#1भारत मौस INDIA METEOR विज्ञान विभाग DEPARTMENT आदित्यात् LOGICAL जाय ते वृष्टिः Ministry of Earth Sciences (MOES) India Meteorological Department Welcomes You All for the Press Release of Salient Features of Southwest Monsoon 2021 30th September 2021 भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT#2Salient Features of Monsoon 2021 Southwest monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole during (Jun-Sep) 2021 has been normal (96 -104% of LPA). Quantitatively the 2021 all India monsoon seasonal rainfall during 1 June to 30 September 2021 has been 87.0 cm against long period average of 88.0 cm based on data of 1961-2010 (99% of its Long Period Average (LPA)) Southwest monsoon seasonal (June-September) rainfall over four homogeneous rainfall is Normal over Northwest India(96%) and central India(104%). Seasonal rainfall is below normal over East and Northeast India (88%) and above normal over South Peninsula India (111%). Considering month to month rainfall variation over India as a whole, the season is very uniquely placed in the historical record for its distinct and contrasting month to month variation. The rainfall over country as a whole was 110%, 93%, 76% and 135% of LPA during June, July, August and September respectively. भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (826.6 (24) जल मौसम विज्ञान प्रभाग, नई दिल्ली HYDROMET DIVISION, NEW DELHI SUBDIVISION RAINFALL MAP Period: 01-06-2021 To 30-09-2021 401.6 (-29) Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, 566.0 #36.8 Punjab 467.3 690.10 Himachal Pradesh 783.5 5707 (30) Har Chd. and Delhi 444.0 1152.9 (-2) Uttarakhand 1176.9 572.6 (-21) Uttar Pradesh, 721.3 317.5 (20) 696.7 (16) W. Rajasthan 265.3 Saurashtra and Kutch 507.2 Legend 788.8 (-15 E. Rajasthan 602.9 980.9 (14) Gujarat Regio W. Madhya Pradesh 922.9 857.7 867.8 (3) E. Uttar Pradesh 839.4 1044.3 (3) Bihar 1794.49) SHWBand Sikki 70.8 1017.2 1043.4 (-1) Jharkhand 1548.5 (31) 1054.7 Gangetic WB 1181 891.6 (-15) Madhya Pradesh 1048.4 968.9 (3) Vidarbha 943.1 1107.7 (-3) Chhattisgarh 1142.1 1046.0 (-9) Odisha 1155.3 9889(48 Marathawada 668.8 872.6 ( Madhya Maharashtra 751.2 1044.2 (39) Telangana 751.9 AP. and Yapam 3559 8 (24) Konkan and Goa 607.3 (22) 2875.3 NI Karnataka 7 488.2 (19) Rayalaseema SI Karnataka 411.6 497.1 278.5-10 Coastal Kataka 3096 699.0 681.8 40 (20) 1288.8 (-25) Arunachal Pradesh 1726.6 1387 3 (-22) Assam and Meghalaya 1773.7 975 (-32 NMMT ALL INDIA Actual Normal % Dep. 874.6 880.6 -1 CATEGORYWISE NO. OF SUBDIVISIONS LARGE EXCESS 0 EXCESS 10 1719.1 (16) 393.4 (17) Kerala and Mahe. Pudu. and Karaikal 2049.3 NORMAL 20 336.1 2825.0 (22) DEFICIENT 6 A and N island 1653.8 LARGE DEFICIENT NORAIN 0 0 790.9 (-22) Lakshadweep 1013.1 N Large Excess [60% or more] Excess [ 20% to 59% ] Normal [-19% to 19% ] Deficient [-59% to -20% ] Large Deficient [-99% to -60%] No Rain [-100% ] No Data NOTES: a) Rain Fall figures are based on operation data. b) Small figures indicate actual rainfal (mm), while bold figures indicate Normal rainfall (mm). c) Percentage Departures of rainfall are shown in brackets. भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT#330.