Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
AM DCF Analysis | AR Base Volumes Case
Valuation Effective Date: 6/30/2018
Discounted Levered DCF Analysis
Levered DCF Attributable to AM LP Unitholders
Discount Rate
10.0%
12.0%
9.0x
LP DCF per Unit
Discount Factor
PV of LP DCF per Unit
$38.81
$36.67
$34.68
2H 2018E
$1.08
0.976
$1.05
2022E DCF Multiple
Disc. LP DCF Total
Terminal Multiple
Terminal Disc. Factor
Implied Terminal Value per Unit
Implied Value per Unit
10.5x
$43.72
Discounted Levered DCF Analysis
Supplemental Calculation Detail
$41.27
$39.01
2019E
2020E
$2.74 $3.24
0.826
$2.49 $2.67
0.909
Source: Management projections and FactSet as of 8/30/2018.
12.0x
$48.64
$45.88
$43.33
2021E
$3.75
0.751
$2.82
2022E
$4.29
$9.03
10.5
0.716
$32.24
$41.27
Discounted Distribution Analysis
Distributions Attributable to LP Unitholders
Discount Rate
10.0%
12.0%
LP Distribution Per Unit
8.0%
Discount Factor
PV of LP Dist. per Unit
$47.23
$44.52
$42.02
2022E Distribution Yield
7.0%
Discounted Distribution Analysis
Supplemental Calculation Detail
Disc. LP Dist. Total
Terminal Yield
Terminal Disc. Factor
Implied Terminal Value per Unit
Implied Value per Unit
$52.82
$49.76
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
2H 2018E 2019E 2020E
$0.91 $2.21 $2.85
0.976
$0.89
0.909 0.826
$2.01 $2.36
6.0%
$60.28
$56.75
$53.50
2021E
$3.42
0.751
$2.57
2022E
$4.10
$7.82
7.0%
0.716
$41.94
$49.76
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&CO
ENERGY INVESTMENTS
MERCHANT BANKING
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