Energy Transition and Uranium Market Dynamics

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15 of 17

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Energy

Published

4 December 2023

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#192 Ս YELLOW CAKE PLC PURE EXPOSURE TO THE URANIUM COMMODITY 121 MINING INVESTMENT CAPE TOWN FEBRUARY 2024#2Disclaimer 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC This presentation (the "Presentation") is provided on a strictly private and confidential basis for information purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to purchase, underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in Yellow Cake plc (the "Company"). By viewing this Presentation, you will be deemed to have agreed to the obligations and restrictions set out below. The information contained in this Presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such information may lawfully be communicated. 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By participating in this Presentation or by accepting any copy of this Presentation, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. 1#3Yellow Cake Buy and hold strategy We purchase uranium and hold for the long-term Pure exposure to the uranium commodity price No exploration, development or operating risk 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC Ability to purchase in volume, at the spot price Ability to purchase US$100m of U3Og from Kazatomprom per year Inventory stored In safe jurisdictions Uranium stored in Canada (Cameco) and France (Orano) Low-cost structure Outsourced operating model Targeting annual operating costs of <1% of NAV 2#4U3O8 spot price is now higher than at the time of the Fukushima accident (1,2) 80 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC 70 60 U308 Spot Price (US$ /lb.) 30 40 50 50 Fukushima accident 11 March 2011 (Spot US$68.08) 20 Driven by Fukushima, overall demand falls on safety concerns 2011-2016 10 10 Yellow Cake IPO 5 July 2018 (Spot US$22.94) SPUT completes UPC acquisition 19 July 2021 (Spot US$32.41) Current spot price 4 December 2023 (Spot US$81.45) Supply cuts by major producers stabilise pricing 2016 Covid driven curtailments add to supply pressure March 2020 (Spot US$24.75) Russia invades Ukraine 24 February 2022 (Spot US$45.00) Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Uranium Spot Price Yellow Cake Equity Raises Source: 1) UXC, LLC, "Historical Daily Broker Average Price", 4 December 2023 2) McKinsey, "Uranium Commodity Perspective", December 2022 3#5Key themes impacting the uranium market 92 U כ 1. Climate change and energy transition YELLOW CAKE PLC 2. Reactor build programs, life extensions, small modular reactors 3. Energy security and energy independence 4. Long-term contracting by utilities is increasing 5. The supply side is being challenged to meet demand growth#61: Climate change and energy transition increasing the focus on nuclear energy 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC Nuclear power generates the least CO2 equivalent emissions compared to all other power sources CO2 equivalent emissions per GWh over the lifecycle of a power plant (tonnes) (1) Nuclear 820 720 490 78-230 34 4 5 Wind Solar Hydropower Biomass Natural Gas Oil Coal Note: Range of emissions from biomass depend on material being combusted Not only does nuclear generate >99% less CO2 equivalent emissions than non-renewable power sources (natural gas, oil, and coal), but it also generates the least amount of emissions when considering other renewable power sources traditionally considered environmentally friendly (wind and solar) Source: 1. Our World in Data, "Safest Sources of Energy", 2020 5#792 1: Global demand for nuclear increasing towards U 2050 Market conditions and policies are shifting views on natural gas and limiting its role, while underlining the potential for nuclear power to cut emissions and strengthen electricity security (1) Global nuclear energy demand scenarios (GW) (¹) כ YELLOW CAKE PLC 1,000 800 600 400 200 Source: Stated Policies Scenario (GW) Announced Pledges Scenario (GW) Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (GW) 2010 2021 2022 2030 2040 2050 1) World Energy Outlook, October 2023 6#892 2: Reactor build programs and life extensions driving U uranium demand YELLOW CAKE PLC Global nuclear reactor fleet will continue to grow, especially in China, India, and the Middle East China 26 reactors under construction, 42 planned India 8 reactors under construction, 12 planned Russia 3 reactors under construction, 25 planned UAE 3 operating reactors, 1 reactor under construction Investment in nuclear power Operable reactors (1) Reactors under Planned construction (1) reactors (1) Proposed reactors (1) World Nuclear Reactor Fleet 436 62 111 318 Chinese Reactor Fleet 55 26 42 154 Source: 1) World Nuclear Association, World Nuclear Power Reactors & Uranium Requirements (December 2023) 7#92 4 6 USA 8 00 10 12 14 16 Russia 18 92 2: Small modular reactors are becoming a reality U SMR market value could reach US$1 trillion by 2050 76 SMR designs