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 RAINFALL %DEP 10.0 -20.0 -30.0 1901 Rainfall Time series (% Departure) for the southwest monsoon season ALL INDIA (JUNE-SEP) RAINFALL %DEP TII 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 YEAR 1973 INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग ןיודן اسار ױן 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021#4Weekly Rainfall (% Departure) during Southwest Monsoon season Monthly and Seasonal rainfall of Monsoon 2021-All India and Homogenous Regions ■ ALL INDIA 83 100 80 60 40 40 ■ NW INDIA ■NE INDIA 40 CENTRAL INDIA 34 26 ■S PENINSULA 25 18 20 14 10 3 3 11 3 0 -20 -40 -7 -7 -7 -26 -24 -31 -39 -11 -30 -1 -4 -12 -60 JUNE JULY AUG SEPT JUNE-SEPT भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT#50° 60°E 40°N 60°E 70°E 80°E 90°E Advance of Southwest Monsoon 2021 Southwest Monsoon Covered the Entire Country on 13 July, 2021 25 June 30 Supe Srinagar Leh 13 July 5 July Jam 8 Ju 20 June 13 parashala Shimla 100°E Monsoon onset 2021 DAILY MEAN RAINFALL (mm) OVER THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE (2021) N W E 200 400 600 km RAINFALL (mm) 30°N Chandigarh 12 duly Dehradun 15 June 10 June 5 June 12 June 6-10-June 13 July 12 July Gangtok Manager Jaip Lucknow 1 8 July 19 Jun 11 July Patna 5 July Dispur Kohima Shillong driphal 1 June 26 May 30 June Gandhinagar Bhopal 18 June 20°N 11-17 June 25 June Bilasp Radr 9-10 June 6-8 June Bhab swar 5 June 20°N 22 May 20-Jame Mumbai 4 June 15 June 5 June Visakhapatnam 27 May 3 June Hyderaba 10 June Amaravati 2-26 May 4 June Panaji Bay of Bengal Arabian Sea 5 June 21 May Bengali Chenna 10°N 3 June 10°N Lakshadweep 1 June thirdvananthapuram 22 May 27 May-2 June 25-26 May 26 May 22-24 May 21 May Normal Dates of Onset Actual Dates of Onset 70°E Indian Ocean 80°E 90°E Andaman & Nicobar Island 100°E 0° - STANDARDIZED RAINFALL ----- 4.4 3.6 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -20 T 2 0 12 16 I ACTUAL 14 NORMAL: 1961-2010 10 8 19-Jul 22-Jul 25-Jul 28-Jul 31-Jul 03-Aug 06-Aug 09-Aug 12-Aug 15-Aug 18-Aug 21-Aug Rainfall Anomaly over Core Monsoon Zone STANDARDIZED RAINFALL OVER THE CORE MONSOON ZONE REGION (2021) 1-Jun 6-Jun 11-Jun 16-Jun 21-Jun 26-Jun भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 33 1-Jul 6-Jul 11-Jul 16-Jul 21-Jul 26-Jul 31-Jul 5-Aug 10-Aug 15-Aug 20-Aug 25-Aug 24-Aug 27-Aug 30-Aug 02-Sep 05-Sep 08-Sep 11-Sep 14-Sep 17-Sep 20-Sep 23-Sep 26-Sep 29-Sep 30-Aug 4-Sep 9-Sep 14-Sep 19-Sep 24-Sep 29-Sep#6Southwest Monsoon Rainfall, 2021 RAINFALL STATISTICS - MONSOON 2021 JUNE 2021 REGION 1- Jun TO 30-Jun ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP COUNTRY AS A WHOLE 182.9 166.9 9.6 NORTHWEST INDIA 85.7 75.3 13.9 JULY 2021 REGION COUNTRY AS A WHOLE NORTHWEST INDIA 1-Jul TO ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP 31-Jul 266.0 285.3 -6.8 196.8 212.2 -7.3 EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA 357.3 347.1 2.9 CENTRAL INDIA 198.8 169.2 17.5 EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA CENTRAL INDIA 320.6 432.0 -25.8 298.9 322.8 -7.4 SOUTH PENINSULA 166.2 160.2 3.7 SOUTH PENINSULA 273.8 216.7 26.3 AUGUST 2021 1-Aug TO 31-Aug REGION ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP SEPTEMBER 2021 REGION 1-Sep TO 30-Sep ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP COUNTRY AS A WHOLE 196.2 258.2 -24.0 COUNTRY AS A WHOLE 229.7 170.2 35.0 NORTHWEST INDIA 140.6 202.7 -30.6 NORTHWEST INDIA 152.8 109.2 39.9 EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA 354.6 346.0 2.5 CENTRAL INDIA 188.3 307.3 -38.7 EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA CENTRAL INDIA 214.1 285.2 -24.9 327.7 177.2 84.9 SOUTH PENINSULA 168.2 189.2 -11.1 SOUTH PENINSULA 194.7 160.0 21.7 CUMULATIVE SEASONAL RAINFALL 1-Jun TO 30-Sep REGION ACTUAL NORMAL % DEP COUNTRY AS A WHOLE 874.6 880.6 -0.7 NORTHWEST INDIA EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA 575.9 1246.2 599.5 -3.9 NORTHWEST INDIA EAST & NORTHEAST INDIA 1410.4 -11.6 CENTRAL INDIA SOUTH PENINSULA 1012.5 976.6 804.2 726.2 3.7 CENTRALS INDIA 10.7 (Based on real time data) SOUTH PENINSULAR INDIAS FOUR HOMOGENEOUS REGIONS OF INDIA भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT#7June भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 50.2 (30) 1377h 1377 (0 Whya Pradesh Monthly Rainfall during Southwest Monsoon Season 2021 July August भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग जब मौसम विज्ञान प्रभाग, नई दिल्ली भारत मौसम विज्ञान विज्ञान जल मौसम विज्ञान प्रभाग, नई दिल्ली जन मौसम विज्ञान प्रभाग, नई दिल्ली INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT HYDROMET DIVISION, NEW DELHI INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT HYDROMET DIVISION, NEW DELHI HYDROMET DIVISION, NEW DELHI SUBDIVISION RAINFALL MAP Period 01-07-2021 TO 31-07-202 SUBDIVISION RAINFALL MAP Period: 01-08-2021 To 31-08-2021 SUBDIVISION RAINFALL MAP Period: 01-08-2021 To 30-08-2021 201 Umar Praseel 1988 (44) Ohhamagam 203.6 (10) 181.3171 10675301 217.7 130.0 Kantenata 170 Telangana ALL INDIA Aulual Normal D Dep 182.9 1669 10 CATEGORYWISE NO. OF SUBDIVISIONS LARGE EXGEN LXCL 464 acu Man and Mete Pucu. and Kara NORMAL 01.2 160.0 (62) DEFICIENT LARGE DEFICIENT NUKAIN 13 12 A A and Nisiand Legend Large Excess (60% or more Excess 20% to 50% Normal -19% to 10% Oficient -50% -20% Large Deficient -49% to -40% No Duin NOTES at RainFall figures are based on operation data. b) Small figures indicate actual rainfal (mm), while bold figures indicate Normal rainfall (mm). Percentage Departure of rainfall are shown in brackers Legend 29.7 (211) 2123 (4 $71.96- 371819 51940 (-11) E. Ragascha 238.8 5 250.011) W. Mae Prae Pradech Elarity 23201 200 e. Utar Pradesh S 331 7 2 G 28371-4 249713 290.029 $85.7 (57) 14241 342 Konkan9490580 NRK 1564 183 Co 322013) ALL INDIA Actual Normal Dep 256.0 285.3 CATEGORYYYISE NO. OF SUBDIVISIONS 2133 LARGE-XCESS 3 EXCESS 57761245175 720.1 Kendal Pade and Macall NORMAL 10 723 1565(-47) DEFICIENT 13 LARGE DEFICIENT NORAIN 0 Large Excess [60% or more] Excess [20% to 8%] Normal 18% to 18] Deficient [-69% to 20%] Large Deficient-too-1005] NOTES a) Rainfall figures are based on operation data. b) Small figures indicate actual rainfall (mm), while bold figures indicate Normal rainfall (mm) e) Parent Departures of rainfall are when in 741-60) Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh 38-3(-56) W.Rajasthan 236.7 (7) Raasthas 222.2 83.7 (-72 Saughtra and Kutch Legend Konkanen 760 2687 2604 (-1) EUttar Pradesh 207343) Midhya Py 0662 174 8 (43) 168(-4) Karnataka 1928 (-15) Telangan Coas 148.4 178.0 (4) 328.7 (15) 2062 harking258.0 (-18) (44) 346.4 41763) and Meghalaya September भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 5/28 (47) rachal Pradesh & 483(20) (130) 1712 9 जल मौसम विज्ञान प्रभाग, नई दिल्ली HYDROMET DIVISION, NEW DELHI SUBDIVISION RAINFALL MAP Period: 01-09-2021 To 30-09-2021 213.1419 127.5-12) 1999 (7) 2152 3244.8 (52) 1613 3102 (8) ALL INDIA Actual Normal % Dep