#1ONREL Transforming ENERGY Photo from iStock-627281636 End-Use Savings Shapes Public Data Set Release: Commercial 2023 Release 2 Presenter: Chris Cara Donna Janghyun Kim, Lauren Klun, Amy LeBar, Andrew Parker, Marlena Praprost, Korbaga Woldekidan NREL Webinar October 5, 2023#2Logistics •We are recording the webinar. Because of the large number of participants, everyone is muted. • Please use the Q&A box to send us questions at any time during the presentation. The webinar slides and webinar recording will be available in ~1 week. The data set is available now. NREL 2#3Acknowledgments This work is the culmination of several years of research efforts. We would like to thank the following for helping make this possible: . ComStock TM and ResStock™ teams OpenStudioⓇ and EnergyPlus® teams Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Argonne National Laboratory Pacific Northwest National Laboratory U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Buildings Technologies Offices. NREL 3#4Agenda 1 End-Use Savings Shapes: Background 2 Our Approach to Stock Modeling with ComStock 3 End-Use Savings Shapes: 2023 Release 2 4 Accessing the Data Set 5 Next Steps 6 Q&A NREL | 4#5Project Background 6759% TAMPERING WITH OR SLAA SEARING OF SEAIS ATTAC E OF ANY METHGO THE PLOW OF UNOR De PRES VIOLATE AND MAY LEAD to SERVICE PROSECON#6Problem Statement A lack of credible and relevant information results in confusion and inaction by cities, states, utilities, and other major stakeholders. Will electrification of buildings... • Reduce carbon emissions in my city? Be feasible in my building stock? • Overload the grid? NREL | 6#7EULP and EUSS Road Map • ● The End-Use Load Profiles (EULP) project: Created a public data set for calibrated energy models of the U.S. commercial and residential building stock using ComStock and ResStock. The End-Use Savings Shapes (EUSS) follow-on project: - - - Adds the impact of several energy efficiency and electrification "what-if" scenarios ("measures") to the baseline stock models. Residential EUSS Release 1 was presented September 2022. Commercial EUSS 2023 Release 1 was presented March 2023. This presentation is for Commercial EUSS 2023 Release 2. NREL 7#8Commercial EUSS Approach End-Use Load Profiles (EULP) Describe how and when energy is used in buildings today. Public database of 350,000 individual building models and their energy end-use load profiles. End-Use Savings Shapes (EUSS) Describe how and when energy is used in "what-if" scenarios. Adds measure impact profiles for energy efficiency and electrification packages versus the ComStock baseline. EUSS 2023 Commercial Release 2 Data Set represents the building stock circa 2018 using 2018 actual meteorological year (AMY) weather. NREL 8#9Alignment and Impact We are putting information in the hands of decision makers. This effort supports DOE's goals to increase building energy efficiency, accelerate building electrification, and to do so in ways that prioritize equity, affordability, and resilience. What the Data Sets Provide • Building stock characterization How the Information Is Used • Electrification planning Emissions analysis . • How, where, and when buildings use energy Potential impacts of energy efficiency Information on time-sensitive value of energy resources • Potential impacts of building electrification. • Decarbonization decision-making • Utility-integrated resource plans and load forecasts • Policy and rate design. NREL 9#10Public Data Sets Are Intended To Serve a Broad Set of Use Cases and Audiences Consultant A ResStock Consultant B National Datasets ComStock Consultant C Nonprofit D Utility 1 Utility 2 Utility 3 Utility 4 Utility 5 Utility 6 Utility 7 Utility 8 Utility 9 Utility 10 Utility11 Utility 12 City 1 City 2 City 3 City 4 Software E Software F Startup G Consultant Utility 1 Utility 2 Utility 3 Utility 4 Utility 5 Utility 6 Utility 7 Utility 8 Utility 9 Utility 10 Utility 11 Utility 12 City 1 City 2 City 3 City 4 Manufacturers Research-Academia Startup City Company Company Company Company 1 2 3 4 Entity Entity Entity Entity Entity Entity Entity