Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book
PRO FORMA AMGP CORP VS. PEERS
Selected Midstream Valuations
C-Corp
E&P G&P
OKE
(1)
(2)
(3)
TRGP
WMB
Median
CNXM
EQM
HESM
NBLX
WES
Median
AMGP PF
AM SQ
Market Stats
Market
Cap
$28,216
12,874
33,432
$28,216
$1,294
6,446
1,274
1,601
7,098
$1,601
Firm
Value
$5,562
$36,748
18,386
59,953
$36,748
$1,766
9,476
1,218
2,769
12,065
$2,769
$8,893 $11,171
$6,963
Firm Value /
Adj EBITDA
2019E
14.4x
11.7x
12.0x
8.2x
9.3x
11.0x
12.0x 11.4x
10.2x
11.1x
10,2x
11.3x
2020E
9.9x
125x
9.7x
11.4x
6.9x
7.7x
8.6x
7.8x
9.8x
7.8x
9.1x
8.5x
Source: S&P Capital 10 SEC Filings and Antero management, Market data is as of October 5, 2018
EBITDA less projected GP/IDR distributions.
Valuation Stats
Price /
(2)
CAFD per LPs
2019E 2020E
15.1x
13.1x
10.3x
9.7x
9.5x
13.1x 10.8x
10.1x
10.4x
10.1x
12.9x
10.8x
10.8x
12.8x 11.4x
12.0x
9.9x
8.1x
8.2x
8.5x
10.1x
8.5x
8.8x
10.3x
Yield
2019E
5.2% 5.8%
6.2%
5.5%
5.5% 6.2%
7.9%
9.5%
7.1%
6.5%
8.9%
2020E
7.9%
7.1%
6.4%
6.2%
9.0%
10.8%
8.1%
7.8%
9.3%
9.0%
9.2%
7.5% 5.7%
Financial Health
2019E Dist.
Coverage
1.3x
1.3x
1.7x
1.3x
1.5x
1.1x
1.1x
1.9x
1.1x
1.1x
1.2x
Preliminary Draft
1.2x
Net Debt /
2018E EBITDA
3.5x
3.7x
4.4x
3.7x
2.5x
3.0x
NM
2.3x
3.4x
2.7x
3.1x
2.0x
(4)
Defined as Price per LP unit divided by cash available for distribution to the LP unit holders under a full payout scenario.
Assumes AMGP purchases 100% of AM public units (188.1 million on a fully diluted basis) with a combination of equity and cash; AMGP issues 301.3 million shares to current AM unitholders.
Also assumes that AMGP issues 17.354 million shares in exchange for 100% of the Series B units.
Represents pro forma net debt/ LTM EBITDA as of 1/1/19.
Growth Metrics
2019E-21E
Growth CAGR
EBITDA
13%
16%
6%
13%
20%
12%
33%
17%
10%
17%
20%
BAIRD
21%
Project Bronco
DPU
10%
5%
12%
10%
15%
9%
14%
20%
5%
14%
24%
19%
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