Budget 2023 Summary

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Government of British Columbia

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Government of British Columbia

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Government

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2023

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#1PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA 2023 BMO Government, Reserve & Manager's Conference BRITISH Ministry of COLUMBIA Finance#2BC's Diversified Economy B.C.'s GDP by Major Industry Manufacturing & Utilities 8% Retail Trade Wholesale & 10% Transportation & Warehousing 5% Natural Resources 7% Construction 10% Public Admin., Health Care & Education 19% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 24% B.C.'s International Goods Exports Other Asia* 13% Japan 9% China 13% Other 8% US 57% Other Services 18% Source: 2021 shares of B.C. GDP at basic prices by major industry; Statistics Canada (may not add to 100 per cent due to rounding) *Other Asia includes Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, India and ASEAN member countries Source: 2022 shares of B.C. international goods exports; BC Stats (may not add to 100 per 2 cent due to rounding)#3B.C. Total Net Migration (persons) 170,000 150,000 130,000 110,000 90,000 70,000 50,000 30,000 10,000 Total Net Migration Net International Migration Net Interprovincial Migration -Total Net Migration -10,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Sources: Statistics Canada; Haver Analytics 3#4Summary of Current Economic Situation Indicator Labour Market Consumer Spending Housing Market Inflation & Interest Rates Exports Global Growth, Geopolitical Events & Pandemic Performance The unemployment rate is low (4.5% in March) but is leading to high job vacancies in some sectors. Consumer spending on services continues to recover while spending on goods has softened. Housing construction is strong (46,721 units in 2022) while sales activity has declined to low levels (-35.2% in 2022). Inflation has started to ease (4.7% in March) but affordability challenges remain, while interest rates are high. The value of goods exports has weakened (-15.0% since May) while service exports continue to recover. The economic outlook for most of B.C.'s major trading partners (e.g., rest of Canada, U.S., China, and Japan) has weakened since last summer.#5Budget 2023 Economic Outlook B.C. real GDP (annual per cent change) 4.0 2.0 2.8 3.0 0.0 2022 0.5 0.4 2023 1.5 1.6 2024 ■B.C. Ministry of Finance □ Economic Forecast Council 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2025 2026 2027 Sources: B.C. Ministry of Finance; Economic Forecast Council LO#6Economic Plan Stronger BC is British Columbia's roadmap to building a resilient economy Clean Growth: Meeting BC's Climate Commitments Leading on Environmental & Social Responsibility Fostering Innovation Across Our Economy Inclusive Growth: Supporting People & Families Building Resilient Communities Advancing Reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples 6#7Budget 2023 Fiscal Plan ($ millions) Revenue Expense Pandemic Recovery Contingencies Supplementary Estimates Forecast allowance Surplus (Deficit) Updated Forecast 2022/23 Budget Estimate 2023/24 Plan 2024/25 Plan 2025/26 82,700 77,690 79,724 (74,393) (80,206) (82,978) (2,000) (1,000) 82,223 (84,766) (2,715) (700) 3,592 (4,216) (500) (500) (3,754) (3,043) Capital spending: Taxpayer-supported capital spending 8,117 Self-supported capital spending .... 