are being developed globally across 18 countries (1) כ YELLOW CAKE PLC China Early Stage Middle Stage Final Stage Finished Stage Japan Canada South Africa South Korea United Kingdom Denmark France Indonesia Czech Republic Italy Source: 1) Barclays Research, European Utilities - "New Horizons: New Nuclear: A $1trn SMR Market and Fusion Revolution", 8 March 2023 Netherlands Sweden Switzerland Argentina Saudi Arabia 00 8#103: Energy independence and security of energy supply now becoming increasingly important Russia is a key player in both conversion and enrichment 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC Mining Global conversion capacity (2) Capacity (Mt U) Source: 15 16.0 15 14.0 12.5 12.5 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Front-end nuclear cycle overview (1) Conversion 7 China France Russia Canada United States 1) World Nuclear Association, Nuclear Fuel Cycle Overview, April 2021 2) World Nuclear Association, Conversion and Deconversion, January 2022 3) World Nuclear Association, Uranium Enrichment, September 2020 Capacity (SWU) I Enrichment Fuel Fabrication Global enrichment capacity (3) 30.0 27.7 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 18.3 7.5 6.8 0.1 Russia United Kingdom France China Other 9#113: Global utilities are exposed to escalating geopolitical risk of natural uranium supply 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC The United States, the largest consuming country, is currently at its lowest annual uranium production level in more than 70 years. Domestic suppliers are generally idled and commercial inventory is decreasing Total reactor related requirements and origin of uranium 2H 2022 (UO)(¹) Others (open market, inventories, secondary supplies) Overseas Domestic Reactor requirements (U308) 15% 100% 50% 56% 58% 50% 100% 22% 29% 43% 42% 78% 57% United States China France Russia South Korea Ukraine India Source: 1) MineSpans (December 2022) 10 10#124: Long-term contracts need to be replaced Increased term contracting activity is a factor driving the spot price rise 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC Future contracted coverage rates of US and European utilities (1,2) 140% 120% 108% 125% 113% 100% 95% 90% 80% 88% 75% 76% 70% 62% 62% 75% 70% 60% 40% 20% 45% 37% 29% 10% 8% --% 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 US Utilities Coverage EU Utilities Coverage Source: 1) US Energy Information Administration: Maximum anticipated uranium market requirements of owners and operators of U.S. civilian nuclear power reactors, 2023-2032, at end of 2022 (June 2023) 2) Euratom Supply Agency Annual Report 2021 (2022) 11#1392 4: Long term contracting has increased significantly, "8 but is not yet at replacement levels Term contracting identified for 2023 has already exceeded the total for 2022 U YELLOW CAKE PLC Mlbs. U308 160 140 120 95.8 100 89.9 80 60 60 60 40 20 1 Term market buying trend - 2023 (1) 53.0 71.8 125.0 152.3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YTD Sources: 1) UxC Weekly Publications, January 2019 - December 2023 12#145: Global uranium supply side is concentrated 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC U3O production is concentrated, with the top 5 companies producing 59% of the total supply in 2021 (1) Global production by company (Mlbs. U3O8, 2022) Production by country (1) (%, 2022) Kazatomprom Orano Cameco Uranium One CGNPC 30.5 14.6 13.7 11.0 10.7 Top 5 Total 80.5 Other World Source: 1) MineSpans Q4 2022 45.0% 42.4% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 14.7% 15.0% 11.2% 9.0% 7.1% 10.0% 49.7 5.0% 130.2 15.7% --% 50 100 150 Kazakhstan Canada Namibia Australia Uzbekistan Other 13#15Uranium Price (US$/lb.) 5: The supply side is being challenged to meet growing demand (1) 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC 250 200 150 100 50 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Secondary Supply Source: 1) MineSpans (May 2022) Operation Closed Operation Operation On Hold Probable Project Demand 14#16Yellow cake is well positioned to benefit from current market trends 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC Nuclear energy provides low emission power generation that is critical to decarbonisation Globally, demand for uranium is increasing due to aggressive nuclear plant build programs, reactor life extensions, and small modular reactor developments Western countries have been dependent on Russian uranium, conversion, and enrichment historically but are now shifting away towards ex-Russian supply Term contracting activity has increased significantly in 2022 and is likely to remain at an elevated level ■ There is a growing uranium supply deficit as producing mines enter their "end of life", secondary supply declines, and excess inventory has been drawn down Having secured over 21.6Mlbs. in U3Og inventory and benefitting from an ongoing framework agreement with Kazatomprom that provides access to US$100m in further material per year, Yellow Cake is well positioned to benefit from market tailwinds 15

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