in.c -24 CATEGORYWISE NO. OF SUBDIVISIONS LARGE EXCESS 0 EXCESS 416.3) Karla and Maha 4267 88 D (4) Pudu and K NORMAL 14 928 319.5 (43) DEFICIENT 308 5 (24) 15 A and Nislend Lekstadwerp 310.3 LARGE DEFICIENT NORAIN Large Excess [60% or more] Excess [20% to 59%] Normal [-19% to 19%] Deficient [-69% to -20%] Large Deficient [99% to -40% No Rain (-100%] No Data NOTES a) RainFall figures are based on operation data. b) Small figures indicate actual rainfal(mm), while bold figures indicate Normal rainfall (mm). c) Percentage Departures of rainfall are shown in brackets. भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT Legend Case TOLE 2153 2570 (10) ALL INDIA Actual Normal % Dep 229.9 1702 35 1325 (8) 144.5 B Map CATEGORYWISE NO. OF SUBDIVISIONS LARGE EXCESS EXCESS 389 NORMAL 2595 7.113 DEFICIENT LARGE DEFICIENT NORAIN 0 57.3 (56) A and island 8 Large Excace (80% or merce% to 1% Deficient -40% to 20% Large Deficient to 100 No Data NOTES Rain Fall figures are based on operation data bi Smal figures indicate actual saintal (mm), while bold figures indicate Normal rainfall (mm). c) Percentage Departures of rainfall are shown in brackets.#8Heavy Rainfall Events occurred during Monsoon Season 2021 Location of Heavy Rainfall events Location of Extremely Heavy Rainfall events 32°N 24°N 16°N 8°N 72°E 80°E 88°E VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS JJAS 2021 (115.6 mm - 204.4 mm) 0 250 500 km 96°E 32°N 32°N 24°N 24°N 72°E 80°E 88°E EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS JJAS 2021 0 250 500 km 96°E 32°N 24°N 16°N 16°N JUNE 16°N JUNE JULY JULY ○ AUGUST ○ SEPTEMBER 72°E 80°E 88°E 8°N 96°E 8°N AUGUST 0 SEPTEMBER 72°E 80°E 88°E भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 8°N 96°E#9Total PLS Days Long period Average of Total no of LPS Synoptic Scale systems (Lows, Depression and Cyclonic Storm) 50° 55° 60° 65° 70° 75° 80° 85° 90° 95° 100° Category CS DD WML - Cyclone Warning Division (CWD). New Delhi - Weather Forecasting Development Division, Pune L Total LPS systems OA. C. W. C. with D. W. R. Station OA. C. W. C. with C. D. R. Station 35° 30° 25° 20° 15° 10° 5° OC. W. C. Station 0 50° 55° Low pressure area June to Sept.2021 Low Pressure Area O Position at 0300 UTC Position of Dissipation Position at 1200 UTC Same position at different UTCS 35° June* 1Augo DLH 310) 10 Sept 30 July Aug 24 Sept. 3 AHM 12 July 60° 65° BMBO PNE WFDD MDS 00: D 0000 20 Sept. CAL 221927 Jul 22 Jul 11 July C46-Aug. Sept 13 June 24 Sept.) کے 0 O O D 0 2 0 0 2 2 /Days 3 11 12 3 14 August 0 0 0 0 2 2 13 4 17 July 30° 1 25° Sept. 0 2 - 29 3 15 Total 1 1 0 4 7 13 62 13 57 20° 15° 10° 0° 95° 100° DX नासम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 70° 75° 80° 85° 90°#1030.0 N Depression and Cyclonic Storm TRACKS OF INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORMED DURING THE MONSOON SEASON 2021 25.0 20.0 1. TRACK OF DEEP DEPRESSION (12-15 SEP) 2. TRACK OF CYCLONIC STORM "GULAB" (24-28 SEP) • 149 (0) 13/9,002(DD) 249,122 129.0 25/9,212(00) 28/9(0) 2718/D) 2719 259 25/900Z/ 25/9,12Z CS Table: Number of Low pressure System(LPS) including Low(L), Well Marked Low(WML), Depression(D), Deep Depression(DD), Cyclonic Storm(CS) and number of LPS days in monsoon 2021 and their normal Category CS DD D WML L Total LPS systems Total PLS Days Long period Average of Total no of LPS /Days June* 0 0 0 0 2 2 8 3 11 15.0 10.0 