4,055 11,813 4,027 Total capital spending 12,172 15,840 12,634 13,098 4,116 2,853 16,750 15,951 Declining deficits of $4.2 billion in 2023/24 to $3.0 billion in 2025/26 $37.5 billion in taxpayer- supported capital spending over the three-year plan Provincial Debt: Taxpayer-supported debt 63,701 75,617 Self-supported debt. 29,788 31,607 Total debt (including forecast allowance) Taxpayer-supported debt to GDP ratio 16.4% Taxpayer-supported debt to revenue ratio 78.7% 93,489 107,924 18.9% 100.1% 88,436 99,395 33,671 34,405 122,607 134,300 21.3% 23.0% 114.8% 124.9% Debt metrics are lower than in Budget 2022 7#8Budget 2023 Summary Significant new funding for health and mental health, housing, reducing costs, safe communities and a sustainable and clean economy New investments to support hospitals, schools, housing and transit systems that people rely on Prudence built into fiscal plan: $15 billion in Contingencies over three years for various priorities including Shared Recovery Mandate ($7.5B), CleanBC ($950M), Climate & Emergency Response ($750M), Pandemic Recovery ($1B) and General programs ($4B) Forecast allowance of $700M in 2023/24 and $500M each year in 2024/25 and 2025/26 Forecast for real GDP growth is lower than the outlook provided by the Economic Forecast Council 8#9Building the Infrastructure That People Rely On $37.5 billion for taxpayer-supported capital over the three-year plan to deliver the infrastructure people rely on $10.1 billion (37%) increase from Budget 2022 taxpayer-supported capital plan Government is implementing the ESG Framework for capital investments to achieve child-care, workforce, Clean BC, and mass timber objectives Taxpayer-Supported Capital Spending ($ billions) 8.1 5.4 6.0 4.5 4.8 3.9 Budget 2023 13.1 12.6 11.8 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 9#10Sustainable Debt Levels Taxpayer-Supported Debt-to-GDP Per cent Interest Bite for Taxpayer-Supported Debt Cents per dollar of revenue Budget 2022 20.0 19.3 17.8 17.7 16.4 22.8 23.0 21.8 21.3 18.9 1 Budget 2023 7.4 j 6.1 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.2 3.5 2.9 2.4 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17 19/20 22/23 25/26 10#114.0 $ billions 3.0 2.0 1.0 (1.0) Historical Surplus (Deficit) 1.7 0.3 0.8 2.8 1.5 0.3 (0.3) 1.3 3.6 (2.0) (3.0) (3.0) (3.8) (4.2) (5.5) (5.3) (5.2) (6.2) (4.0) (5.0) (6.0) 13/14 14/15 Actual Actual 15/16 Actual 16/17 17/18 Actual Actual 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast 23/24 Budget 24/25 25/26 Plan Plan Actual/Forecast ■Contingencies and Forecast Allowance 11#12$85 billion Gross Debt Outstanding Debt Outstanding by Issuance Market, April 2023 0000 Europe Public/ USA Public 13% Private 5% Australia Public / Private 1% Canada Private 12% Canada CPP & Other 3% Canada Public 66% 12#13Debt Management 2023/2024 Borrowing Program: $19.1 billion (Budget 2023) With $20.5 billion and $19.4 billion in budget plan for outer years Prioritizing domestic benchmark liquidity Strategic approach to funding in international markets A Mix of money-market and bond funding 13#14B.C.'s Strong Credit Rating Agency Rating Outlook Moody's Investor Service Aaa Stable Fitch DBRS Morningstar Standard and Poor's AA+ Stable AA (high) Stable AA Negative 14#15CO₂ CO2 Environmental 40% Below 2007 GHG emissions by 2030 Ao 29% Waste emissions since 2007 $2.8 billion carbon tax revenue Budget Est. 2023/24 1000 tonnes marine debris 10,000 charging stations By 2030 Since 2020 $1.33 billion on climate related initiatives 2020/21 315,000 tonnes plastic pollution Annually since 2020 ✩ 30+ electric buses now deployed 2023 20,000 tonnes new capacity to recycle plastics 2021/22 15#16Social 30,500 licensed child care spaces since 2018 More than 33,000 affordable homes complete or under way 2018-2028/29 $705 million GDP generated by Indigenous tourism 2019-2020 3.0% average real GDP growth for agriculture, food, fisheries Annual Growth Rate 2000-2021 Ŕ 1 million+ new sport opportunities supported since 2004 INTERNET 6,100+ lives saved through Essential Health Sector Interventions since April 2016 67,553 households benefited from improved internet access Since 2017 25.6% Total poverty rate 58.0% Child poverty rate As of 2019 136,000+ clients served through Employment Services program over the past 2 years 16#17田 Governance O+ New government buildings are constructed to comply with LEED Gold BC Energy Step Code 4 Annual Reports issued by all B.C. ministries Budget Transparency and Accountability Act $25+ million spent on cybersecurity each year 53% of our public service executive is female 2021 10,700+ public servants have had training from the Gender Equity Office As of October 2021 i $30 million spent on Freedom