Baird Investment Banking Pitch Book
RETURN OF CAPITAL INITIATIVES
POTENTIAL SHARE REPURCHASE ECONOMICS
Implied Share Price
Announcement
Date
$20.39
AR
Today
Company
Hess Corporation
03/08/18
03/07/18 Devon Energy
QEP Resources
02/28/18
02/23/18 Cabot Oil
02/15/18
02/15/18 Encana Corporation
02/14/18 Laredo Petroleum
02/06/18
Pioneer
01/29/18
Gulfport Energy Corporation
SELECTED STOCK BUY-BACK ANNOUNCEMENTS & MARKET REACTION
Market Reaction (¹)
5-days
Noble Energy
Mean
Median
Annualized Returns
Source: FactSet and S&P Capital IQ as of April 13, 2018.
(1) Market reaction defined as one day post-announcement.
(2) Relative performance based on S&P E&P 500 Index.
9%
AR 2020
Buyback
Value (SMM)
$24.21
(+19%)
9%
AR 2021
No Multiple Expansion
$1,000
1,000
1,250
720
750
400
200
100
100
$613
$720
% of
Shares O/S
$26.26
(+29%)
6.8%
6.1%
60.2%
6.5%
5.8%
3.7%
10.4%
0.3%
4.5%
11.6%
6.1%
1-day
0.5%
10.8%
2.4%
(0.3%)
(1.2%)
5.0%
1.3%
4.5%
5.4%
4.5%
4.4%
11.1%
1.6%
1.3%
16.6%
25.4%
(3,0%)
14.5%
(2.5%)
1.1%
6.7%
9.8%
(1.0%)
0.8%
(8.9%) (24.3%) (11.0%)
30-days
1.0%
4.5%
6.8%
5.5%
$51.60
(+153%)
59%
AR 2020
AR 2021
Elite Multiples Group
1-day
Benchmark Performance
(0,4%)
(0.4%)
(0.1%)
2.9%
(0.3%)
(0.3%)
(0.3%)
(1.8%)
(2.6%)
$55.68
(+173%)
40%
(0.4%)
(0.3%)
5-days
0.4%
0.4%
30-days
12.0%
9.3%
(2.2%)
0.3%
(1.6%)
0.9%
(1.6%)
0.9%
(1.6%)
0.9%
(5.2%)
(0.5%)
(8.6%) (12.0%)
(2.2%)
(1.6%)
1.5%
0.9%
1
1
I
Confidential
1-day
0.8%
5.0%
10.9%
[0.0%)
(0.9%)
5.3%
3.1%
(6.3%)
152
1.9%
0.8%
AR Full-Cycle
Drilling ROR
33%
Relative Performance (2)
5-days
28%
Per AR
Mgmt.
4.1%
5.0%
3.8%
6.6%
12.7%
BAIRD
(0.9%)
8.3%
(15.8%)
3.1%
4.2%
30-days
4.6%
16.1%
(3.2%)
13.6%
8.9%
1.4%
1.1%
5.3%
3.0%
Project Bronco | Page 12View entire presentation