#1NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE (KHARIF CAMPAIGN-2022) 19th April, 2022 KHARIF PROSPECTS AND STRATEGIES O सत्यमेव जयते Dr. A. K. Singh Agriculture Commissioner Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare#2Area (Million hectare) AREA AND PRODUCTION OF CROPS IN 2021-22 (2nd Adv. Est.) Crops Production (Million ton) Kharif Rabi Total Kharif Rabi Total Rice 41.58 5.20 46.78 109.54 18.39 127.93 Wheat 30.95 30.95 111.32 111.32 Sorghum 1.48 2.38 3.86 1.58 2.73 4.31 Bajra 7.05 7.05 9.22 9.22 Maize 8.00 1.86 9.86 22.59 9.83 32.42 Ragi 1.13 1.13 1.67 1.67 Small millets 0.41 0.41 0.33 0.33 Barley 0.68 0.68 1.90 1.90 Total Coarse cereals 18.06 4.92 22.98 35.39 14.47 49.86 cum Nutri Cereals Total Pulses 14.03 16.34 30.37 8.61 18.34 26.95 Total food grains 73.67 57.41 131.08 153.54 162.52 316.06 Total Oil seeds 19.75 9.01 28.76 23.82 13.33 37.15#3METEOROLOGICAL SUBDIVISIONS RAINFALL - RABI & SUMMER SEASON (mm) POST-MONSOON, 2021 (01.10.21 to 31.12.21) WINTER - 2022 (01.01.22 to 28.02.22) MARCH, 2022 ONWARD (01.03.22 to 06.04.22) ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP. ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP. ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP. EAST & NORTH EAST INDIA 186.3 166.7 12% 73.4 52.1 41% 85.9 85.0 1% NORTH WEST INDIA 80.5 55.9 44% 108.3 78.9 37% 5.2 53.5 -90% CENTRAL INDIA 106.4 76.0 40% 26.6 15.2 75% 1.4 10.2 -87% SOUTH PENINSULA 444.6 277.1 60% 24.2 16.2 49% 15.6 19.5 -20% COUNTRY AS A WHOLE 177.7 123.8 44% 58.7 40.8 44% 18.8 37.3 -50% • Post monsoon rainfall : was (+) 44% Rabi 2022 rainfall winter : was (+) 44% Rabi: Western disturbances rains coupled with cold wave condition benefitted Rabi crops (wheat, mustard and gram) . • Normal Forecast for Kharif - 2022 3#4STATUS OF AREA SOWN FOR SUMMER CROP as on 08.04.2022 Area Sown (LAKH HA) Sl. No. Crops 2021-22 2020-21 Increase/ Decrease over last year 12 a Rice Pulses Greengram 28.22 30.16 -1.94 9.32 8.48 0.84 6.12 6.38 -0.26 b Blackgram 2.84 1.82 1.02 C Other Pulses 0.36 0.28 0.08 3 Coarse Cereals 8.78 8.72 0.06 a Jowar 0.17 0.08 0.09 b Bajra 2.97 2.49 0.47 C Ragi 0.22 0.17 0.05 d 4 Maize Oilseeds 5.42 5.98 -0.56 9.45 9.11 0.33 a Groundnut 4.83 5.20 -0.37 b Sunflower 0.36 0.49 -0.14 C Sesamum 3.62 3.34 0.28 d Other Oilseeds 0.64 0.07 0.56 Total 55.76 56.47 -0.71#5(in Quintals) TENTATIVE REQUIREMENT & AVAILABILITY OF SEEDS FOR MAJOR CROPS Crops Group Crop KHARIF-2022 Requirement Surplus/Deficit (in Quintals) Availability (in Quintals) Paddy 7599868 1. Cereals Maize 1065256 8873767 1061094 1273899 -4162 Bajra 234869 260447 25578 2. Nutri-Cereals Jowar 95577 108191 12614 Millets 7590 8767 1177 Arhar 269831 302295 32464 Urd 227903 237105 9202 3. Pulses Moong 196480 217806 21326 Cowpea 27111 29044 1933 Moth 25000 28668 3668 4. Oilseeds Groundnut Soybean Sunflower 2131597 2188249 56652 3721005 3502563 -218442 12588 16071 3483 Sesame 18909 20598 1689 Castor 49165 52622 3457 *Based on tentative information provided by the states in ZSRM Kharif-2022, the deficiency shows will be met from Farm Saved Seed, NSC & Private Seed Companies as informed by States.