Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Contribution Analysis | AR Downside Volumes Case
AMGP DCF Contribution Based On Actual Forecasted Taxes (Including on Series B Cash Flow)
(1)
(12)
Contribution Analysis Implied Ownership
2017A DCF
2018E DCF
2019E DCF
2020E DCF
2021E DCF
2022E DCF
2017A Distributions
2018E Distributions
2019E Distributions
2020E Distributions
2021E Distributions
2022E Distributions
76.1%
70.8%
69.1%
66.2%
65.7%
65.0%
82.9%
75.9%
71.9%
69.4%
67.9%
A.M
66.6%
AMGP
23.9%
29.2%
30.9%
33.8%
34.3%
35.0%
17.1%
24.1%
28.1%
30.6%
32.1%
33.4%
Implied Exchange Ratio | Series B Adjusted (1,2)
AMGP Proposal:
1.797x
2017A DCF
2018E DCF
2019E DCF
2020E DCF
2021E DCF
2022E DCF
2017A Distributions
2018E Distributions
2019E Distributions
2020E Distributions
2021E Distributions
2022E Distributions
Source Management projections. FactSet as of 8/30/2018
Note: AM DCF calculated as LP interest in EBITOA less interest expense, maintenance capex, and tax withholding reimbursements paid to AR. AMGP DCF calculated as IDR DCF from M DR LLC
GBA and cash taxes plus post-tax Series B payments.
Note: AM distributions calculated as distributions attributable to LP unitholders. AMGP distributions defined as distributions attributable to IDR, LLC less taxes paid on full distributions available to IDR,
LLC GRA
Note: Cach taxshield from Series 8 depreciation of -S6mm per year.
Impled exchange ratios utilize adjusted AMGP share count of fully diluted AMGP shares outstanding 18.5mm converted Series 8 units.
AM Proposal: 1.710x XR and $3.00 cash consideration / unit, AMGP Proposal: 1.614x XR and $3.415 cach consideration / unit.
I
I
I
U
LL
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II
I
I
U
11
I
I
I
I
I
TI
11
II
AM Proposal: 1.884x
2.421x
2.234x
1.959x
1.919x
1.856x
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
2.270x
2.559x
2.115x
1.996x
3.193x
3.158x
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COI:
ENERGY INVESTMENTS
MERCHANT BANKING
5.364x
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