coming
years. Wells Fargo
"While increasing lateral length is a tangible efficiency, and concurrent
operations should improve cycle times, it remains unclear how AR will be able
to keep D&C spend flat through 2020 while increasing completed lateral feet
by 12% in 2019 and 25% in 2020 compared to the 2018 program.- Jefferies
"Operationally and financially, we would agree that AR is reaching the next stage
of its life cycle, and at an opportune time.....At the upstream level, the E&P entity
is reaching a level of scale, leverage, and capital efficiency (forward FCF
generation and growth) matched by few US independents" - Evercore ISI
"Given the recent push for capital discipline and improved corporate returns, we
think the market will view Antero's newfound capital flexibility in the coming
years favorably. - Raymond James
Project Bronco
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