5.0 July 0 0 0 2 2 August 0 0 O 12 3 14 2 2 13 4 17 Sept. 1 1 0 2 1 5 29 3 15 0.0 Total 1 1 0 4 7 13 62 13 57 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 E 100. DEPRESSION/DEEP DEPRESSION EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM CYCLONIC STORM SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM SUPER CYCLONIC STORM POINT OF DISSIPATION POSITION AT 0300/1200 UTC SAME POSITION AT DIFFERENT UTCS भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT#11JAMMU & KASHMIR LIGHTNING 1 PERSON DIED (25 JUNE) MAHARASHTRA HEAVY RAIN 11 PEOPLE DIED (9 JUNE) LIGHTNING 7 PEOPLE DIED (3,6,9,29 JUNE) 32°N 24°N 16°N 8°N 72°E 72°E 80°E Map Significant Weather Events 88°E DISASTER WEATHER EVENTS (JUNE 2021) 96°E 72°E 80°E 88°E DISASTER WEATHER EVENTS (JUL 2021) 80°E 88°E S> 96°E FLOODS/ HEAVY RAIN SNOWFALL SQUALL THUNDERSTORM/ LIGHTNING COLD WAVE DUSTSTORM/ SANDSTORM 32°N 24°N 16°N BIHAR LIGHTNING 47 PEOPLE DIED (23,24,26,28 JUNE) WEST BENGAL LIGHTNING 40 PEOPLE DIED (5,7,8,10,13 JUNE) TAMILNADU LIGHTNING 3 PEOPLE DIED (6 JUNE) JAMMU & KASHMIR HEAVY RAIN 8 PEOPLE DIED (28 JULY) RAJASTHAN LIGHTNING 29 PEOPLE DIED. (11,14 JULY) MADHYA PRADESH LIGHTNING 25 PEOPLE DIED (11,12,13,23,24 GUJARAT LIGHTNING 1 PERSON DIED (10 JULY) MAHARASHTRA HEAVY RAIN 131 PEOPLE DIED (9, 11-26 JULY) LIGHTNING 4 PEOPLE DIED (7,11 JULY) KARNATAKA HEAVY RAIN 9 PEOPLE DIED (22-24 JULY) 32°N 24°N 16°N 8°N 8°N 72°E 80°E 96°E 88°E 96°E FLOODS/ HEAVY RAIN SNOWFALL SQUALL THUNDERSTORM/ LIGHTNING COLD WAVE DUSTSTORM/ SANDSTORM भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 32°N 24°N HIMACHAL PRADESH HEAVY RAIN 30 PEOPLE DIED (12, 27 JULY) UTTARAKHAND HEAVY RAIN 3 PEOPLE DIED (11 JULY) SIKKIM HEAVY RAIN 1 PERSON DIED (31 JULY) 16°N UTTAR PRADESH HEAVY RAIN 3 PEOPLE DIED (19 JULY) LIGHTNING 42 PEOPLE DIED (11 JULY) JHARKHAND LIGHTNING 9 PEOPLE DIED (3,11 JULY) TELANGANA 8°N LIGHTNING 2 PEOPLE DIED (6 JULY)#12HIMACHAL PRADESH HEAVY RAIN 25 PERSONS DIED (11 AUG) MADHYA PRADESH HEAVY RAIN 30 PERSONS DIED (1-7 AUG) 32°N 24°N 16°N 8°N 72°E 72°E 80°E Map Significant Weather Events 88°E SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS (AUG 2021) 80°E 88°E 96°E S 96°E FLOODS/ HVY RAIN SNOWFALL SQUALL THUNDERSTORM/ LIGHTNING COLD WAVE DUSTSTORM/ SANDSTORM 32°N 24°N UTTAR PRADESH HEAVY RAIN 9 PERSONS DIED (1-9 AUG) BIHAR HEAVY RAIN 12 PERSONS DIED (7-17 AUG) LIGHTNING 7 PERSONS DIED (7 AUG) WEST BENGAL HEAVY RAIN 15 PERSONS DIED (2,3 AUG) LIGHTNING 7 PERSONS DIED (2,7 AUG) JHARKHAND LIGHTNING 32°N 24°N 10 PERSONS DIED 16°N 16°N (2,7 AUG) ODISHA LIGHTNING 5 PERSONS DIED (7 AUG) 8°N TAMIL NADU LIGHTNING 1 PERSON DIED (20 AUG) 8°N 72°E 72°E 80°E 88°E SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS (SEP2021) 80°E 88°E FLOODS/ SNOWFALL SQUALL THUNDERSTORM/ HVY RAIN LIGHTNING COLD WAVE THUNDER- STORM भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 96°E S> 96°E DUSTSTORM/ SANDSTORM 32°N 24°N 16°N 8°N#13Region Verification of LRF Period Actual Rainfall Forecast (% of LPA) (% of LPA) All India June to September All India Northwest India Central India Northeast India South Peninsula June to September June to September June to September June to September June to September Monsoon Core Zone All India June to September July(issued on 1st July) All India August & Aug-Sept (issued on 2nd Aug) September (issued on All India 1st Sept) (issued on 16th