Capacity, Applications, and Outlook
Large-Sized Wafers to Arrive at 83.1% in Capacity amidst
Established Tendency in 2022
The tendency of large-sized products has been established for 2022, and
the corresponding ratio will surpass 80%. The single GW investment cost
for large-sized products is constantly dropping at the current stage, where the
apparent advantages of cost-performance ratio in production lines, as well as
the compatibility with 182-210mm wafers from most new capacity, are
prompting an estimated capacity of 422.6GW for large-sized wafers (182mm &
210mm) in 2022 under a ratio of 83.1%, of which 210mm would account for
164GW at 32.25%. Large-sized wafers (182mm & 210mm) will successively
complete in capacity layout by 2023, and arrive at a market share of 89.97%
then, where 210mm would attain a capacity of 274.6GW.
■Reserve capacity is either technically transformed or accelerated in exit
as wafers below 166mm deplete in market share. Taking into account cost
and the upper restrictions in the technical transformation of equipment, partial
production lines of 166mm wafers have accelerated in the speed of phasing out
or upgrade to 182mm, and production lines with a weak compatibility and
higher cost will gradually exit from the market, which results in an apparent
reduction in market share, where total capacity for 166mm and below wafers
will drop to about 16.89%.
■The progress of wafer thinning has exceeded expectation, followed by a
sizable reduction in silicon consumption. Businesses are constantly
lowering silicon consumption in order to cut down their cost amidst the
obstinately high prices of raw materials at the current stage. The mainstream
thickness has swiftly switched from 165μm to 160/155 μm, and continues to
march towards 150 μm. Silicon consumption is likely to drop from 2.7-2.8g/W
during 2021 to roughly 2.6g/W.
TRENDFORCE
Capacity Ratio for Various Sized Wafers between 2020 and 2025 (Unit: %)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
2.31%
2.26%
17.05%
32.25%
46.35%
59.16%
68.96%
50%
95.43%
40%
30%
31.77%
50.86%
43.63%
37.33%
28.67%
51.18%
20%
10%
16.89%
10.03%
0%
2020
2021
2022(F)
166&below 182
2023(F)
210
3.51%
2024(F)
2.37%
2025(F)
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