#1UNECE SCHO CHOOL R HIGHER NOMICS NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY UNECE DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN RUSSIA: ACHIEVEMENTS, BOTTLENECKS AND PROSPECTS Dr. Georgy Ermolenko Head of the center for the development of renewable energy, Energy Institute, National Research University - Higher School of Economics the 4-th Session of the UNECE Group of Experts on Renewable Energy Geneva, 2-3 November 2017#2SHER-SCHO OF ECONO R NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY RES Legislation in Force Decree of July 28, 2015 №1472-p "On stimulation of production of power generation from renewable sources", Governmental Decree of November 10, 2015 No 2279-p "Changes the main directions of the state policy in the field of improving energy the efficiency of power sector using renewable energy sources for the period till 2024", the Resolution of the Russian Government dated 10 November 2015 No 1210 "On amendments to certain acts of the Russian Federation on the use of renewable energy sources in the wholesale power(capacity) market" and Resolution from May 5, 2016 N 850-r "The changes that are made to the main directions of the state policy in the field of improving energy efficiency of power sector using renewable energy sources" for the period until 2024 formed a support mechanism for renewable energy in the wholesale power market, including: - Targets for the types of renewable energy development to 2024, Types of RES 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Bcero Wind 51 50 200 400 500 500 500 500 500 399 3600 Solar 35,2 140 199 150 270 270 270 21,5 21,5 21,5 21,5 1520 Hydro - 124 141 159 159 42 42 42 42 751 Total 35,2 191 249 574 811 929 929 563,5 563,5 563,5 462,5 5871 2#3CHER - SCHO OF ECONO R NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY Targets for Local Production - Targets for local production of the main and (or) auxiliary generating equipment, Types of generating facilities Year of commissioning Target degree of localization Generating facilities operating on the basis of 2016 25% wind power 2017 40% 2018 55% 2019-2024 65% Generating facilities operating on the basis of the 2014 - 2015 50% photoelectric conversion of solar energy 2016-2024 70% Generating facilities operating on the basis of other renewable energy sources 2014-2015 2016-2017 2018 - 2024 20% 45% 65% - Accounting in marginal cost of capital return on invested capital and the change in exchange rates in Russia 3#4OF ECO ECONO R SHOTH® NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY Selected and realized RES projects at Whole Sale Market Projects of solar energy are leading, of them already is commissioned about 5%. This year, 120 MW should be introduced - 90 MW will be provided by solar power plants. In second place are wind power projects with a total declared capacity of 2809.3 MW with no completed projects, the third - the declared 70. 44 MW of hydropower, also not completed. The planned volume of installed capacity, MW 2015 2016 2017 Σ 2013 2014 Wind power 399.2 505 280 1625.1 2809.3 Solar power 105 51 35 610 520 1321 Hydropower facilities Solid waste based power generation 20,64 49,8 49.8 120.24 335.5 335.5#5CHER - SCHOO OF ECONO R NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY PV plant/ region Commissioned Solar PV plants Time period Installed capacity, Power production in Annual power production, ICUF, Actual, MW the period, MWh % MWh Kosch-Achag PVP/ 04.2015- 5.0 1200 7500 17.1 Altai Republick 11.2016 (1.6 year) Bugulchan PVP/ 01.2016- 5.0 4500 7500 17.1 07.2016 Bashkiria (0.6 year) Abakan PVP/ 12.2015- 5.2 6000 7500 15.8 06.2016 Hakasia 0.6 year) Orsk PVP/ Orenburg region 12.2015- 25.0 55000 36667 16.7 06.2017 (1.5 year) 4 PVP Sachaenergo/Yakutia, North East 2014 0.1 (total) 100 100 11.4 5#6GHER-SCHO R OF ECO NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY Local Production of Main and Auxiliary Equipment WIND ENERGY SOLAR ENERGY 1. ROSATOM – LAGERWAY - 2. FORTUM – VESTAS - 3. ENEL – GAMESA&SIEMENS - 1. HEVEL - heterostructure PV modules. PC - 160 MW/year 2. SATURN - multi-junction GalnP/GaAs/Ge solar cells 2. RZMP – polycrystalline modules - 3. QUANTUM - gallium arsenide single-crystals of 6 4. SOLAR WIND modules - polycrystalline#7GHER-SCHO OF ECONO R NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY Retail market Pricing and non-pricing zones of the wholesale market Sale of electricity to grid organizations in order to compensate for losses Territories and regions not connected to UES Sale of