#1MARMI ENERGY. TRANSFORMED. Delaware EEAC Sherri Billimoria & Jake Glassman October 13, 2021#2MARMI ENERGY. TRANSFORMED. RMI is catalyzing rapid, market- based change in the world's most critical geographies to be aligned to a 1.5°C future. We identify the interventions and work to scale transformative change in the global energy system to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 50% by 2030. RMI - Energy. Transformed.#3OPERATING Building sector emissions fall under a few main categories: RMI - Energy. Transformed. DIRECT INDIRECT 費 EMBODIED#4OPERATING Direct emissions are a critical component of building emissions RMI - Energy. Transformed. DIRECT INDIRECT 費 EMBODIED#5Direct emissions are from space heating, water heating, and cooking RMI - Energy. Transformed. CO NO₂ VOCs PM2.5 VOCs CO₂ CO NO₂ PM2.5 PM2.5 CO2 Breakdown of fuel emissions in buildings (US) VOCS CO₂ VOCs NO2 Space Heating PM2.5 CO CO NO2 Water Heating 19% CO₂ Cooking/Other 13% Residential ■Commercial 68%#6Building sector GHG emissions in DE are too large to ignore. 100% Building Use (Direct) 90% Building Use (Indirect) 80% Building construction and operations 70% Building Construction 60% 50% Other Industry 40% 30% 20% Transport 10% Other Source: EIA 2020, Delaware 2017 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory RMI - Energy. Transformed. 0% In DE: ~31% of the state's net GHG emissions are from building use (excluding construction). 6#7Building sector GHG emissions in DE are too large to ignore. DE GHG Emissions by Sector (2017) -2 -1 0 1 MMTCO2e 2 3 4 5 6 Residential Direct Commercial Direct Industrial Electricity Transportation Agriculture Waste Management Forestry and Land Use Source: Delaware 2017 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory RMI-Energy. Transformed. These are components of building operating emissions. Much of what industry produces is used in buildings. Most electricity is consumed in buildings. Buildings influence and overlap with other sectors through waste, zoning and land use, etc. 7#8DE's building emissions are split (almost) evenly four ways. DE Net GHG Emissions (2017) Net other emissions 69% DE Building Sector Operating Emissions (2017) Buildings operating emissions 31% Residential indirect 28% Commercial indirect 25% Source: EIA 2020, Delaware 2017 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory RMI - Energy. Transformed. Residential direct Commercial direct 26% 21% 8#9The United States has reduced carbon emissions from electricity, while the buildings sector is flat 2,500 2,000 1,500 Annual CO2 emissions from electric power and buildings sectors Million metric tons CO2, US total, 2007–2020 Electric Power: Down 40% since 2007 1,000 500 Buildings: 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Down 3% since 2007 RMI - Energy. Transformed. Electric Power Buildings#10Electricity has been growing as a primary heating fuel for decades Percentage of US households by primary heating fuel 1940-2017 60% Coal 50% 40% Fuel Oil 30% Wood 20% 10% Gas 0% 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 RMI - Energy. Transformed. Electricity 2010 2017 Source: Census Bureau, 2018 10#11This growth is consistent across regions and building types Residential % of US housing units which are all-electric 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2005 Commercial % of US commercial buildings which are all-electric 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2009 2015 1999 2003 2012 Total South West Midwest Northeast Source: EIA RECS and CBECS RMI - Energy. Transformed. 11#12A heat pump uses small amount of electricity to move heat rather than generate heat MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC ☐ Is different and more efficient than resistance heating Provides heating AND cooling Heat pumps deliver two to four times more heating energy than the electricity it consumes Even burning gas in a power plant to run a heat pump is more efficient than a gas furnace or boiler RMI - Energy. Transformed.#13Heat Pump Technology Refrigerant in outside coil releases heat to the air RMI - Energy. Transformed. SUMMER compressor Heat from the air is absorbed by refrigerant in indoor coil Heat from the air is absorbed by refrigerant in outdoor coil WINTER compressor Refrigerant in indoor coil releases heat into house#14Heat pumps work in cold climates. Diminished peaks. Winter peaks on electric grid can be mitigated with weatherization and demand response programs. High efficiency. Ground and water source heat pumps function well without much reduction in efficiency in extreme temperatures. Backup often unnecessary. Today's air-source heat pumps work without back-up down to -15°F with cutting edge products heating at -30°F. Where necessary, backup options vary. Electric resistance or existing fossil fuel infrastructure can be used for backup heating – some heat pump programs leave existing fossil fuel infrastructure as back up source of heating, but electric resistance heating is also effective. RMI - Energy. Transformed.#15Temperature (°F) 20 10 WO 30 40 70 60 50 Resilience and Electrification 64°F Minimum for Vulnerable Populations 50°F-60°F Mild 40°F-50°F Moderate <40°F Severe 0 -10 -20 -30 -24 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 Dec 24 Dec 30 Hour Outdoor Passive NZER - 2009 1980 1950 Source: Hours of Safety in Cold Weather - RMI RMI-Energy. Transformed.#16Electrification may have big potential in DE's non-gas homes. Home Heating Fuel Consumption in DE (2019) Likely most potential for scaling the adoption of cost- saving and emissions- reducing technology 11% Source: United States Census 2020 RMI - Energy. Transformed. 