#6REQUIREMENT & SALES OF FERTILIZERS IN 2021 AND REQUIRMENT IN KHARIF -2022 (Lakh Tonnes) KHARIF: 2021 KHARIF: 2022 Fertilizers Total sales Assessed requirement Assessed requirement Urea 177.53* 154.02 179.01** DAP 65.18 41.90 58.82 MOP 20.24 11.23 19.82 NPK 61.87 62.03 63.72 SSP 26.46 25.62 33.19 Reserve Allocation- 2.85 LMT (Total Allocation- 180.38 LMT) ** Reserve Allocation - 0 LMT (Total Allocation - 179.01 LMT) Use of Bio-fertilizers, Neem Coated urea, Use of Micro-nutrients Source: INM & FMS, DAC, GOI 6#7* National Crop Production Targets for 2022-23 (In Million Tonnes) Season Crop Rice Wheat Kharif 112.00 Rabi Total 18.50 130.50 112.00 112.00 Maize Barley 23.10 10.10 33.20 2.25 2.25 Total Coarse Cereals 23.10 12.35 35.45 Jowar 3.00 3.00 6.00 Bajra 11.30 11.30 Ragi 2.50 2.50 Small Millets 0.70 0.70 Total Nutri Cereals 17.50 3.00 20.50 Tur (Arhar) 4.55 4.55 Gram Urad 13.50 13.50 2.70 1.00 3.70 Moong Other Kharif Pulses Other Rabi Pulses 2.50 1.50 4.00 0.80 0.80 3.00 3.00 Total Pulses Total Foodgrains Total Oilseed Sugarcane Cotton* ** Jute* Mesta** 10.55 19.00 29.55 163.15 164.85 328.00 26.89 14.45 41.34 415.00 415.00 37.00 37.00 10.00 10.00 0.50 0.50 Jute & Mesta** 10.50 10.50 Production in Million bales of 170 kg for Cotton, ** Production in Million bales of 180 kg for Jute & Mesta.#8Pulses Scenerio In Million Tonnes Pulses Present Status Target Projections 2020-21 2021-22 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 Demand Production 28.18 29.26 31.83 32.64 35.23 25.72 26.96* 29.79 30.75 33.95 Import Requirement 2.46 2.30 2.04 1.89 1.28 Dependency on Import 9% 8% 6% 5.7% 3.6% *2nd Advance Estimates Source: Working Group recommendations on Final Projections, Niti Ayog Dependency on Import (2016-21) Dependency on import can easily be neutralized by little additional production of 1.5-2.0 million tonnes than the target Import Substitution Rs. 28523.90 crore in 2016-17 to Rs.11937.59 crore from 6.6 Mt in 2016-17 to 2.46 Mt in 2020-21 QUANTITY (THOUSAND TONNES) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 N HT 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 8 RS.(CRORES)#9Trends of area, production and yield of Pulses in India (2015-16 to 2021-22) * 2nd Advance Estimates; Source: Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Govt. of India 35 1000 900 30 800 25 700 600 20 500 15 400 10 300 200 5 100 0 0 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22* Area (Mha) 24.91 29.45 29.81 29.16 27.99 28.78 30.37 Production (Mt) 16.32 23.13 25.42 22.08 23.03 25.46 26.96 -Yield (Kg/ha) 656 786 853 757 823 885 888 Area (Mha) Production (Mt) Self-sufficiency in Pulses: a Saga of Success Yield (Kg/ha) Linear (Production (Mt)) Year 2015-16 2017-18 Increase in 2017-18 over 2015-16 Net increase % Production (Mt) 16.32 25.42 + 9.10 55.8 Area (Mha) 24.91 29.81 + 4.90 19.7 Yield (Kg/ha) 655 853 + 198 30.2#10Sustaining Self-sufficiency in Pulses Closing the yield gaps (Presently yield gaps ranges from 17.1% in Lentil to 196.8% in Mothbean) Area expansion (Additional potential area: 6.2 million ha) Productivity enhancement (From 817 kg/ha to 1000 kg/ha) 10 10#1170 760 60 50 40 32.64 29.19 30 26.68 20 10 36.37 0 URD MOONG 100 50 33.8 80 66.6 56.1 SRR of Pulse Crops 61.05 32.14 23.45 17.51 18.38 30.94 22.6 40.48 PEAS GRAM LENTIL ARHAR 2010-11 2019-20 VRR of Pulse Crops 37.9 89.5 0 Pigeonpea Chickpea Mungbean 61.3 52.4 37.9 85.3 Urdbean Fieldpea ■2014-15 ■■■2021-22 50.4 90.8 Lentil Source: DAC&FW and IISR, Mau#12Edible Oils: Demand-Supply Gap Widening The gap between demand and supply for edible oils has widened in India over the years - as the per capita consumption of edible oils has increased from 15.8 kg/year in 2012-13 to 18.8 kg/year in 2019-20 - and there has been 2.48% annual growth in the per capita consumption Increasing productivity and acreage under oilseeds are the two pronged approach along with the strategies/action plans, similar to that of pulses, for marching towards the self-sufficiency in edible oils.