Spring 2023 Solar Industry Update slide image

Spring 2023 Solar Industry Update

Generation (TWh) Capacity (GW) NREL Report on Projected BIL + IRA Impacts Using ReEDS (the Regional Energy Deployment System), a team at NREL looked at the impact of IRA + BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from 2023 to 2030. They found: 1500 1000 500 0 44 4K 2K OK No New Policy Mid IRA-BIL Constrain. Mid Constrain. 2022 2026 2030 2022 2026 2030 2022 2026 2030 Diff. in Generation (TWh) Diff. in Capacity (GW) 400 200 0 1K HI OK -1K IRA-BIL Technology Type Mid Constrain. Imports Battery PHES 2022 2026 2030 2022 2026 2030 Solar Wind-Offshore Wind-Onshore Geo Hydro Bio & LFG OGS Gas-CT Gas-CC-CCS Gas-CC Coal-CCS Coal Nuclear . Clean electricity could grow from 41% of total generation in 2022, to 71-90% by 2030. Without IRA+BIL, clean electricity would only account for 46-52% of the grid. This is mainly the result of increased production from wind and solar, supplemented by battery storage and long-distance transmission. Annual power sector CO2 emissions could decline by 72-91% below 2005 levels by 2030. Estimated avoided climate damages range from $160B to $230B. IRA+BIL are estimated to lead to a net decrease in power system costs of $8B-$25B annually by 2030 or $50B-115B from 2023 to 2030. Annual average deployment rates for wind and solar combined range from 44 GW/yr-93 GW/yr. Source: Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System (nrel.gov)
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