electricity to the guarantee supplier at regulated prices (tariffs) In the retail market operate 33 qualified renewable energy units with total installed capacity 294.3 MW (including 202.8 MW in Crimea) 7#8CHER • SCHO R OF-ECC NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY RES projects in remote regions 8 Оценка ветрового ресурса: Установленные ветроизмерительные комплексы: Обоснования инвестиций: Проектная документация: Строительно-монтажные работы: более 150 ВЭС (более 2500 МВт) более 35 (4 в Казахстане) 17 ВЭС (458 МВт) 8 ВЭС (46 МВт) 6 ВЭС (2 205 кВт) Ветродизельный комплекс на основе двух восстановленных ВЭУ Vestas единичной мощностью 225 кВт, с. Новиково, о. Сахалин Заказчик: ОАО «Передвижная энергетика>> 000 <<<Активити» генподрядчик#9GHER-SCHO R ECONO NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY The participants of RES industry in Russia in the wholesale market of power (capacity) Strategic investor Equipment producer SPV with commissioned plant The plant of future construction Developer Planning company SPV of plant under construction Constructed plant Engineering company R&D companies Parent company Operating company Company combining 2 types of activities Production ties Ownership relations Negotiations are underway 9 Company combining 3 types of activities#10GHER-SCHO CONOM OF ECO R NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY Bright Capital LLC. «Solar Management>> Bright Capital Management Ltd. Solar power sector of Russia SC «Solar Energy>> <<KompeksInsustria»> «IEC Energoholding>> 13 SPP; 195 MW Astrachan, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Chelyabinsk, Volgograd regions; Zabaykalsk krai; Republic Buryatia Astrachan, Irkutsk, Volgograd, Chelyabinsk regions; Stavropol provine; Republic Kalmykia <<Evrosibenergo»> En+ Group Ltd. «Krasnoyarsk HPP>> <<Renova» <<Rosnano>> Republic Bashkortostan <<Evrosibenergo Engineering»> «Abakan SPP», 5.198 MW Republick Hakasia <<T Plus>> <<Hevel»> «Avelar Solar Technology>> «Baymaksk SPP»>, 10 MW «Buribaevsk SPP», 20 «Yldybayevsk SPP>>, «Kosch-Agach SPP>>, 5 MW Amur Sirius Power Equipment Co., Ltd. 3 SPP; 135 MW Orenburg region Orenburg brunch <<T Pus>> <<STC SFT>> <<Solar Systems>> «Heliotechnik Sirius>> Orsk SPP, 25 MW Orenburg Region «Samarskaya SPP>>, 75 MW Samara region 6 SPP; 150 MW Volgograd region; Stavropol provine; Republic Kalmykia <<MEK-Engineering>> SPP «Hunzach-1>> 5 MW Republic Dagestan SPP «Kaspiyskaya»> 5 MW Republic Dagestan IC<<EKRA>> 10 MW Republic Bashkortostan «Matraevsk SPP»>, 5 Production plant <<Hevel»> SPP «Kaspiyskaya»> first stage 1 MW Republic Dagestan SPP «Kaspiyskaya>> second stage 4 MW Republic Dagestan MW Republic Bashkortostan «Ak'yarsk SPP», 5 MW Republic Bashkortostan ACT-Bashkirsk SPP -6,5 MW Republic Bashkortostan MW Republic Bashkortostan Republic Altay «Perevolotsk SPP>>, 5 MW Orenburg Region «Bugulchansk SPP>>, 15 MW Republic Bashkortostan 000 «Isyangulovsk SPP»>, 9 MW Republic Bashkortostan << Derjavinsk SPP>> 5 MW Orenburg Region Orenburg SPP-5»>; 10 MW Orenburg Region <<Kosch-Achagsk SPP>> -2», 5 MW Republic Altay «Sol-llitsk SPP»>, 25 MW Orenburg Region «Grachevsk SPP>>, 10 MW 22 SPP; 245 MW Orenburg Region Orenburg, Saratov, Omsk regions Republics Altay, Buryatya, Bashkortostan ; Zabaykalsky, Altay provinces Industrial group«Basic Element» Yingli Energy (China) Co., Ltd. Export Sales PVP Local Market 10#11GHER-SCHO OF ECO R NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY Wind power sector of Russia Falcon Capital a.s. «ALTEN>> Sowitec group GmbH Enel SpA Enel Investment Holding B.V. Lahmeyer International <<Project Institute of Kalmykia» «Solar Management>> «Priyutninsk WPP>> stage, 51 MW Republic Kalmykia FWT Production GmbH Bright Capital LLC. Bright Capital Management Ltd. SC «Solar Energy>> 7 WPP; 105 MW Astrachan, Orenburg, Ulyanovsk regions «ComplexIndustria>> Sowitec International GmbH <<Enel Russia>> Windlife Renewables B.V. SC<<ROSATOM⟫>> «Atomenergoprom>> 000 <<SOWITEC Russia» <<Windlife Cola»> JC«OTEC⟫> <<Wind generating company>> <<Went Rus>> «WindEnergySystems>> <<Russian Wind>> Fortum Corporation <<Fortum>> <<TEP Engineering>> «WPP Simbirsky», 35 MW <<Activity>> Ulyanovsk region Dongfang Electric 11 <<Wind Nº5>> - 3 WPP: 150 MW Republic Adygeya <<WindUGC>> 23 WPP; 460 MW Krasnodarsky kray «Atomenrgomasch>> <<EvroSibEnergo»> En+ Group Ltd. IG«Basic Element>>#12GHER-SCHO R OF ECO NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY Organic fuels substitution potential of RES Taking into consideration the use of statistical data on the consumption of oil equivalents by power stations by type of fossil fuel (Russian Federal State Statistics Service, 2016) proved that the cumulative technical potential of all renewables amounts to 133935 m of oil equivalent. If renewables would be used to replace oil fuel it would allow saving approx. 