of Information request each year B.C. was the first to enact legislation to implement the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples 2019 8 The B.C. Public services named as one of B.C.S Top Employers every year since 2008 BC's ESG Framework for Capital 17#18Agency Moody's Investor's Service* Fitch* B.C.'s ESG Scores Score Scale Credit Impact Score: CIS-2 (neutral-to-low) Credit-Relevant ESG Score: 3 (minimally relevant) 1-5 (Positive to very highly negative) 1-5 (Irrelevant to highly relevant to the credit rating) MSCI ESG Rating: AA CCC to AAA (Worst to best)#19APPENDIX BUDGET 2023 StrongerBC for everyone WWW.BCBUDGET.CA BRITISH COLUMBIA 19#20Update on Export Oriented Energy Projects Yukon Terrory Northwest Territories Fadiities LNG Canada Cordova Basin Liard Basin Hom River Basin Fort Nelson Tilbury LNG Ridley hland Propane Export Terminal Partner(s) Shell/PETRONAS/ PetroChina Mitsubishi/KOGAS Forth BC Altaas Pembina Propane Export Terminal Woodfire LNG Ksi Lims LNG Montney Basin Cedar LNG Port Edward LNG Pembina Pacific Oil and Gas Nisga'a/Western LNG Rockies LNG Hala Nation Pembina Port Edward LNG North Montney Mainline - Under Construction/Operational Proposed Partner(s) Pipe Fort St. John Alliance Pipeline BC Pipeline Pipelines Enbridge Enbridge FortBC Pipeline System FortisBC Westcoast Connector Trans TriSummit Utilities Pacific North Dawson Creek North Money Mainline Trans Canadia Tumbler Ridge Prince Rupert Pec Northern Gas Pipeline Coastal Gaslink Pipeline Westenast Corector Gas Transmission Prince Rupert Gas Transmission **** Eagle Mountain Woodfibre Ta Enbridge Tra Forth BC Prince Kitimat Coastal Casting Pippino George Existing Pipeline Natural gas production was approximately 9% higher in 2022 than in 2021. Upwards of 85% of natural gas production continues to be exported out of the province into Alberta and Washington State. Exports to commence mid-decade from LNG Canada. Other facilities could come online later in the decade. Propane exports to Japan and South Korea continue to grow. Alaska USA Pacific Ocean Shipping Times Tokyo - 8 days Seoul - 10 days Chennai-19 days Canada USA Quesnel Williams Lake BC Pipe Under Construction Pipeline ***Proposed Pipeline British Columbia has over 3,300 TRILLION CUBIC FEET of natural gas Alberta Cache Kamloops Creek Salmon Arm Elkford Merritt Campbell River Courtenay Port Alberni Powell River Whistler Fortis BC Pipeline System Kelowna Kimberley Fernie Nelson Sechelt Squamish Eagle Min Woodbre Looping Vancouver Cranbrook Castlegar Nanaimo Victoria "Proposed projects include projects that have either entered into an Environmental Assessment process or an actively ngaged in front and engineering and design (FEED) work. Washington, USA Montana, USA Idaho USA 20#212022 Shared Recovery Mandate Provides wage increases and inflation protection for B.C. public sector workers to help improve essential services - like health care and education Estimated to cost $10.8 billion over the three-year mandate term (2022/23 to 2024/25) with ongoing annual costs of $5.4 billion Budget 2023 provides $7.6 billion over three years in ministry base budget funding for signed agreements as of December 31, 2022; and $7.5 billion is set aside in contingencies for pending agreements and potential cost-of-living adjustments 21#22Pension Plan Positions Pension Plan Number of Members Most recent Valuation Actuarial Basis (millions) Accrued Basis (millions) Teachers' 102,000 Dec 31, 2020 - $1,584 105.3% $3,096 114% - College 33,000 Aug 31, 2021 Municipal 398,000 Dec 31, 2021 Public Service 138,000 Mar 31, 2020 + $892 RSA $202 103.2% - + $146 RSA $3,761 105.3% - + $3,185 RSA - $2,667 109.6% + $117M RSA $477-111% $9,742M - 120.9% $3,258 - 115% RSA = Rate Stabilization Account - funds set aside to mitigate future contribution rate increases 22#23CONTACT Websites: Debt Management Branch https://gov.bc.ca/provincialdebt Contact: Jason Lewis Director, Capital Markets [email protected] Tricia Oates Client & Investor Relations Manager DMB.Investor [email protected] BRITISH COLUMBIA 23

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