Engine No. 1 Activist Presentation Deck
Assumptions Regarding Impact of Population Growth
ExxonMobil points to population
growth, particularly in the developing
world, and the historical page of
change in the industry in predicting
future growth in fossil fuel demand
●
This conclusion does not necessarily
follow, however, as continued energy
demand growth could also accelerate
global decarbonization efforts
Oil Demand - Current Trajectory vs Paris (<20C) Trajectory
By 2nd stocktake demand is
15% ahead of a <2C pathway
3
Oil Demand (Mbpd)
110
Quote and Chart Source: Redburn Oil Majors: Lost in Transition report, September 5, 2019.
100
90
80
70
60
Demand is
expected to grow
0.5% pa to 2040
2016
2017
2018
2019
First Paris
stocktake in 2023
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
1
U
Adverse climatic effects
pose severe downside
risks to demand
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Paris (<2°C) Trajectory
Current Trajectory
"If no significant action is taken between now and 2040 oil demand is expected to be c52% higher than
required under a <2 degree compliant pathway. In this scenario, adverse climatic and weather effects
present considerable downside risk to oil demand." - Redburn, Sept. 5, 2019
• Historical rates of response to climate change may also be poor predictors, given that
efforts may accelerate as impacts grow increasingly clear, and the developing countries
ExxonMobil is counting on for demand growth are likely to suffer the worst impacts of
climate change
• ~2/3 of the world's emissions come from countries with net zero by 2050 emissions goals,
and as soon as later this year at COP 26 countries may significantly increase their
commitments, as the US has already indicated it will do
REENERGIZE
EXXON//
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