#1Energy Policy of Japan: Post- Fukushima Developments Nandakumar Janardhanan Energy Policy Researcher Climate Change Division IGES IGES-TERI Policy Research Workshop on International Climate Change Regime Beyond 2012 29th 30th August, 2011 = New Delhi India#2Agenda Energy Mix in Japan, 2010. • Survey Results • Post Fukushima Developments in Energy Sector • IGES Study Energy Mix minus Nuclear: Options & Challenges Implications on Emission Targets • Possible Energy Scenario in Japan: Perceptions • Is Energy Independence Feasible? Evolving Energy Policy in Japan#3Energy Mix in Japan, 2010 Hydro electricity. 4% Renew- ables 1% Nuclear Energy 13% Nuclear constitutes 13% of total primary energy consumption and about 30% of total electricity supply 3 Coal 25% Natural Gas 17% Oil 40%#4Post-Fukushima Japan: Energy and Climate Survey Objective: To understand the perception of global intelligentsia on the Energy and Climate Policy in post- Fukushima Japan Survey Period: 17 days (15th July - 31st July 2011) Number of Response: 710 (Japan-432) Survey Sample: Nationality Japan 1.0% 0.3% 5.5% 1.3% |,0.8% 0.7% 9.6% 20.0% 60.8% Gender ■ Asia 1.0% ■North America 24.8% ■Central/South America ■ Europe (Include Russia) ■Middle East & Africa ■ Oceania ■South Pacific Islands ■N.A. 74.2% Male ■Female ■N.A.#5Post-Fukushima Japan: Energy and Climate Survey NP is needed to meet energy needs? Agree or disagree? World 30.6% 18.7% Agree Somewhat agree Disagree Somewhat disagree 22.0% 28.7%#634.4% Post-Fukushima Public Perception of Nuclear Energy in Japan 13.8% 3.2% 13.0% 35.6% All plants should be stopped within 1-2 years and then enter a process of shutting down. Electricity shortage will be dealt with by other sources and energy conservation. All plants should be gradually stopped by 2020 and then enter a process of shutting down.Electricity shortage will be dealt with by other sources and energy conservation. Each plants should be stopped when its operating license expires in 30-40 years (all plants should be stopped by 2050) and then enter a process of shutting down. Electricity shortage will be dealt with by other sources and energy conservation. ■Supply from nuclear power should be maintained around 30% of the total electricity in Japan ■Supply from nuclear power should be increased#7Survey on Emission Targets ◆ Japan should keep 25% reduction target? Yes or No? 25% reduction target 32.0% Yes No I don't know 68.0% I can't answer#88 Post Fukushima Developments in Energy Sector The dependency on fossil fuel, especially natural gas increased. • Due to the disaster, Japan will have an additional demand of 110,000-140,000 bbl oil/d and 6.2-8.6 MT gas by end of 2011 (IEEJ) • Government is increasingly focusing on developing alternative sources. • There is concern about availability of fossil fuels and price. R/P: Oil 46 years, Gas 58 years, Coal 118 years. In Japan's energy mix (commercially traded primary sources) these fuel types constitute 40, 16 and 24 % respectively.#99 Post Fukushima Development: IGES Study Policy Scenarios 2. Fossil fuel scenario -Long Run: Descriptions Cutting down nuclear power supply gradually from the supply mix by 2050 3. Fossil fuel scenario -Short Run: 4. Renewable Energy Scenario (REN) Very aggressive cut off of all nuclear power supply by 2015. Deliberate introduction of 15% wind and 25% solar energy supply of total electricity supply by 2050. Geothermal restricted to only 10% until 2050.#1010 Energy Mix minus Nuclear: Options & Challenges Energy Mix minus Nuclear (Options) Energy Security Perspectives Economic Perspectives Climate Mitigation Higher share of fossil fuel •Vulnerable to supply challenges •price fluctuation Extensive Demand Side Management and Clean Technology •Slower implementation •supply concerns integration Higher share of •Higher energy bill •Challenge to climate mitigation targets •Investment ⚫unit cost of power ⚫technological constraints ⚫challenges to industry Renewable Sources •Slower implementation •supply concerns constraints •Efficient mechanisms ⚫cost for industry •Investment, technological •Low emissions •need for incentives ⚫tax benefits ⚫challenges to industry#1111 Implications on Emission Targets Supply challenges in the post disaster expected to affect emission targets • Power generation sector account for about 30% of the total carbon emission in Japan (2009). Hence, any changes in the fuel mix could have visible impact on the emission targets Achieving emission reduction targets (25% by 2020) is in question. • Former Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa's statement: The 25 percent emission reduction goal will be removed and there is a possibility of revised emissions targets#1212 Possible Energy Scenario in Japan: Perceptions 1,200 Power Generation[TWh/a] 1,000 800 600 400 200 2010 2020 2050 Source: Institute of Sustainable Energy Policy, Japan □ Efficiency Nuclear LNG Oil ■ Coal ■Hydro(Large) Hydro(Small) Geothermal Biomass PV Wind#1313 Is Energy Independence Feasible? • While a complete energy independence could be too ambitious for Japan, a significant shift in the fuel mix is important taking into account the domestic and international energy scenario and climate targets • Over dependence on fossil fuels and the lack of political confidence are the major hurdles Myth of financial feasibility for transition to domestically available sources vs. defence expenditures (2009) Bn Dollars 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1540 162 Global investment in Sustainable Energy Global Military Expenditure Source: SIPRI report & UNEP-Bloomberg report#1414 Post Fukushima Energy Policy in Japan • 3-11 disasters culminated in strong anti-nuclear public sentiments • Greater emphasis has been given to enhancing domestic supply capability Energy Security: Reduce overseas dependency and energy bill • Introduction of Feed-In-Tariff to promote renewable energy development Importance given to expanding solar and geothermal sources • Policies to target energy efficiency and energy conservation#15Thank You Please send your comments to Nandakumar Janardhanan: [email protected]