#13Edible Oil Sector Edible oil for available Domestic Production Imports Value of import Year for consumption (MT) (MT) (Rs. in crore) (MT) Dependency on imports (%) Per capita Consumption (kg/yr) 1986-87 5.34 3.87 1.47 700 28.0 6.2 1994-95 7.54 7.19 0.35 300 5.0 7.3 2014-15 21.36 8.63 12.73 64,894 59.6 18.3 2019-20 25.06 10.60 14.46 68,576 57.7 18.7 2020-21 25.82 12.47 13.35 79,190 54.9 18.2 Source: Department of Sugar & Vegetable Oils; DG, CI&S, Dept. of Commerce, Kolkata ICMR recommendation i.e. 30 g/person/day: 12 kg/person/annum Total import of edible oils: 13.35 million tons (Palm oil (56%), Soybean oil (27%), Sunflower oil (16%), Others (1%)#14Trends of area, production and yield of Oilseeds in India (2015-16 to 2021-22) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 40 40 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 10 10 5 0 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22* Area (Mha) 26.09 26.18 24.51 24.79 27.14 28.83 28.76 Production (Mt) 25.25 31.28 31.46 31.52 33.22 35.95 37.15 Yield (Kg/ha) 968 1195 1284 1271 1224 1247 1292 Area (Mha) Production (Mt) Yield (Kg/ha) • Linear (Production (Mt)) * 2nd Advance Estimates; Source: Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Govt of India#15Crop Reducing Yield Gap in Edible Oilseeds Existing yield gap (%) Target for 2025-26 for minimizing yield gap (%) up to Soybean 50 20 Rapeseed-Mustard 27 15 Groundnut 40 15 Sesame 22 10 Sunflower 160 20 Safflower 81 45 Niger 40 15 Average 60 20 The average yield gap in edible oilseeds is about 60%. Reducing the yield gap to 20% in the next five years may lead to 13-14 Mt additional production of edible oilseeds (~ 3-4 Mt edible oils) without bringing any additional area under them. 15#16State-wise APY of Sunflower and gap over the period 1993-94 2020-21* Area (lakh ha), Production (lakh tonnes) & Yield (kg/ha) APY gap & % between 2020-21 and 1993-94 States Area Production Yield Area Production Yield Area Production Yield Karnataka 14.69 4.75 323 1.2 1.08 898-13.49 (92%) -3.67 (77%) 575 A.P. 3.9 2.17 556 0.12 0.08 692-3.78 (97%) -2.09 (96%) 136 Maharashtra 5.72 3.54 619 0.26 0.12 466-5.46 (95%) -3.42 (97%) -153 Haryana 0.4 0.65 1625 0.11 0.25 2004-0.29 (73%) -0.40 (62%) 379 Punjab 0.85 1.46 1718 0.02 0.04 1870-0.83(98%) -1.42 (97%) 152 T.N. 0.4 0.33 825 0.06 0.03 545-0.34 (85%) -0.30 (91%) -280 U.P. 0.36 0.43 1194 0.04 0.05 1372-0.32 (89%) -0.38 (88%) 178 Other 0.36 0.15 417 0.45 0.63 14000.16 (44%) 0.52 (347%) 983 All India 26.68 13.48 505 2.26 2.28 1011-24.42 (92%) -11.20 (83%) 506 * As per final estimate of DES 16#17Strategy for Sunflower Area expansion: Targeting area expansion in traditional and non-traditional areas with quality seed supply. Productivity improvement: Achieving higher productivity through technology (BMPs) adoption and reducing yield gap. Profitability improvement: Integrating secondary agriculture and value addition opportunities through apiary, oil extraction, thalamus utilization, mechanization, etc. Capacity Development: Training farmers, extension agencies and technical manpower on full lifecycle supply and value chain opportunity and entrepreneurship development. 