Maersk Investor Presentation Deck
Guidance
Guidance for 2020
A.P. Moller-Maersk expects earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortisation (EBITDA) of around USD 5.5bn, before restructuring and
integration costs.
The organic volume growth in Ocean is expected to be in line with or
slightly lower than the average estimated market growth of 1-3% for
2020.
The accumulated guidance on gross capital expenditures excl. acquisitions
(CAPEX) for 2020-2021 is still expected to be USD 3.0-4.0bn. A high cash
conversion (cash flow from operations compared to EBITDA) is expected
for both years.
The outlook and guidance for 2020 is subject to significant uncertainties
and impacted by the current outbreak of the Coronavirus in China, which
has significantly lowered visibility on what to expect in 2020. As factories
in China are closed for longer than usual in connection with the Chinese
New Year and as a result of the Coronavirus, we expect a weak start to the
year.
The guidance for 2020 is also subject to uncertainties related to the
implementation of IMO 2020 and the impact on bunker fuel prices and
freight rates combined with the weaker macroeconomic conditions and
other external factors.
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Annual Report 2019
Sensitivity guidance
A.P. Moller - Maersk's guidance for 2020 depends on several
factors. Based on the expected earnings level and all else being
equal, the sensitivities for 2020 for four key assumptions are listed
in the table below:
Factors
Container freight rate
Container freight volume
Bunker price
(net of expected BAF coverage)
Rate of exchange
(net of hedges)
Change
+/- 100 USD/FFE
+/- 100,000 FFE
+/- 100 USD/tonne
+/- 10% change in USD
Effect on
EBITDA
(Rest of year)
+/- USD 1.3bn
+/- USD 0.1bn
-/+ USD 0.4bn
+/- USD 0.2bn
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