H1 Results - Nov 2016

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Ryanair

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2016

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#111 00000 RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. H1 Results - Nov 2016#2Europe's Favourite Airline ✈ Europe's Lowest Fare/Lowest Cost Carrier ✈ No. 1, Traffic -119m (+12%) No. 1, Cover - 85 Bases ✈ No. 1, Service - Low Fares/On-time/Fewest Canx - "Always Getting Better" Program ✈ Fwd Bookings & Traffic Rising (117m → 119m) ✈ 305 a/c order = grow to 200m p.a. by FY24 RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. 2#3Europe's Lowest Avg. Fare Ryanair Wizz* Norwegian easyJet Air Berlin Lufthansa IAG Air France/KLM Avg Competitor Fare €46 €57 €80 €91 €123 €226 €230 €249 €151 (Source: Latest Annual Reports, *includes 1 checked bag) RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. Fares Change -2% -5% -1% +8% +2% -2% -2% % > Ryanair +24% +74% +98% +167% +391% +400% +441% +228% 3#4Europe's Lowest Costs (€ per pax ex-fuel) Staff Airport & Hand. Route Charges Own'ship & maint. S & M other Total (PY) %> Ryanair (Source: Latest Annual Reports) RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. RYA 5 8 6 6 3 WIZ 5 12 6 14 3 28 (29) 40 (39) +43% EZJ 10 22 6 9 8 NOR +96% 15 19 8 25 6 55 (51) 73 (62) +161% AB1 19 28 9 31 29 116 (107) +314% LUV 48 9 0 18 17 92 (74) +230% 4#5Europe's No. 1 Coverage ✈ 85 bases ✈ 200+ airports (105 Prim) ✈33 countries ✈1,800+ routes ✈119m c'mers ✈ 363 x B737 fleet ✈305 x B737s on order RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. KNOCK SHANNON KERRY CORK TERCEIRA PONTA DELGADA LANZAROTE TENERIFE (S) TENERIFE (N) OGRAN CANARIA DERRY FUERTEVENTURA BELFAST DUBLIN NEWQUAY GLASGOW (1) O LISBON FARO PORTO O LIVERPOOL MANCHESTER AGADIR CARDIFF BIRMINGHAM BRISTOL SANTIAGO O VIGO SANTANDER VITORIA GLASGOW (P) BOURNEMOUTH SEVILLE JEREZ MALAGA VALLADOLIDO MADRID O ABERDEEN EDINBURGH RABAT FEZ MARRAKESH NEWCASTLE BREST DEAUVILLE LORIENT DINARD TOURS OLEEDS EAST MIDLANDS OLONDON (L) LONDON (S) LONDON (G) NANTES LA ROCHELLE O TANGIER CASTELLON LIMOGES ALMERIA CLERMONT BRIVE BASEL BERGERAC ST. ETIENNE MILAN (M) BORDEAUX O RODEZ GRENOBLE BIARRITZ TOULOUSE NIMES TURIN LOURDES MONTPELLIER CARCASSONNE O OMARSEILLE OBEZIERS BARCELONA (G) OBARCELONA (E) PERPIGNAN ZARAGOZA 00 O NADOR OPOITIERS REUS VALENCIA ALICANTE MURCIA OUJDA HAUGESUND AMSTERDAM EINDHOVEN OMAASTRICHT LILLE BRUSSELS (Z) PARIS BRUSSELS (C VATRY LUXEMBOURG STRASBOURG IBIZA PALMA DOLE MENORCA OSLO (G) TORP FIGARI GOTHENBURG O AARHUS BILLUNDO HAMBURG SZCZECIN BREMEN DUSSELDORF O ODORTMUND BERLIN POZNAN LODZ WROCLAW STOCKHOLM PERUGIA CCOLOGNE FRANKFURT PRAGUE FRANKFURT (H) OSTRAVA NUREMBERG STUTTGART BADEN MEMMINGEN MILAN (B VERONA VENICE (T) VENICE (M) CUNEO PULA PARMA GENOA NICE PISA ALGHERO LEIPZIG OCAGLIARI COPENHAGEN VÄXJÖ O BYDGOSZCZ PALERMO TRAPANI O COMISO VÄSTERÅS LINZ SALZBURG ROME (F) ROME (C) LAMEZIA BOLOGNA RIJEKA ZADAR MALTA GDANSK BRNO TRIESTE TIMISOARA CATANIA BRATISLAVA BARI ANCONA NIS PESCARA PODGORICA KRAKOW RZESZOW CORFU PALANGA OSIJEK KEFALONIA BUDAPEST TAMPERE OOLSZTYN-MAZURY WARSAW (M) WARSAW (C) LUBLIN KATOWICE BRINDISI TALLINN CRAIOVA ATHENS RIGA KAUNAS VILNIUS ORADEA BUCHAREST 00 CHANIA OSOFIA PLOVDIV THESSALONIKI MYKONOS KOS RHODES SANTORINI LARNACA U PAPHOS O EILAT OVDA 5#6Europe's No. 1 Market Share (15%) Country (Cap m)* UK (133) Germany (124) Spain (120) CEE (92) Italy (91) Greece (27) Portugal (24) Poland (18) Ireland (18) Belgium (17) *(Note: CapStats intra Eur Departing capacity) RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. No. 1 easyJet Luft RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. Aegean TAP RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. No. 2 RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. Air Berlin Vueling Wizz Alitalia RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. LOT Aer Lingus Brussels No. 3 BA RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. Iberia Aegean Easyjet easyJet easyJet Wizz BA Jetairfly Share 18% 7% 18% 15% 27% 15% 20% 29% 50% 28% 6#7H1 Results Traffic (m) Load Factor Avg. fare (incl. bag) Revenue (€m) Cost Per Pax PAT (€m) Net Margin EPS RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. Sep 15 58.1 93% €56 4,040 €48 1,088 27% €0.80 Sep 16 64.8 95% 4,132 €50 -10% +12% 1,168 +2% 28% €43 -10% +2% +7% +1% €0.92 +15% DOO AVA 7#8Assets (incl. a/c) Cash Total H1 Balance Sheet Liabilities Debt S/H funds Total RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. N Cash €312m Mar 16 (€m) 6,883 4,335 11,218 3,598 4,023 3,597 11,218 Sep 16 (€m) 7,179 3,905 11,084 2,587 3,828 4,669 11,084 N Cash €77m including €468m b/back €603m Capex €200m Debt r/p www 8#9Current Developments ✈ Fwd bookings rise, on lower fares & AGB (119m) ✈ Terror events & ATC strikes dampen pricing ✈ Hard Brexit a negative - weaker STG / lower growth ✈ FY18 Fuel 85% hedged @ $49pbl saves c.