#1rrrrrr BERKELEY LAR Mexico Cooling Initiative Michael McNeil, Ph.D. Director, Mexico Energy Initiative Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory "2ndo. Taller de la Aceleradora de Eficiencia Energética en Edificaciones" Martes 26 de Febrero de 2019, 9:00 - 12:00 hrs. UNITED USAID GENCY USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Sede: Sala Audiovisual, Centro Ecológico, Hermosillo, Sonora TIONAL LOPME 1#2Why A Cooling Initiative Now? ◆ Cooling is most important enduse - AC use is growing rapidly around the world and is particularly impactful on growing, greening grids. Two recent insights: □ Residential AC even more important than we thought and that it happens at a critical time (1 AM). □ Commercial building electricity may be much higher than we thought and largely cooling driven Global efforts like Kigali Cooling Efficiency Program bringing attention and resources to AC Goal is integrated strategy toward deep cuts USAID TIONAL AGENCY LOPME USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 2 BERKELEY LAR#3JJJJJJJ BERKELEY LAR 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Geographical Variation 3 Cooling Electricity by State Annual Cooling Use (TWh) Annual Cooling Use per User (MWh) при SONORA NUEVO LEON SINALOA TAMAULIPAS VERACRUZ CHIHUAHUA COAHUILA BAJA CALIFORNIA JALISCO TABASCO QUINTANA ROO YUCATAN QUERETARO GUANAJUATO CHIAPAS NAYARIT CAMPECHE DISTRITO FEDERAL SAN LUIS POTOSI BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OAXACA PUEBLA MICHOACAN COLIMA MORELOS GUERRERO AGUASCALIENTES HIDALGO ESTADO DE MEXICO DURANGO TLAXCALA ZACATECAS Overall and per user cooling both highest in Sonora Top 5 states use half of the total cooling Maximum cooling is nearly 10 times the median AID RICAN PEOPLE 3#4rrrrr BERKELEY LAR 5 сп h 3 2 8 الله 7 6 Cooling Electricity Mexico Electricity Consumption 20 20 20 8% 0 Mexico Cooling Load 18 19 16 40% 18 36% 14 17 12 15% 16 10 h 8 6 125 14 14 4 13 1 2 12 0 0 11 ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC Small Commercial (<100kW) Residential 10 ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP ост NOV DIC Large Com & Med Ind (HM) Agriculture Street Lighitng & Water Pumping Heavy Ind (HS) -Baseload ■Residential Cooling ...Total (Right Axis) ■Small Commercial Cooling ■Large Ind Cooling Large Com & Med Ind Cooling Cooling Electricity about 5 TWh in August Residential Load is Sharpest Large Commercial and Medium Industry (Hourly > 1 kV) Broad and High. UNITED STATE USAID TIONAL AGENCY LOPME USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 4#5BERKELEY LAR GW Cooling Load Profile Load Profile Temperate Balance Zones 36 20 32 28 Lighting Peak 24 20 16 GW 18 16 14 12 10 Load Profile Warm Balance Zones "Residential" Cooling Peak Lighting Peak "Commercial" Cooling Peak 12 8 6h 8h 10h 12h 14h 16h 18h 20h 22h 24h 2h 4h 6h 8h 10h 12h 14h 16h 18h 20h 22h 24h 2h 4h Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter and Summer load curve very similar in temperate balance zones ◆ Lighting peak around 20-22h INITED STATES GENCY Strong effect from cooling in warm load zones. Two distinct peaks at 5 PM and 1 AM Peak Cooling Load is about 7.5 GW USAID TIONAL LOPME USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 5#67 160 5 M5 2 Correlation with Renewables Solar Wind Solar + Wind 10 20 9 8 18 00 16 7 6 14 12 GW л 4 3 2 GW 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 49 ug 10h 12h 14h 16h 18h 20h 22h Summer 40 Winter 2h 4h 1 0 6 h ug 10h 12h 14h 16h 18h 20h 22h Summer 40 Winter 2h 4h ◆ Residential cooling peak not covered by solar 0 6h 8h 10h 12h 14h 16h 18h 20h 22h Summer Wind variable but on average lest available at night in summer UNITED STA USAID AGENCY 40 Winter 2h 4h USAID Much of the generation expansion program won't cover much of the growth in cooling without storage TIONAL LOPME FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 6 BERKELEY LAR#7Growth in Air Conditioner Stock Fraction of Households Ownership of Air Conditioners Urbanization Climate 2014 2030 2050 2014 2030 2050 Hot 33% 41% 50% 35% 50% 80% Urban Temperate 46% 44% 41% 4% 6% 10% Hot 9% 7% 6% 10% 15% 25% Rural Temperate 12% 8% 5% 1% 1% 2% Total/Weighted Average 100% 100% 100% 14% 24% 45% . In 2014, 33% of Urban households in warm climates have AC, and 14% of all household had AC Urbanization could rise from about 80% to 90% by 2050 Trend from Temperate to Hot climates continues with % hot rising to 55% by 2050 Ownership raises in all categories, but especially in hot urban areas Net result of these factors is three-fold increase in AC ownership from 14 to 45% UNITED USAID TIONAL LOPME USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 7 BERKELEY LAR#8Fact Book Findings (Numbers) COOLING CONTRIBUTION TO ELECTRICITY DEMAND Cooling Electricity in 2015 Cooling % of All Electricity in 2015 Cooling Electricity per User - CDMX Cooling Electricity per User - Sonora National Cooling Peak Load Time of Peak Load GHG Emissions Costs Subsidies 22.6 TWh 8.9% 140 kWh 2650 kWh 7.5 GW 5 PM and 1 AM 10 mt CO₂ 31 billion (mil millones) $MX 42 billion (mil millones) $MX UNITED STATE USAID AGENCY LOPMEN USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 8 rrrrrr BERKELEY LAR#9Elements of a Cooling Strategy ◆ Equipment Efficiency Standards - Rapidly adopt the best available air conditioning