Morgan Stanley Investment Banking Pitch Book
Morgan Stanley
Broker Estimates for Orange
Select Analyst Estimates and Targets (1)
SMM, except per share data
Broker
Cowen
Truist
Piper Sandler
Canaccord
Stephens
Needham
Goldman Sachs
Bank of America
Cit
UBS
Mean
Cowen
Median
Truist
Piper Sandler
Morgan Stanley MS
Canaccord
Stephens
Needham
GS
BofA
Citi
UBS
Date of Report
8/4/2022
8/4/2022
8/4/2022
8/4/2022
8/4/2022
8/4/2022
8/4/2022
8/4/2022
8/4/2022
8/5/2022
8/4/2022
Following Q2'22 Earnings
Announcement, broker price targets
range decreased from $19-$29
Rating
Outperform
Buy
Buy
Overweight 25.00
Buy
Buy
Current
Price Target
Overweight 25.00
Buy
28.00
Neutral
28.00
Neutral
25.00
Equal Weight 21.00
24.00
22.00
20.00
20.00
19.00
$23.36
$24.00
Price Target
Methodology
-12x CY2023E AVI
Revenue
DCF (20x CY2032
FCF TV)
DCF (25x CY2026E
FCF)
10x CY2023E AVI
Revenue
9.7x AV/CY2023E
Revenue
85% 7.5x AV/
Revenue; 15%
Strategic Ppaids
-40x CY2023E AV/ AV/Revenue,
FCF
AV/FCF
25x CY2027E
AV/FCF
7x CY2023E AV/
Revenue
8.0x CY2023E AV/
Revenue
8.0x CY2023E AV/
Revenue
Valuation
Methodology
Notes
1. Latest available broker estimates, excludes Berenberg due to price target as of 2/17/2022
PROJECT ORANGE
AV/FCF
AV/FCF, DCF
AV/FCF, DCF
CY22E
$335
AV/FCF
$334
$334
AV/Revenue $334
$334
AV/Revenue $334
AV/Revenue
AV/Revenue $332
$333
AV/Revenue $334
AV/Revenue $334
$333
$334
$334
Revenue
CY23E
$415
$424
$421
$421
$422
$415
$412
$413
$420
$394
$407
$415
$415
CY24E
$515
$507
$492
$502
$521
$484
$475
$499
$502
CY22E
87%
86%
87%
87%
88%
87%
86%
86%
87%
83%
87%
87%
87%
Post earnings, median CY22
revenue estimates increased
from $332; CY23 estimates
decreased from $417
PRELIMINARY AND CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
Gross Margin
CY23E
87%
85%
85%
87%
87%
87%
85%
86%
85%
78%
87%
85%
86%
CY24E
.
87%
87%
85%
87%
85%
78%
88%
85%
87%
CY22E
$54
$53
$46
$46
$57
$52
$60
$53
$53
Adj. EBITDA
CY23E CY24E
$59
4
$72
$65
$60
$72
$63
$75
$66
$65
.
$98
$90
$93
$97
$79
$89
$91
$92
CY22E
$87
$81
$83
$80
$81
$80
$64
$85
$79
$84
$82
$81
$81
Free Cash Flow
CY23E CY24E
$123
$98
$114
$105
$114
$107
$106
$84
$98
$98
$95
$104
$105
REFERENCE MATERIALS
.
.
.
$133
$146
$115
$110
$126
$109
$123
$121
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