Entity Entity Entity Entity Entity 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2 3 4 NREL 10#11Our Approach to Stock Modeling 6759% TAMPERING WITH OR SLAA SEARING OF SEAIS ATTAC E OF ANY METHGO THE PLOW OF UNOR De PRES VIOLATE AND MAY LEAD to SERVICE PROSECON#12ComStock Workflow The Making of the Data Sets: . Describe the U.S. building stock quantitatively using best-available public data • Sample the description • Model the samples . Apply "what-if" scenarios to models-energy efficiency, electrification, etc. [EUSS only] Publish description, samples, models, results, aggregations, visualizations, and documentation. • ComStock Ah + 88 + Building stock characteristics database Variation in building type; size; location; vintage; heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) system; etc. Over 80 probability distributions of various attributes. . Physics-based computer modeling Representative set of 350K OpenStudio energy models. High- performance computing Simulate models Process and publish data Apply scaling factors. NREL 12#13What Does ComStock Model? All Buildings in the Commercial Buildings Building Type Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) 7,000 Other (not modeled in ComStock) 6,500 Retail strip mall Hospital 6,000 5,500 36% Large office Full service restaurant Medium office Warehouse Primary school Retail standalone Large hotel ■Small office Secondary school Outpatient Quick service restaurant ■Small hotel Annual Site Energy Consumption (TBtu) 5,000 4,500 8% 4,000 3,500 8% 3,000 6% 5% 2,500 5% 2,000 5% 1,500 5% 4% 1,000 4% * Includes other public order and safety, convenience store with gas station, other classroom education, vacant, fire station/police station, courthouse/ probation office, vehicle dealership/showroom, other lodging, preschool/daycare, repair shop, post 500 0 office/postal center, other food service, other food sales. Annual Site Energy Consumption (TBtu) Not in ComStock Building Type 2,600 2,400 9% Other 2,200 7% 7% 2,000 6% 1,800 6% 1,600 6% 1,400 6% 5% 1,200 5% 3% 1,000 800 600 400 200 ■College/university ■Religious worship Mixed-use office ■Grocery store/food market Nursing home/assisted living Recreation ■Laboratory Entertainment/culture Vehicle service/repair shop Other public assembly Library ■Vehicle storage/maintenance ■Dormitory/fraternity/sorority Other service Refrigerated warehouse ■Social/meeting Convenience store Enclosed mall ■Other* 0 NREL 13#14ComStock Baseline Updates Since Release 1 Release 1 Baseline Release 2 Baseline 4500- 4366 4000- 827.5 482.0 3500- 229.3 3000- 427.3 451.0 2500- 671.4 Continuous Improvements: - Updated HVAC system and fuel type distributions Established technology baseline for commercial cooking equipment Implemented baseline economizer fault prevalence Enhanced infiltration methodology Updated to OpenStudio 3.4.0 to 3.6.1. Future: Improve gas calibration (ComStock is low relative to other data sources) And more... Annual Site Energy Consumption (Tbtu) 5000 2000- 592.4 1500- 487.7 1000- 777.3 500- 4638 724.7 588.3 279.5 836.5 Heat Rejection, Electricity Heat Recovery, Electricity Pumps, Electricity Refrigeration, Electricity Exterior Lighting, Electricity Water Systems, Other Fuel Water Systems, District Heating Water Systems, Natural Gas Water Systems, Electricity Heating, Other Fuel Heating, District Heating Heating, Natural Gas Heating, Electricity Interior Lighting, Electricity Cooling, District Cooling Cooling, Electricity Fans, Electricity Interior Equipment, Natural Gas Interior Equipment, Electricity EUSS Release 1 EUSS Release 2 NREL 14#15ComStock Documentation ComStock documentation is now public. This document serves as a guide and resource to the methodology and assumptions behind ComStock. Links ComStock Documentation Introduction to ComStock slides NREL ComStock Reference Documentation Version 1 Andrew Parker, Henry Horsey, Matthew Dahlhausen, Marlena Praprost, Christopher CaraDonna, Amy LeBar and Lauren Klun National Renewable Energy Laboratory NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO:283/08 Technical Report