Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Distribution Accretion / (Dilution)
Pre Unitholder Tax(1,2) | AM & AMGP I AR Downside Volumes Case
Status Quo AM:
Pro Forma AMGP at 1.679x:)
Pro Forma AMGP at 1.797x:"
Bee
AM Accretion / (Dilution) - %
At 1.797x Exchange Ratio
$ Acc / (Dil):
$ Acc / (Dil):
PF AMGP Coverage:
Exchange Ratio
1.821x
1.846x
1.870x
1.884x
2H 2018E
(3.00)
(9.4%)
(1) $0.86
(2) $0.78
(3.0%)
$0.83
($0.08)
($0.03)
1.205x
2H 2018E
(2.6%)
(1)
(2)
-1.797X1.679x XR
(5.3)
(12:09)
2019E
2019E
(5.0%)
$2.15
$1.89
$2.02
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
($0.26)
($0.12)
1.224
2020E
11.2%
11.8%
12.3%
12.8%
2020E
12.7%
$2.58
$2.68
$2.87
$0.10
$0.29
1.131x
9.2%
10.2%
1.5%
2021E
2021E
10.1%
$2.97
$3.02
$3.23
$0.05
$0.26
1.119
1.6%
3.6%
4.68
1.6%
(5.1%)
5.0%
2022E
2022E
$3.42
$3.25
$3.47
($0.17)
$0.05
1.076x
AM Proposal
AMGP Accretion / (Dilution) - %
Exchange Ratio
Status Quo AMGP:
Pro Forma AMGP:
$ Acc / (Dil):
PF AMGP Coverage: 1.205x
1.797x
1.821x
1.846x
71.1%
1.870x
2H 2018E
1.884x
$0.27
$0.46
$0.19
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
2H 2018E
71.1%
68.0%
66.5%
33.0%
65.1%
2019E
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
$0.85
$1.12
$0.28
1.224x
Source: Management projections and FacBet as of 8/30/2018.
Pre Unitholder Tax 1.797x represents implied XR at 1.614x equity XR and cash consideration of $3.415 / unit. Cash assumed to be used to purchase additional secondary shares.
Post - Unitholder Tax 1.679x represents implied XR at 1.61-equity XR; cash used to pay taxes, with any excess cash assumed to be used to purchase additional secondary shares.
2019E
31.8%
All-In XR
Gross Cash Consideration
Taxes Payable
Net Cash Consideration
XR Equity Component
Secondary Shares Purchased
Net After-Tax XR
29.5%
38.4%
2020E
$1.15
$1.60
$0.44
1.131x
2020E
38.4%
37.2%
36.0%
34.9%
25.6%
33.8%
2021E
$1.43
$1.80
$0.37
1.119x
2021E
25.6%
24.5%
23.46
22.4%
21.4%
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COCHANT BANKING
10.5%
1.797x
$3.415
(52.29)
$1.13
1.614x
0.065
1.679x
2022E
$1.75
$1.93
$0.18
1.076x
2022E
10.5%
9.3%
10.1%
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