2% 10% 34% ■ Utility gas ■ Electricity 43% ■Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. ■Bottled, tank, or LP gas Other or none 16#17Electrification can reduce emissions in DE's natural gas-heated homes. Emissions Impact by State: Heat Pump vs. Gas Furnace New heat pump reduces carbon emissions vs. gas furnace Pending policy may change outcome New heat pump doesn't reduce emissions vs. gas, current prices Source: RMI 2020 RMI-Energy. Transformed. . Heat pumps are carbon-reducing in 99% of U.S. households. . Heat pumps are multiple times more energy efficient than an Energy Star gas furnace. The costs of electric homes and technologies are falling steeply. 17#18Home energy prices may support building electrification in DE. DE Electricity Sales by Volume Industrial 20% Commercial 38% Source: EIA 2020, EIA 2021 RMI - Energy. Transformed. Residential 42% Electricity prices are similar to the national average. 13 c/kWh avg residential electricity price 10 c/kWh avg commercial electricity price 18#19Home energy prices may support building electrification in DE. Gas Consumption in DE (2020) Residential 11% Gas prices are slightly above the national average. Electric Power 45% Commercial 11% Industrial 33% $1.25 /therm avg residential gas price $1.04 /therm avg commercial gas price Source: EIA 2020, EIA 2021 RMI - Energy. Transformed. 19#20Rewiring America found that electrification would reduce energy bills in 99% of DE households. If they upgrade, 99% of households # of Furnaces Avg. savings if electrified # of Water Heaters Avg. savings if electrified in Delaware would Electric 63.9K $295/yr 0.27M $269/yr save more than $150 Resistance million a year on energy bills and Fuel Oil 41.6K $434 / yr 1.2K $228 / yr reduce emissions by Propane 36.8K $526/yr 7.1K $437/yr 600,000 metric tons of CO2e annually. 100% of households using natural gas would also save on annual energy bills. The savings will continue to increase given the trajectory of heat pump technology improvements. On average, each household could save $425 on their energy bills each year. Source: Rewiring America RMI - Energy. Transformed.#21Electrification incentives help and are widespread in the Northeast. Program Ductless heat pumps (often cold climate) NYSERDA 2019 NY utilities 2020 Energize CT Mass Save Vermont Tier III Efficiency Vermont Burlington Electric Dept. National Grid Rhode Island Incentive Program Incentive Ground-source heat pumps $500/outdoor unit NYSERDA 2019 $1,500/ton $500-800/outdoor unit NY utilities 2020 $1,500-2,850/ton $6,000-20,000/home $500/unit $1,250/ton $500-800/system $350-450/system $1,200-1,650/system $1,000/ton Massachusetts MVP Heat pump water heaters Energize CT $750 $600 Residential new construction Efficiency Vermont Energize CT Ducted heat pumps (sometimes cold climate) Weatherization $1,000/apt., $2,500/home NYSERDA 2019 NY utilities 2020 Energize CT Mass Save MassCEC Massachusetts MVP Vermont Tier III Efficiency Vermont Vermont ZEN F National Grid Rhode Island $1,000/ton $1,000-2,000/ton $500/system $1,250/ton $2,500 (convert from NG) $2,000-12,000/system $500-800/system $800/ton $15,000/home $1,000/ton Massachusetts MVP Vermont ZEN DC Sustainable Energy Utility $1,000-9,000 $10,000 $5,000-6,500 Programs differ by implementor, target audience, target technology, existing technology, and funding. Source: Programs to Electrify Space Heating in Homes and Buildings - ACEEE#22DE's diverse building stock necessitates targeted decarbonization policy. Mortgage Status 70,000 100,000 260,000 17% Units in Structure 8% 75% ■Owner-occupied Renter-occupied Unoccupied Source: United States Census 2019 RMI - Energy. Transformed. ■Single-family (detached/attached) ■Multifamily (2 or more units) Mobile home, other 22#23DE's diverse building stock necessitates targeted decarbonization policy. Residential Building Age Distribution 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 to 2009 to 1999 Built 2010 Built 2000 Built 1990 Built 1980 Built 1970 Built 1960 or later to 1989 to 1979 to 1969 Built 1950 Built 1940 to 1959 to 1949 Built 1939 or earlier Source: United States Census 2019 RMI - Energy. Transformed. 23#24Addressing equity will be key to achieving DE's climate goals. 11% of Delaware's residents live below the poverty level. Source: United States Census 2019 RMI - Energy. Transformed. 8% of income for low-income families is spent on energy. 10% of Delaware's residents live with asthma. 24#25Building decarbonization directly drives diverse benefits. M Economy Health and Environment Safety and Resilience Aesthetics & Quality of Life Equity Energy cost savings, avoided operations and maintenance costs, increased revenues through taxes or fees, job creation, real estate property value increases, business attraction, employee productivity gains, and other economic benefits, etc. Improved air quality, greater opportunities for physical activity, and other health and environmental benefits, etc. Improved disaster preparedness, removal of combustion hazards, emergency backup power sources, and other public safety and community resilience benefits, etc. Area beautification and greenscapes, improved comfort, and other benefits that strengthen the region's pride and bolster resident happiness, etc. Broader access to regional services (especially for low-income residents), expanded options that empower residents with choices, and other benefits that serve the general public en masse, etc. Source: RMI 2017 RMI - Energy. Transformed. 25#26Thank you!