Spring 2023 Solar Industry Update

Executive Summary Global Solar Deployment . IEA reported that in 2022, 231 GWdc of PV was installed globally, bringing cumulative PV installs to 1.2 TWdc. China's annual PV installations grew 57% y/y in 2022, representing 42% of total global demand, with the majority coming from distributed PV. The U.S. was the second-largest market in terms of cumulative and annual installations. Analyst project 2023 annual installations to grow to more than 300 GW and by 2025 more than 400 GW. U.S. PV Deployment . • In 2022, PV represented approximately 46% of new U.S. electric generation capacity, compared to 4% in 2010. Solar still represented only 9.0% of net summer capacity and 4.7% of annual generation in 2022. However, 16 states generated more than 5% of their electricity from solar, with California leading the way at 27.3%. The United States installed 17.0 GWac (20.2 GWdc) of PV in 2022, ending the year with 110.1 GWac (140.6 GWdc) of cumulative PV installations. The United States installed approximately 14.1 GWh, 4.8 GWac of energy storage onto the electric grid in 2022, up 34% y/y. PV System and Component Pricing • The median system price for a select group of utility-scale PV projects in 2022 was $1.49/Wac-up 13% y/y. The median reported price by EnergySage for residential PV systems increased 6.3% y/y to $2.85/Wdc - the third straight period of increase, after never having done so before. After plunging to a 1.5-year low of $20/kg in mid-January, global polysilicon spot prices rebounded to $30/kg in mid-February and then dropped to $24/kg by mid-April. Global module prices have declined steadily since fall 2022 despite strong demand, reaching lows in April 2023 that have not been seen for 2 years. Global Manufacturing • In 2022, global PV shipments were approximately 283 GW-an increase of 46% from 2021. In 2022, 96% of PV shipments were mono c-Si technology, compared to 35% in 2015. N-type mono c-Si grew to 51% - up from 20% in 2021 (and 5% in 2019). In 2022, the United States produced a around 5 GW of PV modules. U.S. PV Imports • According to U.S. Census data, 28.7 GWdc of modules and 2.5 GWdc of cells were imported in 2022, an increase of 21% y/y (+5 GW) and 7% y/y (178 MW), respectively. Collectively, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia represented 73% of c-Si module imports (75% including c-Si cells). According to U.S. Census data, 2.5 GWdc of cells were imported in 2022. Quarterly cell imports grew for the second quarter in a row in Q4 2022 (+60 MWdc, +9% q/q). In 2022, only 10% (2.7 GWdc) of modules reported a tariff, compared to 56% (13.2 GWdc) in 2021. NREL | 3 A list of acronyms and abbreviations is available at the end of the presentation.

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