Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Distribution Accretion / (Dilution)
Pre - Unitholder Tax(1,2) | AM & AMGP | AR Base Case
Status Quo AM:
Pro Forma AMGP at 1.679x:)
Pro Forma AMGP at 1.797x:"
$ Acc / (Dil):
$ Acc / (Dil):
PF AMGP Coverage:
Exchange Ratio
Bee
AM Accretion / (Dilution) - %
At 1.797x Exchange Ratio -1.797 XR 1.679x XR
1.797x
1.821x
1.846x
1.870x
1.884x
(1) $0.91
(2) $0.85
$0.91
(6.6%)
0.4%
2H 2018E
0.8%
2H 2018E
1.2%
($0.06)
$0.00
1.205x
2019E
8.6%
9.5%
1.0%
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
9.4%
2019E
$2.21
$2.23
$2.39
$0.02
$0.18
1.24
2020E
10.3%
10.8%
11.3%
2020E
$2.85
$2.92
$3.13
$0.07
$0.28
1.131x
11.2%
10.3%
10.8%
10.3%
2021E
11.3%
11.8%
3.1%
2021E
$3.42
$3.52
$3.77
$0.10
$0.35
1.11%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
10.5%
2022E
12.0%
1.076x
11.9%
3.2%
2022E
$4.10
$4.23
$4.53
$0.13
$0.43
AM Proposal
AMGP Accretion / (Dilution) - %
Exchange Ratio
Status Quo AMGP:
Pro Forma AMGP:
$ Acc / (Dil):
PF AMGP Coverage: 1.205x
1.821x
1.846x
64.6%
1.870x
2H 2018E
1.884x
$0.31
$0.51
$0.20
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
2H 2018E
63.1%
49.1%
60.2%
2019E
$0.89
$1.33
$0.44
1.224x
Source: Management projections and FactSet as of 8/30/2018.
Pre- Unitholder Tax 1.797x represents implied XR at 1.614x equity XR and cash consideration of $3.415 / unit. Cash assumed to be used to purchase additional secondary shares.
Post - Unitholder Tax 1.679x represents implied XR at 1.61-6x equity XR; cash used to pay taxes, with any excess cash assumed to be used to purchase additional secondary shares.
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
2019E
All-In XR
Gross Cash Consideration
Taxes Payable
1.614x
Net Cash Consideration
XR Equity Component
Secondary Shares Purchased 0.065
Net After-Tax XR
1.679x
45.2%
29.5%
2020E
$1.35
$1.74
$0.40
1.131x
2020E
29.5%
28.3%
27.2%
26.1%
20.0%
25.0%
2021E
$1.75
$2.10
$0.35
1.119
2021E
20.0%
18.9%
17.9%
16.9%
15.9%
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COCHANT BANKING
12.9%
2022E
$2.23
$2.52
$0.29
1.797x
$3.415
($2.29)
$1.13
1.076x
2022E
12.9%
12.0%
11.0%
10.00
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