April) Normal (96-104% of LPA) 98± 5 of LPA (issued on 1st June) Normal (96-104% of LPA) 101± 4 of LPA Normal (92-108% of LPA) Above Normal (>106% of LPA) Below Normal (<95% of LPA) Normal (93-107% of LPA) Above Normal (>106% of LPA) July: Normal (94-106% of LPA) August: Normal (94-106% of LPA) Aug+Sept: Normal (95-105% of LPA) Above Normal (>110% of LPA) भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 99 99 96 104 88 111 107 93 76 99 135#14Verification of September month rainfall forecast Observed Rainfall Category (Sep 2021) Observed Rainfall Category (Clim 2003 to 2020) Year 2021 (SEP) Rainfall forecast for September Month 40°N (issued on 1st September 2021) probability rainfall forecast for 2021 SEP 30°N 20°N 10°N 35°N Above Normal 30°N 25°N Normal 20°N I 70°E BO E Balow Normal 90°E 100°E 15°N 10°N Below Normal 35 45 55 65 75 Normal 35 45 55 65 75 Above Normal 35 45 55 65 75 White color over land area indicates Climatological probability 65°E 70°E 75°E 80°E 85°E 90°E 95°E 100°E Above normal rainfall over many parts of central India, West and eastern coastal India and normal to above normal rainfall over many parts of southeast India, eastern central India, Below normal rainfall over the extreme north India and some parts of north-east India were correctly predicted. However, the below normal rainfall observed over some parts of central peninsular India could not be predicted. भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT#15Verification of JJAS Seasonal rainfall forecast Observed Rainfall Category (JJAS 2021) Observed Rainfall Category (Clim 1982 to 2010) Year 2021 (JJAS) Rainfall forecast for JJAS Season (issued on 1st June 2021) probability rainfall forecast for 2021 JJAS 40°N 30°N 20°N 10°N Abova Normal 35°N 30°N 25°N Normal 20°N Below Normal 70°E BO°E 90°E 100°E 15°N 10°N Below Normal 35 45 55 65 75 Normal 35 45 55 65 75 35 45 55 65 75 Above Normal 65°E 70°E 75°E 80°E 85°E 90°E 95°E 100°E Above normal rainfall observed over many parts of North India, Central India and Eastern coastal India were very much matching with the forecast. Similarly, below normal rainfall observed over the extreme north India, some parts of North East India also as per the issued forecast. However, the observed below normal rainfall over some parts of north-west India and central and adjoining east India could not be predicted. भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT#16Other factors responsible for August Rainfall Deficiency MJO Phase diagram: August 2021 Negative Indian Ocean Dipole unfavorable for Indian monsoon prevailed ➤ Absence of formation of monsoon depression. Normally two monsoon depression forms in the month of August. ➤ Less number of low pressure area formed over Bay of Bengal. Two against 4 formed during (16-18 & 28-30 Aug.) Unfavorable MJO conditions over Indian Ocean: During most of the days MJO was in the phase 8, 1 and 2 which are unfavorable for monsoon rainfall activity. ➤ Less West Pacific Typhoon activity. Remnants of westward moving typhoons help to form LPS over Bay of Bengal. RMM2 3 (RMM1, RMM2) phase space for 19-Jul-2021 to 27-Aug-2021 West. Hem. CO and Africa 1 T T 7 Western Pacific 6 2 START Indian 3 Ocean T L -4 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 RMM1 Labelled dots for each day. Blue line is for Aug. green line is for Jul. red line is for Jun. 5 Continent Maritime West Pacific Typhoons - 2021 50°N 40°N 30°N 100°E 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E 170°E 180°E .. 