#1Investor Presentation October 29, 2018 Ministerio de Hacienda Presidencia de la Nación#21. Financial program 2. Fiscal policy 3. Macroeconomic outlook#3Financial Program 2018 Oct-Dec USD bn Oct-Dec 2018 2018 Needs (excl. Letes) 14.9 Sources (ex. Letes) 22.9 Primary deficit 5.7 Initial cash balance 5.3 Plan Gas 0.0 Interests (private, IFIs, financial public sector) 4.6 IMF 13.4 Principal payments (private) 4.1 Private financing 1.9 International bonds 0.0 International market 0.0 Domestic bonds 0.4 Domestic market 0.0 Other 0.4 Repo 3.7 Repo 1.9 Principal payments IFIs 0.5 Financing IFIs (excl. IMF) 2.3 IDB + World Bank + CAF 0.4 IDB + World Bank + CAF 2.2 Other 0.1 Other 0.1 Paris Club 0.0 Paris Club 0.0 Letes (private Letes in USD Letes in ARS 8.2 Letes (private) 5.2 Letes in USD 3.0 Letes in ARS Note: the difference between Sources and Needs (excl. Letes) is used to pay non-refinanced Letes maturities and there is a remaining balance of USD 5.4 bn. Assumptions: FX rate ARS / USD 38 5.6 2.6 3.0 3#4* Financial Program 2019 USD bn 2019 2019 Needs (excl. Letes) 27.9 Sources (excl. Letes) 34.5 Primary deficit 0.0 Initial cash balance 5.4 Plan Gas 0.6 Interests (private, IFIs, financial public sector) 14.1 IMF 22.8 Principal payments (private) 9.5 Private financing 1.7 International bonds 2.8 International markets 0.0 Global '19 2.8 Domestic bonds Bonar '24 3.9 Domestic market 0.0 1.2 ARGDUO '19 1.5 ARGCER '19 0.8 ARGBON '19 Badlar+250 0.2 Other 0.2 Repo 2.9 Repo 1.7 IFIs Principal payments 3.6 Financiamiento IFIs (ex-FMI) 4.6 IDB + World Bank + CAF 1.7 IDB + World Bank + CAF 4.4 Other 0.2 Other 0.2 Paris Club 1.7 Paris Club 0.0 Letes (private)* Letes in USD Letes in ARS 14.5 Letes (private) 7.6 Letes in USD 6.9 Letes in ARS It includes existing maturities of Letes in 2019 and refinances made in 2018 (in the case of Letes in ARS, also interest) Assumptions: FX rate ARS / USD 40.1 8.7 4.6 4.1 4#5Financial Program 2019 by currency USD bn In ARS In USD Total En ARS En USD Total Needs (excl. Letes) 6.6 21.2 27.9 Sources (excl. Letes) 0.0 34.4 34.5 Primary deficit 0.0 0.0 0.0 Initial cash balance 0.0 5.4 5.4 Plan Gas 0.6 0.6 Interest (private, IFIs, financial public sector) 3.3 10.8 14.1 IMF 22.8 22.8 Principal payments (private) 2.7 6.9 9.5 Private financing 0.0 1.7 1.7 International bonds 0.0 2.8 2.8 International markets 0.0 0.0 0.0 Global '19 2.8 2.8 Domestic bonds Bonar '24 2.7 1.2 3.9 Domestic market 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 ARGDUO '19 1.5 1.5 ARGCER '19 0.8 0.8 ARGBON '19 Badlar+250 0.2 0.2 Other 0.2 0.2 Repo 2.9 2.9 Repo 1.7 1.7 IFIs principal payments 0.0 3.6 3.6 IFIs financing (excl. IMF) 0.0 4.6 4.6 IDB + World Bank + CAF 1.7 1.7 IDB + World Bank + CAF 4.4 4.4 Other 0.2 0.2 Other 0.2 0.2 Paris Club 1.7 1.7 Paris Club Letes (private) 6.9 7.6 14.5 Letes (private) 4.1 4.6 8.7 Letes in USD 7.6 7.6 Letes in USD 4.6 4.6 Letes in ARS 6.9 6.9 Letes in ARS 4.1 4.1 Assumptions: FX rate ARS/USD 40.1 5#6Evolution of the USD Letes Program Letes stock in USD held by private investors (USD_bn) $17.1 $15.4 $15.2 Domestic investors Foreign investors $15.1 $14.8 $13.8 $13.0 $11.8 $11.2 $10.7 $9.2 $8.6 $8.8 $9.3 $9.5 $9.4 $9.3 $9.4 $8.6 $8.6 $7.9 $6.8 $6.4 $5.8 $5.3 $4.4 $3.7 $2.4 $2.6 $2.1 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 The stock of Letes held by private investors fell by USD6.4 bn in 2018 YTD. The stock of Letes held by domestic investors remained stable. Foreign investors held almost half of the Letes stock in Jan-18, while they held 20% of the Letes stock by Oct-18. 6#7Converting USD debt to pesos Letes and Lecaps stock held by private investors (USD bn) $17.1 Letes USD $15.4 $15.2 $15.1 $14.8 Letes ARS $13.8 $13.0 $11.8 $11.2 $10.7 ARS81 ARS85 ARS59 ARS81 ARS81 ARS115 ARS37 ARS37 ARS202 ARS283 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 7#81. Financial program 2. Fiscal policy 3. Macroeconomic outlook#9Accelerated convergence to fiscal balance Primary fiscal deficit and targets (% of GDP) -2.2% -2.7% -3.2% -3.9% -4.2% 2017 2018 0.0% 2019 -1.2% 1.0% 2020 Cumulative reduction of the primary deficit of 4.9% of GDP between 2018 and 2020 6#10Fiscal Targets Quarterly accumulated primary deficit and targets (% of GDP) Target Observed 1.9% OUTPERFORMING FISCAL TARGETS 0.