technologies on the market through regulations like Mexico's NOM's. ◆ Voluntary Programs - Develop and disseminate ultra-low energy alternatives to current technologies through voluntary programs such as labeling, rebates, early replacement programs and public information campaigns. ◆ Technology R&D - Develop alternative cooling technologies such as evaporative cooling and solar-assisted cooling for the Mexican market and deploy them through industry partnerships. Building Envelope Best Practices - Lower cooling load with improved construction and retrofits through mandatory building codes and private sector initiatives. Cool Solar Reflective Coatings - Lower cooling load by reducing solar heat gain through cool roofs and other reflective coatings. Smart Design and Operation - Employ advanced construction, integrated design, user behavior and smart controls to reduce or eliminate cooling loads and respond to peak loads and electricity prices. BERKELEY LAR USAID TIONAL AGENCY LOPME USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 9#10Cooling Initiative Activities 1. In Progress - Improved national standards for fixed-speed mini-splits 2. Launching - Promotion of market shift toward variable speed mini-splits. 3. Launching - MEPS for Commercial AC 4. Launching - Residential AC Testing in Sonora 5. Launching - Cooling Community of Practice Online Platform UNITED STA USAID AGENCY LOPME USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 6. In Discussion - Building Codes in CDMX TIONAL rrrrr BERKELEY LAR 10 10#11Equipment Efficiency under K-CEP Berkeley Lab MEI leads Kigali Cooling Efficiency Program Mexico efforts to increase efficiency of cooling (AC+ refrigerators) while eliminating HFCs. Partners: Initiativa Climática de México (ICM) and INEEL Minisplit Air Conditioner Standards Optimize fixed-speed norm (NOM-023) level with new seasonal metric Preliminary consideration of merging fixed- and variable-speed norm Promotion of Inverter Minisplit Market Current market for inverter ministplits ~25% Consideration of non-regulatory programs (incentives, bulk procurement) Commercial Air Conditioning Standards Develop Mexico's first standard for AC > 5 tons (rooftop) BERKELEY LAR UNITED USAID TIONAL AGENCY LOPME USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 11#12Residential AC Testing in Sonora Project: Measure electricity use of ACs in households with good time resolution (~15 min) for entire cooling season (May-Oct) Goals: Understand whether residential AC explains late night peak Estimate of total residential summer use Understand coincidence with solar and other renewables Next Steps - Energy Savings and cost- benefit analysis of high-efficiency AC in ...Hot-Dry environment kWh GW 9 20 18 16 Load Profile Warm Balance Zones "Residential" Cooling Peak "Commercial" Cooling Peak 14 Lighting Peak 12 0.6 30 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 9 0 0 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 Tiempo - kWh-Temperatura grados centígrados BERKELEY LAR#13rrr Cooling Communities of Practice Mexico Cooling CoP Platform Functions Create a mechanism of interaction and collaboration fully supported by CONUEE MEXICO COOLING INITIATIVE A COMMETT OF REACTICE About Topics Discussion News 要 Build on the momentum created by the Summit to address the cooling challenge in Mexico Berkeley Lab Energy Technologies Area CONUEE Contact Us " • Leverage the network of industry representatives, government officials, researchers and international cooperation officials that participated in the Summit and recommended the establishment of a CoP for cooling. Allow for participation of an expanded set of stakeholders from different sectors Provide a forum to industry, academia and government to present their views on technical, regulatory and policy issues to a wide range of stakeholders Facilitate interaction and collaboration among members on specific topics and supports potential partnerships between industry and top academia/research institutions throughout the country. Serve as a gateway to engage institutions and communities in the U.S., Latin America and the world working on the cooling space Connect experts and actors to programs, resources and events in real time Convene in-person meetings, webinars and other events on specific topics Disseminate relevant information including reports, proceedings and news items Integrate social media element (blogs, tweets, newsletter) to provide timely information to the membership Links to CONUEE, MEI and other partners' websites to increase coverage and participation Mexico City faces a crisis with air-conditioner overuse. In collaboration with Mexico's Department of Energy, we hope to save $100 billion dollars of electricity costs and subsidies by 2050. Alternative Cooling Technologies Building Codes Cool Solar Reflective Coatings Equipment Standards and Regulations ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AREA Disclaimers Smart Building Design and Operation UNITED USAID NATIONAL GENCY LOPME GRUE Voluntary Equipment Efficiency Programs Mexico Cooling Initiative Retweeted Global Cooling Prize @Cooling Prize. 22 Feb USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE BERKELEY LAR 13#14Thank You [email protected] mexico.lbl.gov BERKELEY LAB ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AREA 14