€140m ✈ Labs grows Ancill. Rev. to 30% over 4 years ✈ AGB raises growth from 180m to 200m by FY24 ✈ FY guidance cut from €1,400m (+12%) to €1,325m (+7%) - H2 fare risk ✈ €550m share buyback announced (Nov to Feb) RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. 9#10Fwd Bookings* still rising Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FY FY15 84% 85% 88% 91% 93% 90% 89% 88% 88% 83% 89% 90% 88% FY16 91% 92% 93% 95% 95% 94% 94% 93% 91% 88% 93% 94% 93% *(Fwd bks as % of traffic target 1 Nov 2016 v 1 Nov 2015) RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. 1 Year growth +7% +7% +5% Jun 93% +4% Jul 95% +2% Aug 95% +4% Sep 94% +5% Oct 94% +5% Nov 93% +3% Dec 91% +5% Jan 88% +4% Feb 93% +4% Mar 94% +5% FY16 Apr 91% May 92% FY17 93% 94% 2 Year Rise +9% +9% 94% +6% 96% +5% 96% +3% 95% +5% 95% +6% +2%* +2% +2% +1% +1% 10#11Brexit - negative surprise ✈ No exit plan - final outcome uncertain for 2 - 4 yrs ✈ Weaker Sterling (-18%) - lower fares ✈ Slower UK & EU GDP growth - lower fares ✈ Best outcome: UK stays in Open Skies, no change ✈ Worst outcome: WTO rules -Restore bilaterals? -Close UK dom routes or UK AOC? -UK s'holders treated as "Non EU"? -UK comps more adversely affected? ✈ Ryr <2% (intra UK cap) affected; Easy >40% (intra EU cap); BA/IAG break up? ✈ Pivot growth away from UK for next 2 years ✈ Contingency plans in place but weaker fares & profit for next 2 years RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. 11#12Labs Grows Ancill Rev to 30% over 4 yrs ✈ Ryanair.com - world's largest airline website ✈ 93% direct visits to Ryanair.com ✈ 15m App users; No. 8 UK travel App (Sep 16) ✈ App bookings - Sep 15: (5%) → Sep 16: (11%) ✈ "My Ryanair" - 15m members, 25m+ by end 2017 ✈ "Rooms" launched Oct with 2 suppliers, 5 by Y/E ✈ Ryanair Holidays product by S17 Labs builds c'mer acquisition, conversion, retention ✈ Raises traffic growth from 180m to 200m p.a. by 2024 RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. my Ryanair 0000 3 15:09 Trip to London Stansted Fri 30 Sep Add Priority Boarding ✓ First on, no queue total 5.00 EUR New in the app Add Transfer ✔Get to and from the airport from 6.00 EUR Total 64.99 EUR 000 Add Add 50% 1 my Continue 12#1345 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 LO 5 Ryanair.com No. 1 ryanair.com southwest.com RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE aa.com delta.com united.com easyjet.com (Source: SimilarWeb) Sep 16 Site Visits (m) wizzair.com britishairways.com klm.com vueling.com airfrance.fr iberia.com 13#14Labs Boosts Acquisition, Conversion, Retention Foundation Results RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. Web Visits App Installs App Bookings My Ryanair Members Res. Seats Bus/Leis + Priority Boarding Sep 15 39.9m 5m 0.4m 5.5m 2.0m 49k 223k Sep 16 46.4m 15m 1.1m 15m 2.9m 319k 508k Change (%) +6.5m (16%) +10m (200%) +0.7m (174%) +9.5m (173%) +0.9m (46%) +270k (551%) +285k (128%) 14#15AGB raises growth to 200m p.a. 200 185 165 145 125 105 85 65 C'mers (m) 15/16 RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. 69 easyJet 79 O Lufthansa 79 AIRFRANCE KLM 88 IAG FLE (Source: Annual Reports, company forecasts) 106 RYANAIR LOW ARES MADE SIMPLE 119 FY17 +5 130 FY18 +8 143 FY19 +12 152 FY20 +12 162 FY21 +15 175 FY22 +19 189 FY23 +20 200 FY24 15#16FY17 Guidance cut 5% on weaker STG ✈ Load Factor up 1% to 94% - 119m c'mers ✈ H2 fares: -13% to -15% (from -10% to -12%) ✈ Ancill. rev 30% of total rev over 4 years ✈ Fuel saving c. €170m - passed on in lower fares → Ex-fuel unit costs fall 3% ✈ PAT: €1,300m to €1,350m (up 7% on FY16) ✈ Downside risks - H2 fares (LF active/yield pass) RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. - External shocks/ATC strikes/capac. growth - Weaker STG - (now hedged) 16#17Regg RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. Appendices#18Always Getting Better ✈ Lower fares, more primary airports (FRA) ✈ New uniforms & interiors (more legroom) ✈ Biz/Leis. PLUS growing ✈ 15m App users Year 3 ✈ Ryanair Rooms launched - Oct 16 (phase 1) ✈ My Ryanair - faster bookings & 'one-flick' pay Rate my flight feature - 93% Very Good/Good ✈ Labs drives traffic growth to 200m pax p.a. RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE 18#19Oil Hedge Update Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY FY15 $945 $942 $960 $959 $950 *(Based on Jet forward curve 1 Nov 2016) RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. FY16 $934 $935 $876 $828 $898 ✈ Lower fuel passed on in lower fares FY17 $659 $652 $590 (95%) ✈ FY17 95% hedged @ $622 = saving c. €170m after vol. growth $567 (95%) $622 (95%) ✈ FY18 85% hedged @ $491 = saving c. €140m after vol. growth* FY18 $507 (90%) $492 (91%) $474 (90%) $488 (59%) $491 (85%) 19#20Increased growth to FY24 737-800 Order MAX Order RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Fleet additions +42 +44 +21 +33 +35 +24 +35 +10 Y.E. Fleet 308 341 383 427 448 481 516 540 575 585 C'mers p.a. 91m 106m 119m 130m 143m 152m 162m 175m 189m 200m Ann +11% +18% +12% +9% +10% +6% +7% +8% +8% +6% Growth Cum +11% +30% +46% +59% +75% +86% +98% +114% +131% +144% 20#21Ryanair App penetration Sep 16 UK Travel App Usage App Rank 1 2 3 4 56 7 8 15 18 20 32 34 37 * Source Similarweb RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. Google Maps London Bus TripAdvisor Swift WiFi First Bus XE Currency GPS Navigation Sygic Ryanair Airbnb Skyscanner easyJet Google Trips Hotels.com British Airways 21#22Disclaimer Certain of the information included in this presentation is forward looking and is subject to important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend upon future circumstances that may or may not occur. A number of factors could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those express or implied by the forward-looking statements including those identified in this presentation and other factors discussed in our Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC. It is not reasonably possible to itemise all of the many factors and specific events that could affect the outlook and results of an airline operating in the European economy. Among the factors that are subject to change and could significantly impact Ryanair's expected results are the airline pricing environment, fuel costs, "Brexit", competition from new and existing carriers, market prices for the replacement aircraft, costs associated with environmental, safety and security measures, actions of the Irish, U.K., European Union ("EU") and other governments and their respective regulatory agencies, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and interest rates, airport access and charges, labour relations, the economic environment of the airline industry, the general economic environment in Ireland, the UK and Continental Europe, the general willingness of passengers to travel and other economics, social and political factors and flight interruptions caused by volcanic ash emissions or other atmospheric disruptions. These and other factors could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of events or developments referred to in this presentation on the Ryanair Group. Forward looking statements contained in this presentation based on trends or activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. Except as may be required by the Market Abuse Rules of the Central Bank of Ireland, Listing Rules of the Irish Stock Exchange or by any other rules of any applicable regulatory body or by law, the Company disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward statements contained herein to reflect any changes in the Company's expectations with regard to any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements as defined under US legislation. By their nature, such statements involve uncertainty; as a consequence, actual results and developments may differ from those expressed in or implied by such statements depending on a variety of factors including the specific factors identified in this presentation and other factors discussed in our Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC RYANAIR LOW FARES. MADE SIMPLE. 22

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