NREL/TP-5500-83819 March 2023 NREL 15#16Greenhouse Gas Emissions Electricity • • Three grid electricity scenarios compared today; more included in published data set. This work does not imply a preference for any grid emission scenario. Electricity Grid Scenario Start Year Levelization Period (3% discount rate) Data Source LRMER High RE Cost* 2022 15 years LRMER Low RE Cost eGRID* 2022 15 years NREL Cambium [1] NREL Cambium [1] 2021 N/A EPA eGRID [2] On-Site Combustion Fuels Values from Table 7.1.2(1) of draft ANSI/RESNET/ICCC 301 [3] Natural Gas Propane Fuel Oil Greenhouse gas emissions in data set represent equivalent CO2 emissions. 147.3 lb/mmbtu (228.0 kg/MWh) 177.8 lb/mmbtu (182.3 kg/MWh) 195.9 lb/mmbtu (303.2 kg/MWh) * LRMER = Long Run Marginal Emissions Rate; RE = renewable energy; eGRID = Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database NREL | 16#17Please Note The ComStock model is continuously updated with new information, methods, and improved quality assurance/quality control procedures. Data sets are released in 6-month increments. • Measures are not intended to be comprehensive of a given technology. As additional data becomes available, measure results may be updated. The measure result summaries in this presentation are intended to be high-level observations to introduce the data set. For more detailed conclusions, please watch for updates on the publications section of our website or explore the data set. NREL 17#18End-Use Savings Shapes: Commercial 2023 Release 2 Technology modeling, results observations, and discussion#19EUSS Release 2: What is the new data set? Updated ComStock Baseline Improvements since Release 1 EUSS Release 1 Measures • Nine existing measures, re-simulated with updated ComStock baseline EUSS Release 2 Measures Eight new measures/packages Commercial EUSS Release 1 data set will remain available. NREL 19#20ComStock Measure Documentation Website ComStock The webinar presentation introduces the dataset 2023 Release 1 and provides high level national observations for each measure. The webinar recording and slides are available online: Comprehensive documentation is available for each measure. Describes the modeling methodology, assumptions, limitations, relevant ComStock baseline features, and observations from results. Getting Started Data 3 Resources Tutorials ^ 2023 Release 1 Webinar Recording Links to EUSS 2023 Release 1 Webinar and Slides 2023 Release 1 Webinar Slides Release 2 webinar recording and slides will be posted as soon as they are available. v CONTENTS How-to Guides v References ComStock Geographic Clusters Upgrade Measures Explanations Publications Citation and Data Attribution Contact Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler DOAS with Mini Split Heat Pumps Exterior Wall Insulation ⚫ Heat Pump RTU . LED Lighting Roof Insulation Secondary Window System Window Replacement Window Film Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Natural Gas Boiler Backup Demand Control Ventilation Exhaust Air Heat/Energy Recovery Heat Pump RTU with Original Fuel Backup VRF Heat Recovery with DOAS Package 1 - Wall and Roof Insulation, and New Windows Package 2 - LED Lighting, HP-RTU and ASHP-Boiler Package 3 - Wall and Roof Insulation, New Windows, LED Lighting, HP-RTU and ASHP-Boiler Access at: ComStock Documentation Site NREL 20#21Measure Summary: Existing From Release 1 Measure Name Heat Pump Rooftop Unit (HP-RTU) With Electric Resistance Backup Rooftop Ventilator + HP Split System Air to Water HP Boiler Retrofit With Electric Backup LED Lighting Exterior Wall Insulation Secondary Windows Window Replacement Window Film Roof Insulation Description Replace gas and electric RTUs with HP-RTU. Replace gas and electric RTUs with rooftop ventilator + HP split system in small commercial buildings (<20,000 sq ft). Replace gas boilers with heat pump boilers. Electric resistance boiler used for backup heat source. Upgrade all lighting to LED. Add exterior wall insulation panels. Add secondary windows. Replace windows. Add window film to windows. Add roof insulation. Included in Release 2 data set; not discussed in this presentation. NREL 21#22New EUSS 2023 Release 2 Measures Measure Name Description Heat Pump Rooftop Unit (HP-RTU) With Replace gas and electric RTUs with HP-RTU. Backup heat source Original Fuel Backup matches fuel type of the original system. Air to Water HP Boiler Retrofit With Gas Replace gas boilers with heat pump boilers. Gas boiler used for backup Backup % of Stock Floor Area 36% 33% heat source. Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) With Dedicated Outdoor Air System (DOAS) Replaces air handling units (AHUS) with a VRF DOAS. 53% Demand Control Ventilation (DCV) Adds DCV to AHUS that do not have them. 73% Energy Recovery Package 1: Envelope Package 2: Lighting + HVAC Adds heat or energy recovery to AHUS that do not have them. Combines wall insulation, roof insulation, and new windows measures. Combines LED lighting and HP-RTU or HP-boiler measures. 70% 100% 89% Package 3: Envelope + Lighting + HVAC Combines packages 1 and 2. 100% NREL 22#23. . Note on Heat Pump Modeling Limited comprehensive heat pump performance maps exist, which are required for detailed energy modeling. This limits our understanding of heat pump performance and operation in this work. Heat pump modeling is sensitive to performance assumptions due to the strong relationship between efficiency and capacity with outdoor air temperature. This impacts both annual energy consumption and peak demand. This work attempts to use the most informative data available and makes documented assumptions about heat pump operation and performance. These will notably impact results. Please consider these assumptions. The assumptions used for the measures represent one of multiple possible approaches. They are intended to be reasonable but not necessarily optimal. Assumptions can be modified as our understanding of the technologies improves. NREL 23#24Note on Energy Savings Stock Energy Savings Represents energy-weighted savings across the stock, not just applicable buildings. Does not represent the average savings that a building would experience for a measure. For individual building savings, use the raw data to perform your analysis on specific building samples. Site Energy Savings Represents energy savings for resources used on site. Does not necessarily translate proportionally to savings for source energy, operational cost, or avoided greenhouse gas emissions. These factors should also be considered where appropriate, especially for electrification measures that change the heating fuel type of buildings. NREL 24#25Heat Pump Rooftop Unit (HP-RTU) With Original Fuel Backup Heating#26Heat Pump Rooftop Units (HP-RTUS) With Original Fuel Backup Measure Concept Replace gas and electric RTUs with HP-RTUS Variable speed, high efficiency HP-RTU Performance • . • Sizing: Compressor sized to design cooling load; backup heat sized for remainder Backup Heat: Original heating fuel type Compressor Lockout: 0°F Defrost: Reverse cycle Performance Data Source: Mix of lab testing and manufacturer performance data Applicability Buildings w/ gas or electric resistance RTUs ~36% of stock floor area, varies regionally 28% gas RTU; 8% electric RTU Backup Heat Scheme Existing system Gas RTU Electric RTU New system HP-RTU with gas backup HP-RTU with electric backup NREL | 26#27Heat Pump Rooftop Units (HP-RTUS) With Original Fuel Backup For original fuel (OF) backup scenario: 27% stock heating gas savings (226 TBtu) ⚫ -22% stock heating electricity savings (-43 TBtu) • 11% stock cooling electricity savings (81 TBtu) • 19% stock fan electricity savings (112 TBtu) • Cooling and fan savings could also be attributed to high-performance non-HP-RTUS. • Savings are associated with premium units. Electric backup scenario shows higher electricity and lower natural gas consumption compared to original fuel scenario. Stock Site Energy by Fuel and End Use Annual Energy Consumption (TBtu) 2500- 2000- 827.5 6012 566.3 Heat Rejection, Electricity Heat Recovery, Electricity Electric Backup Scenario: Less gas heat, more electric ng heat ing, Other Fuel Heating, District Heating 1500- 197.6 