20°N 10°N भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 0° 50°N 40°N 30°N 20°N 10°N 0° 100°E 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E 170°E 180°E#17Factors responsible for Excess September Rainfall MJO Phase diagram: September 2021 Sept 2021 had 2nd Highest for 1994-2021(28 years) after 2019(+52%) ➤ Weakening of Negative Indian Ocean Dipole during September ➤ Formation of monsoon depression and one system intensified in to Cyclonic Storm. ➤ Favorable MJO conditions over Indian Ocean: During most of the days MJO was in the phase 3, 4 and 5 which are favorable for monsoon rainfall activity. ➤ More West Pacific Typhoon activity and the Remnants of westward moving typhoons help to form LPS over Bay of Bengal. RMM2 3 (RMM1, RMM2] phase space for 20-Aug-2021 to 28-Sep-2021 2 8 West. Hem. and Africa 1 -2 T ry Western Pacific 6 5 Continent Maritime. 2 Indian Ocean 3 L -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 RMM1 Labelled dots for each day. Blue line is for Sep, green line is for Aug, red line is for Jul. West Pacific Typhoons - 2021 50°N 40°N 100°E 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E 170°E 180°E .. 50°N 40°N 30°N 20°N 10°N भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 0° 30°N 20°N 10°N 0° 100°E 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E 170°E 180°E#18Probabilistic forecast of rainfall for October and (Oct-Dec. 2021) probability rainfall forecast for 2021 OCT probability rainfall forecast for 2021 OND 40°N 35°N 30°N 25°N 20°N 15°N 10°N Below Normal 35 45 55 65 75 40°N Normal 35 45 55 65 75 35°N Above Normal 35 45 55 65 75 White color over land area indicates Climatological probability 30°N 25°N 20°N 15°N 10°N Below Normal 35 45 55 65 75 Normal 35 45 55 65 75 Above Normal 35 45 55 65 75 Dotted area receives climatologically less rainfall during the season White color over land area indicates Climatological probability 65°E 70°E 75°E 80°E 85°E 90°E 95°E 100°E 65°E 70°E 75°E 80°E 85°E 90°E 95°E 100°E 30-Sep-21 भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT#19Extended Range Forecast of rainfall during 1-28 October 2021 NCMRWF CNCUM Extended Range Forecasts-20210930 (Week1: 010CT-070CT) Precipitation Anomaly (mm/day) (Week2: 08OCT-140CT) Forecast Rainfall Anomaly (mm/day) (Week2: 080ct-140ct) 35°N 25°N 15°N NCMRTT 5°N 60°E 35°N 25°N 15 N 35°N -25°N 15°N NCMRTIF 5°N 80°E 100°E 60°E (Week3: 150CT-210CT) 35°N 25°N 15°N (Week4: 2200T-280CT) NCMRTF NCMKTT 5°N 5°N 60°E 80°E 100°E 60°E (Week1: 01 Oct-070ct) 35N 35N 30N 30N 25N 25N 20 20N 20N 15 15N- 15N 10 10N 5 5N 70E 77E 84E 91E 98E 10N 5N- 70E 77E 84E 91E 98E N (Week3: 150ct-21 Oct) (Week4: 220ct-280ct) 80°E 100°E -2 35N 35N -5 30N 30N 80°E 100°E -10 25N 20N -15 15N -20 10N 5N 5N 70E 77E 84E 91E 98E 70E 77E 84E 91E 98E -20-15-10 -5 -2 N сл 5 10 15 20 25N 20N 15N 10N INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT#20Today 30/09/2021 Multi-Hazard Early Warning for 30 Sep. to 4 Oct. 2021 Tomorrow 01/10/2021 02/10/2021 03/10/2021 04/10/2021 भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT#21भारत मौसम सत्यमेव करते विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOR METEOROLOGI आदित्यात् OLOGICAL LNEW LOVE 3G जाय वृष्टिः Thank you भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT