Engine No. 1 Activist Presentation Deck
ExxonMobil's world view has resulted in a failure to position
itself for success in lower demand scenarios
ā
Mb/d
While new oil and gas capex will be required under even aggressive decarbonization
pathways, ExxonMobil relies on forecasts that discount the possibility of a material
energy transition, most recently the IEA stated policies (STEPS) scenario that looks
only at stated policies, but these are likely to evolve including this year at COP 26
This worldview has resulted in aggressive spending and no material efforts at even
gradual diversification, which leaves little means to protect shareholder value in
alternate demand scenarios (between the top and bottom lines below)
ExxonMobil's oil demand projection vs. IEA scenarios and Paris goals (in million barrels per day)
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110
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ExxonMobil
IEA Delayed Recovery Scenario
IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 case
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
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IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
IEA Sustainable Development Scenario (Paris-compliant <2degC)
Chart Source: ExxonMobil demand of 110mb/d of liquids in 2040 as per 2020 10-K, adjusted for the IEA STEPS demand for biofuels.
(ExxonMobil does not provide a biofuels estimate, although even the Company's 2040 estimated liquids demand of 110mb/d is higher than IEA STEPS
demand estimate of 109mb/d). All other scenarios from IEA World Energy Outlook 2020. Datapoints other than 2020, 2030 and 2040 estimated on a linear
basis using constant CAGR.
REENERGIZE
EXXON//
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