97760 m tons of oil fuel per year, with the replacement of coal - 174390 m tone per year. Replacement of natural gas will save 115980 b of cubic meters per year. Tables 2, 3 feature the outcomes of the assessment of oil fuel, coal and natural gas savings with the replacement of fossil fuels with various types of renewables, prevention of air pollution calculated as CO - and CO2-equivalents. Technical potential Fuel and power potential Oil fuel potential Power Heat Fuel Type of renewables Resource- saving Environmental mln kWh/year mln gcal/year mln toe/year mln t/year CO- equiv., CO₂- equiv., mln t/g mln t/g Solar energy 87747704,0 202293,0 30060,7 21942,1 27425,7 65826,4 Wind energy 17100856,7 39645,0 5891,2 4300,2 5374,8 12900,5 Biomass energy 2896910,9 5783,6 859,4 627,3 784,1 1882,0 Geothermal 246592891,6 571677,3 84951,3 62008,2 77504,7 186024, 6 energy Low-grade heat 34753230,8 80568,6 11972,5 Small hydro 584534,9 1355,1 198,7 8739,0 145,1 10923,0 26217,1 181,3 435,2 12#13GHER-SCHO R OF ECO NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY Organic fuels substitution potential of RES Technical potential Coal potential Gas potential Type of renewables Resource- saving Environmental Resource- saving Environmental CO-equiv., m t/year m t/g CO2 -equiv., m t/g b m³/year CO- equiv., m t/g CO₂- equiv., m t/g Solar energy 39141,6 861099,3 117424,8 25969,0 5401,8 51938,0 Wind energy 7670,9 168756,6 23012,7 5105,1 1061,9 10210,1 Biomass energy 1119,1 24619,1 3357,2 744,8 154,9 1489,5 Geothermal energy 110613,6 2433455,1 331840,8 73614,6 15312,5 147229,2 Low-grade heat 15589,2 342955,7 46767,5 10374,8 2158,0 20749,5 Small hydro 258,8 5693,0 776,3 172,2 35,8 344,4 13#14OF ECONOR R GHER-SCHO NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY Organic fuels substitution potential of RES In accordance with national of development of indicators of renewable energy in the wholesale market up to 2024 should be introduced in 1520 MW of solar generation, 2024 to 3600 MW of wind generation in the retail market is provided cover of 5% of losses in electric grids UES by RES. In accordance with the forecast of the Ministry of Energy, renewable energy development in the areas of isolated power supply to 2024 it is predicted commissioning of 300 MW of wind and 300 MW of solar generation. Accordingly, with the full implementation of these plans and projections for the wholesale market after 2024, solar energy will be presented in the amount of 2.7 bln. KWh/year, wind - in the amount of 11.07 billion kWh / year at optimistic capacity factor of the equipment. To cover the losses in the grids these types of sources will supply about 5 billion kWh/year, and in the isolated systems of 1.05 billion kWh/year. Total realized plans and forecasts can lead to an annual substitution of 3.2% organic fuels coming for energy needs. 14#15CHER SCHO OF ECONOR R NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY Perspectives and bottle necks According to the Energy Strategy, by the year 2035, 8.5 GW of RES generation facilities should appear in the Russian Federation, of which 5.5 GW will already be introduced by 2024. Thus, the rate of commissioning of new facilities (3 GW for the period 2024-2035) after the end of the program will decrease. This means that capacities created under the DPM program with a potential to produce up to 800 MW / year of RES facilities (500 MW / year of wind, 300 MW / year of solar power plants) and capable of providing at least 10 GW of renewable energy in Russia in the period 2024-2035 years will not be fully loaded or will be idle. By developing renewable energy sources, we are creating in Russia two new high- tech industries in parallel: the production of equipment and machinery for renewable energy, and the construction and operation of such facilities. The only correct solution in this case will be to discard all doubts and create a large- scale and promising branch of renewable energy, develop and develop competencies in this area, be integrated into global production chains and be one of the main players in the world market of RES. 15#16GHER-SCHO R OF ECO CONOM NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY Thank you! [email protected]