Evercore Investment Banking Pitch Book
Preliminary Valuation of SIRE Common Units
Sensitivity Cases - Assumptions
Sensitivity Case # 1
Sensitivity Case # 2
■ Domestic and export net realized pricing reflects IHS netback forecasts less $5.00 and $30.00 per
metric ton, respectively, from 2022E to 2028E
Net Realized
Pricing
Soda Ash
Volumes
Operating
Costs
EVERCORE
► Based on the average historical difference between IHS pricing and SIRE realized pricing from
2012A to 2019A rounded to the nearest $1.00
■ Same deca utilization assumptions as SIRE
Financial Projections
■ Soda ash production capacity utilization of
96.0%, consistent with 2012A-2019A historical
average
▸ Any reduction in deca-related production
is assumed to be replaced through
increased trona mining
► Results in 2.40 million mtpa of soda ash
production throughout projection period
■ Unit 8 Expansion reaches FID by year-end
2022E, adding 1.0 million metric tons of new
soda ash production capacity
Confidential - Preliminary and Subject to Change
►Incremental capacity comes online at the
beginning of 2025E
■ Same deca and capacity utilization
assumptions as 1
■ Before considering the cost effects of additional trona mining, non-freight operating costs as a
percentage of net revenue are assumed to be:
► Consistent with SIRE Financial Projections as a percentage of net revenue for 2022E, 2023E
and 2024E; resulting in gross margins of 40.9%, 39.3% and 39.3%, respectively
▸ Adjusted in 2025E and thereafter in line with the five-year trailing average gross margin through
2022E of 37.1%
■ To account for the cost effects of increased trona mining given reduced availability of deca,
production-related costs (energy, personnel, materials, maintenance and other) were increased in
proportion to the increase in mining-related production volumes relative to available capacity
(excluding deca)
► Results in lower gross margins than those that would be achieved before giving effect to
increased trona mining
■ Royalties and production taxes based on a percentage of net revenue consistent with SIRE Financial
Projections
11
Sensitivity Case # 3
■ Domestic and export net pricing reflects IHS
netback forecasts less $20.00 and $35.00 per
metric ton, respectively, from 2022E to 2028E
▸ Discounts informed by the difference
between IHS pricing and SIRE realized
pricing in 2019A (the most recent year
unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic)
■ Same as SIRE Financial Projections
■ Non-freight operating costs as a percentage of
net revenue are assumed to be:
► Consistent with SIRE Financial
Projections as a percentage of net
revenue for 2022E, 2023E and 2024E;
resulting in gross margins of 40.9%,
39.3% and 39.3%, respectively
►Adjusted to 37.1% in 2025E and
thereafter, in line with the five-year
trailing average gross margin through
2022E
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