17#18Cotton - State specific challenges and interventions State Area Production Yield Punjab Haryana Rajasthan 17.5 (13.4%) 13.4 (17.1%) 585 · Challenges Whitefly Leaf curl Virus Pink boll worm (PBW) Soil crusting Interventions . • Use of virus tolerant hybrids • Monitoring/mating disruption technique for PBW near ginneries/oil extraction units . Gujarat 23.9 (18.4%) 81.7 (23.1%) 577 Pink boll worm • MP ETL based neem & pesticide Application (pheromone traps 2/ac, ETL 10% flower damage or boll damage) • Use of early maturing hybrids • PBW management Promotion of Herbaceum cotton in north Gujarat • Certification & quality input supply 6.0 (4.7%) 14.9 (4.3%) 416 Sustain the organic cotton value chain • Promotion of ELS cotton Boll rot • Maharashtra 44.1 (33.8%) 80.9 (23.0%) 312 • Pink bollworm Low productivity in rainfed shallow soils APY figures are average of three years (2019-20, 20- 21, 21-22), %share in total, Area in lakh ha, Production in lakh bales and Yield in Kglint/ha • Poor soil health • High density planting system (compact Bt varieties/hybrids) • Boll rot management (between 60-90 days, prophylactic) • •IPM/IRM of Jassid & PBW Promotion of long linted desi cotton varieties#19State Cotton - State specific challenges and interventions Production Area Telangana 21.8 (16.7%) 64 (18.2%) Challenges Yield 500 • Low productivity in red soils • Thrips (dry spells) & Andhra Pradesh 6.0 (4.5%) 19.1 (5.4%) 542 • • • Tamil Nadu 1.3 (1.0%) 3.2 (0.9%) 400 • • boll rot (excess rains) Pink bollworm Late season rains/cyclones Sucking pests, TSV disease Pink bollworm Stem weevil, tea mosquito bug, Thrips Low productivity of ELS cotton Karnataka 7.8 (6.0%) 21.6 (6.2%) 473 . Mirid bug, PBW . Leaf reddening Odisha 1.8 (1.4%) 6.0 (1.7%) 570 Non-Bt seeds Interventions High Density planting system in shallow to medium soils Crop window & ETL based sprays for boll rot & PBW Timely sowing and crop termination HDPS in rainfed shallow soils, ICM in heavy soils IDM boll rot, leaf spots and IRM for PBW ETL based sucking pest management Mulch cum drip fertigation technique for ELS cotton Sucking pest management Nutrient management Mating disruption for PBW Quality seed production APY figures are average of three years (2019-20, 20-21, 21-22), % share in total, Area in lakh ha, Production in lakh bales and Yield in Kg lint/ha#20Rice: Performance of major 10 Varieties (75% HHs) in Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh 5 4.54 4.26 4.02 3.99 3.99 3.91 3.88 3.82 T T 3.68 T 3.61 T Paddy yield (t ha‍¹) 3 2 1 0 MTU 7029 BPT5204 Arize 6444 Gold Rajendra Mansoori l Moti Gold Moti Pioneer 27P31 Sonam Damini Sarju52#21LET US STRATEGISE ACCORDINGLY ■ Timely arrangement of inputs ■ Mobilizing extension staff for field deployment ■ Implementation & monitoring ■ Cluster approach for crop productivity enhancement Cropping system centric interventions: Focus on Pulse, Oil seeds, Nutricereals ■ Utilization of rice fallow, intercropping, rainfed areas, summer season ■ Increasing Seed Replacement Rate and Varietal Replacement ■ Increasing water and nutrient use efficiency Large scale adoption of improved technologies 21 21#22THANK YOU