Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book
2 AMGP DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
($ in millions, except per share data)
Distribution from IDRs
Less: Series B Profit Interest
Less: G&A Expense
Less: Federal and State Taxes
AMGP Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Present Value Calculation
Midpoint Cost of Capital (1)
Midpoint Terminal Multiple (2)
Terminal Value (3)
Periods to Discount
Present Value of Cash Flows
Present Value of Terminal Value
Implied Enterprise Value
Less: Net Debt (4)
Implied Equity Value
Common Shares Outstanding (4)
Implied AMGP Common Share Price
Discount
Rate
16.50%
15.80%
14.50%
(3)
(4)
AMGP Modified Coverage Case
Terminal Multiple
16.0x
$20.14
$20.61
$21.53
17.1x
$21.28
Three Months
Ending,
12/31/18E
$21.78
$22.76
$43
(2)
(1)
Source: Antero management. Assumes present value date as of October 5, 2018.
(1) Represents midpoint of Baird's selected AMGP WACC sensitivity range (see page 53).
(2)
Represents median of comparable transactions (see page 66).
Based on 2022E unlevered free cash flow of $414 million.
Represents estimated net debt and common shares outstanding as of September 30, 2018.
(10)
$30
15.8%
17.1x
0.12
$828
3,805
$4,633
$4,633
186.2
$24.88
18.0x
$22.16
$22.69
$23.71
2019E
$236
(12)
(2)
(56)
$165
0.74
For the Year Ending December 31,
2020E
2021E
Discount
Rate
16.50%
15.80%
14.50%
$355
(19)
(2)
(85)
$249
1.74
Trellminan. Draft
16.0x
$22.99
$23.54
$24.59
$462
(26)
(2)
(110)
$324
2.74
AMGP Management Case
Terminal Multiple
2022E
17.1x
$24.30
$24.88
$26.00
$589
(33)
(2)
(140)
$414
3.74
18.0x
$25.32
$25.92
$27.10
****
BAIRD
Terminal
Value
$7,087
4.24
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