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 2.7% Fiscal target for 3Q19 was overachieved by 0.6 p.p. 4Q18 10 10#11Eliminating the fiscal deficit in 2019 Primary deficit (national public sector, % of GDP) 2.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 2018 Deficit Social benefits Subsidies Capex + transfers + Revenue measures 2019 Deficit other prim. expenditure 11#121993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 23 24 24 24 2001 2002 Primary expenditures reduction Consolidated public expenditure (% of GDP) 30 26 29 23 23 24 25 26 22 23 24 25 26 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 30 55 42 42 38 37 38 40 39 39 37 35 35 34 Primary expenditure of the provinces and local governments Primary expenditure of the central government Primary expenditures will have declined by 3.2% of GDP by the end of 2018 Public spending is being reduced by 6.2% in 2018 and 8.0% in 2019 in real terms 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 12 2018 (p) 2019 (p) 2020 (p) 2021 (p) 2022 (p) 2023 (p) 36 35 34 33#131. Financial program 2. Fiscal policy 3. Macroeconomic outlook#14Export-led growth for 2019 GDP composition (yoy) -0.5% -1.6% -3.4% 20.9% 2.8% -9.7% GDP Private consumption Public consumption Investment Exports Imports Growth dynamics in 2019 need to overcome the -3,7% statistical carryover 14#15Impact of the drought Soybean and corn production (in million tons) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 -27% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Forecast as of Sep18 Forecast as of Dec17 The toughest drought in more than 50 year reduced soybean and corn production by 27% in 2018 Source: Secretaría de Gobierno de Agroindustria and Ministry of Treasury projections 15#16Exports performance Exports (12 month, USD millions) 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 16 Apr-18 Aug-18#17Reducing the current account deficit Current account deficit (% of GDP) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Goods Services Other Current account -4.6% -2.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (p) (d) External financial needs dropped due to the reduction in the current account deficit Source: INDEC and Ministry of Treasury projections 17#18Improvements in productivity and competitiveness Regulatory changes improving business development conditions ✓ Simplified incorporation of new companies (1 day) ✓ Single Window for International Trade ("VUCE") ✓ Simplified Exports (up to 300 kg or USD600k a year) ✓ Digitalize / reduce requirements to export services and food ✓ Elimination or simplification of several registers Fully digitalized car transfers Digital background check Simplified procedures for small tax payers (3M individuals) Digital ID Digital state records (birth, marriage, death certificates) Customs insurance (three days) Annual freight transportation on Belgrano Cargas – Northern line ('000 tons) - 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 YTD 2018 volume is higher than full year volume in the last 20 years 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 18#19Protecting the most vulnerable... Primary expenditure in social assistance programs (% of the GDP) 5.7% 5.7% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 10.0% 10.1% 9.7% 9.0% 9.0% 8.1% 7.8% 7.9% 6.7% 6.8% 6.4% 5.6% 5.6% 4.5% 4.3% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 In 2018, the expenditure in pensions and universal child allowance and other family related allowance programs reached the historical maximum 2018 2019 19#20...and strengthening federalism Provincial expenditure (% of total public expenditure) 55% 50% 45% 40% 2018* 2019* The share of provincial expenditures (over total public expenditure) has been rising since 2016, strengthening federalism (and reverting to prior). 20#21Ministerio de Hacienda Presidencia de la Nación