240.5 268.3 Heating, Natural Gas 724.7 Heating, Electricity Interior Lighting, Electricity 644.0 644.0 Cooling, District Cooling 1000- Cooling, Electricity 588.3 500- 476.4 476.4 Fans, Electricity Interior Equipment, Natural Gas Interior Equipment, Electricity 0 Baseline HP RTU OF Backup HP RTU E Backup OF original fuel backup = E = electric backup NREL 27#28Heat Pump Rooftop Units (HP-RTUS) With Original Fuel Backup Annual GHG Emissions (MMT CO2e) Electricity Grid Scenarios: Choose 1 500 400- -14.3 (4.2%) 300- 200 100- с 336.6 322.3 -9.2 (3.6%) 253.3 244.1 -3.5 (2.2%) Baseline HP RTU G Backup Emissions avoided across all presented grid scenarios. ⚫ Electricity emissions avoided despite electrifying furnaces from cooling and fan end uses; also from replacing electric resistance RTUs with HP-RTUS. 161.1 157.6 -15.1 (18.1%) 83.6 68.5 2.0 0.9 4.2 4.8 Natural Gas Fuel Oil Propane Electricity: LRMER LOW RE Cost 15 Electricity: LRMER High RE Cost 15 Electricity: eGRID 2021 NREL 28#29Electricity Demand (MW) HP-RTU: Electric vs. Original Fuel Backup Load Profile for Winter Peak Sample Location: Boston, MA (Suffolk County) Scope: Total commercial stock Time step: 15 minutes HP-RTU, Electric Backup Fuel: Electricity HP-RTU, Original Fuel Backup 60- 50- 40- 8 ྴ གྷུ 8 。 20 10- Electricity Demand (MW) 60- 50- 40- 30- 20- 10- Gas backup reduces electric demand 0 0 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 2018 2018 Baseline Total pumps heat recovery refrigeration cooling heating interior_lighting fans heat rejection water systems exterior lighting interior_equipment Note that load profiles are heavily influenced by assumptions for heat pump sizing routine, lockout temperature, and performance curves. NREL 29#30Air to Water Heat Pump Boiler With Gas Backup Heating#31Heat Pump Boiler With Gas Backup Measure Concept Replace natural gas boilers for HVAC application with air source heat pump boilers • Natural gas boiler backup . 140°F supply temperature Applicability • Applicable to 33% of stock floor area Doesn't apply to natural gas boilers serving condenser water loops Heat Pump Boiler Performance . . Sizing: Meet loads down to 17°F Compressor Lockout: -5°F Stock Boiler Prevalence Models with Boilers • Defrost: Integrated into performance curves Performance Data Source: Manufacturer data Models without Boilers 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% % Stock Gas Heat % Stock Area Applicability False True NREL 31#32Heat Pump Boiler With Gas Backup For Gas Backup Scenario: • 61.9% stock heating gas savings (512 TBtu) . 83.2% stock heating electricity increase (164 TBtu) • Large reduction in stock natural gas heating and increase in electric heating from electrifying boilers • Gas backup shows slightly higher gas consumption and lower electricity consumption. Stock Site Energy by Fuel and End Use Annual Energy Consumption (TBtu) 1200 1000- 800- 42.5 827.5 45.5 315.5 45.5 305.7 600- 400- 362.0 369.7 Heat Rejection, Electricity Heat Recovery, Electricity Pumps, Electricity Refrigeration, Electricity Exterior Lighting, Electricity Water Systems, Other Fuel Water Systems, District Heating Water Systems, Natural Gas Water Systems, Electricity Heating, Other Fuel Heating, District Heating Heating, Natural Gas Heating, Electricity Interior Lighting Electricity Electric Backup Scenario: Less gas heat, more electric heat 200 197.6 0 Baseline HP Boiler G Backup HP Boiler E Backup G = gas backup E = electric backup NREL 32#33Annual GHG Emissions (MMT CO2e) Heat Pump Boiler With Gas Backup 500 Electricity Grid Scenarios: Choose 1 400 + 18.9 (5.6%) 355.5 336.6 300- 200- 100- +14.9 (5.8%) 268.2 253.3 + 11.5 (7.1%) Baseline HP Boiler OF Backup 172.6 161.1 -34.2 (41%) 83.6 49.4 4.8 4.8 2.0 Electricity: LRMER Low RE Cost 15 Natural Gas Fuel Oil Electricity: LRMER High RE Cost 15 Electricity: eGRID 2021 2.0 Propane • Increased electricity emissions from electrifying gas boilers • Decreased natural gas emissions from electrifying natural gas boilers Net emissions avoided for all comprehensive scenarios shown despite increased electricity emissions. NREL 33