#1Side event on presentation of second and/or third national communications of Mexico, Republic of Korea and Uruguay CADOS Third and Fourth National Communications from México UNIDOS MEXICAN SEMARNAT ne Institucional de Ecol COP16 CMP6 Mexico2010 United Nations Create Change Conference municación Nac Convención Moco Naciones Unites Cambio Climatic ANTE EA DE LAS NACIONES EN REE FL CAMRID EMA JULIA MARTINEZ FERNANDEZ Coordinator of the Climate Change Program National Institute of Ecology TRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES Saturday 4 December 2010 13:20 14:40 - Room Pitaya Cancun, Mexico México CAMEO CLIMATIco Vivir Mejor#2National Communication of Mexico to the UNFCCC ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN 1997 2001 2006 2009 MÉXICO PRIMERA CON UN CANCIOLATE LA COMBOXMWR) DE LAS MACIONES UNIDAS SOBRE EL CL NACION RATE LA México CAMBI CUMATICO The First National Communication of Mexico to the UNFCCC release in 1997, included the first Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 1990, and the results of the first studies on the country's vulnerability to climate change. The Second National Communication, released in 2001, included the updating of the Emissions Inventory for the 1994- 1998 period, and scenarios for future emissions. Both were carried out with funding from the Mexican Government. The Third National Communication presented an update of the Inventory to 2002, and recalculated the figures since 1990. To that end it counted with funding from the Global Environment Facility (GEF ) through the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the Mexican government. The Fourth National Communication of Mexico to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC ) reports the progress in climate change made by the country, after the 2006 publication of the Third Communication. SEMARNAT ne Institucional de Ecologia Vivir Mejor#3Mexico's Fourth National Communication I. National context II. National GHG Inventory III. Institutional arrangements IV. Adaptation programs (impacts, V. vulnerability and adaptation) Climate change mitigation programs VI. Relevant information VII. Barriers, limitations and needs related to climate change México CUARTA COMUNICACIÓN NACIONAL ANTE LA CONVENCIÓN MARCO DE LAS NACIONES UNIDAS SOBRE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN SEMARNAT ne Institut Nacional de Ecol Vivir Mejor#4Land use, land use change & Forestry 9.9% Waste 14.1% Agriculturel 6.4% Industrial processes 9.0% National GHG Inventory, 2006 Energy Industry 21.0% Energy 61% Transportation 20.4% 709 million tonnes of CO2eq ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN SEMARNAT ne Institucional de Ecol Manufacturing and construction 8.0% Residential, commercial and agricultural 4.5% Fugitive emissions 6.7% Vivir Mejor#5ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN • • National GHG Inventory, 2006 Mexico's GHG emissions (in CO2e) grew 40.3% from 1990 to 2006. "Energy" prevails as the main source of emissions of GHG in Mexico, with the greatest part deriving from fossil fuel use in energy generation and transportation. Improvements in energy efficiency and investments aiming at the use of cleaner technologies have improved the energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP) and emissions intensity (CO2 per unit of GDP) between 1990 and 2006. The GHG emissions growth rate in Mexico is lower than the growth rate of its economy. The results of the National GHG Inventory 1990-2006 show that there is evidence of decoupling of economic growth and GHG emissions in Mexico. SEMARNAT ne Institucional de Ecol Vivir Mejor#6Temperatura (C) Observed temperature a). Comportamiento observado de la temperatura media anual del promedio nacional durante el periodo de 1971 a 2008. 21.0 21.5 214 21.3 212 21.2 21.1 #10 21.0 20 2018 20.7 20.6 20.5 30.4 203 101 21.3 Madia storica 20.9 C 1970 1972 1974 1970 1975 1000 1982 1984 1980 1988 1990 1002 1004 1900 1900 2000 2002 2004 2004 2000 2010. Año ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN ne Institut Nacional de Ecol Instrumental observations over the last SEMARNAT 38 years show that the annual average temperature has risen 0.6 C in average in the Mexican territory over this period. The historical average temperature of the period is 20.9 C, with the observations after 1990 being all above this average. Over the last 10 years, the trend indicates an intensive warming of 0.7 C. Standardized precipitation index Drought could intensify in the Central region, Jalisco region and Chiapas region. Under the A2 scenario, it would be worse than that experienced in the fifties and seventies for the first two regions. In general, meteorological drought leads to hydrological drought, as well as reductions in precipitation; increases in temperature would increase evapo-transpiration. Unidades de 1 IPE -$ .7 Variación de la Precipitación Anual Región Centro, Escenario AZ Ало Vivir Mejor#7Sea level rise in Mexico Sea level rise would affect human and natural coastal systems, due to lowland flooding, saline intrusion, and a greater risk of storm surge, increased by a possible change in frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events like hurricanes or “Nortes", among other. Historical Trends ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN SEMARNAT ne Institucional de Ecol Sea level rise has been observed in four sites that have been studied in the Gulf of Mexico. It ranges from 1.89 mm/year in Veracruz, Veracruz, up to 9.16 mm/year in Cd. Madero, Tamaulipas. For the Pacific, the site with the smallest increase was Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, with 1.13 mm/year; and the greatest was observed in Guaymas, Sonora, with 4.23 mm/year. Vivir Mejor#8Water availability impact A2 2050 A2 2020 Moderado Fuerte Extremo Índice de vulnerabilidad A2 2080s Vulnerability index reflecting water availability and quality for the A2 GHG emissions scenario for decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN SEMARNAT ne Institucional de Ecol Vivir Mejor#9Climate change impacts Agriculture Losses in agriculture would increase significantly as a consequence of higher temperatures and less water availability. Fisheries Climate change would affect ocean currents, stratification of the water column in the ocean and the upwelling of productive water. Forest fires Considering El Niño conditions as indicative of expected conditions under climate change, the cost of forest fires would be as high as US$ 1.5 billion per year. Mammals By mid-century, 30 of the 61 species of mammals analyzed would lose 50% or more of their current distribution area. Health With a 2°C temperature increase, losses from disease (malaria, dengue fever and gastrointestinal disease) are estimated at US$15 billion annually. ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN SEMARNAT ne Institucional de Ecol Vivir Mejor#10Mitigation ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN SEMARNAT □ Mexico acknowledges the importance of undertaking actions that contribute to the efforts of the international community to mitigate GHG emissions. ☐ The Mexican Government put into force the Special Program on Climate Change (PECC 2009-2012). ☐ Compliance to PECC at the end of the current administration will result in a reduction of 50 million tonnes of CO₂e in 2012. In a long-term vision, PECC establishes, as an aspirational goal, the reduction of 50% of national GHG emissions by 2050, as compared to 2000 levels, and a flexible convergence towards a global per capita emissions average of 2.8 tonnes of CO2e in 2050. ne Institucional de Ecol GOBIERNO FEDERAL Programa Especial SEMARNAT de Cambio Climático SEDESOL 2008-2012 SACARPA SENTR SRE SCT SE Vivir Mejor#11ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN Mitigation in the energy sector ☐ With the implementation of various energy saving programs in industrial, commercial and public services, a saving of 15.7 million barrels of oil equivalent was obtained during the 2006-2008 period, preventing the emission of 8.6 million tons of CO2e. ☐ With the Daylight Savings Program, emissions decreased by 4.5 million. tons of CO2. ☐ In 2008, a total of 18 Mexican Official Standards (NOMs) was put in place, 16 of which are associated with electricity consumption and two with thermal processes. ☐ With the first 16 standards, savings equivalent to 15,775 GWh were obtained, and emissions of 12.8 million tonnes of CO2e were avoided. ☐ Similarly, with the implementation of thermal efficiency standards, savings of 6 million barrels of oil equivalent, representing a consumption of 35.16 PJ, were achieved, and 1.97 million tonnes of CO2e were not emitted. ☐ Preliminary figures for the first half of 2009 show that, as a result of energy efficiency measures, savings of 12,558 GWh, equivalent to 10.2 million tons of CO2 are expected. SEMARNAT ne Institucional de Ecol Vivir Mejor#12Mitigation in the residential sector ☐ According to the goals set by the Mexican Government, between 2007 and ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN SEMARNAT 2012, six million housing mortgages will be granted, of which approximately he 20% should be used for sustainable housing. ☐ The Alliance to Save Energy (ASE) granted the "International Award for Energy Saving in Sustainable Housing," to the Mexican Government, for its efforts on this regard. The award was received by the President of Mexico, Mr. Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, on September 23, 2009. Mitigation in the forestry sector In the Special Program on Climate Change 2009-2012 (PECC) mitigation in the forestry sector is focused mainly on: the incorporation of about 3 million hectares to sustainable forest management; ☐ the installation of 600,000 efficient wood stoves; and ☐ the addition of 750,000 hectares of forest ecosystems to the status of Protected Natural Areas. Institucional de Ecol Vivir Mejor#13Emissions Scenarios of GHG for 2020, 2050 and 2070 In 2009, INE financed and coordinated the “Study on the Impact of Renewable ESTADOS UNIDOS NEXICAN SEMARNAT Energy Sources of GHG Emissions in Mexico in the Medium and Long Terms", ne carried out by the Electric Power Research Institute and the study "GHG Emissions Scenarios in the Medium and Long Terms, 2020, 2050 and 2070", prepared by the Mexican Institute of Petroleum. These studies will be useful to estimate the national baseline of GHG emissions for the medium (2020) and long (2050) terms. Other relevant studies on mitigation published in the last two years are: MEXICO a) Study on the Economics of Climate Change in Mexico, coordinated by SEMARNAT and the Ministry of Finance, with financial support from the UK Government and the Inter-American Development Bank; b) Low-Carbon Growth. A potential Path for Mexico, conducted by the Mario Molina Center and the McKinsey consulting firm; c) Low-Carbon Development for Mexico (MEDEC ), developed with funding and technical assistance of: The World Bank; d) Climate Change in Mexico and Potential Emission Reduction by Sectors, conducted by a consultant. Institute Racional de Ecolegia Vivir Mejor#14ESTADOS UNIDOS NEXICAN Projects under the Clean Development Mechanism ☐ From September 2008 to August 2009, Mexico obtained the registration of 12 projects by the CDM Executive Board. ☐ This brought the total number of registered projects to 118, of which 20 received Certified Emission Reductions (CERS). ☐ The mitigated and CDM registered tonnes of CO2e increased 53%, going from 3.8 to 5.8 million tonnes cumulatively. ☐ In the same period, the CICC granted letters of approval to 22 projects, with which the cumulative number amounted to 217 (by August 2009). ☐ Mexico participates with 7% of the global CDM projects: ➤ 4th place for the amount of registered projects ➤ 5th for the expected volume of CERS ➤ 5th country in terms of CERS obtained SEMARNAT ne Institucional de Ecologia Vivir Mejor#15ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN State Programs for Climate Change Action (PEACC) SEMARNAT Institut Nacional de Ecol Since 2007, technical specialists and scientists from most of the 32 Mexican he States began training for the preparation of their State Programs for Climate Change Action (PEACC): Geite de California Indicador del estad PLACC in Sön: PEACO PEACC and Ocean Pacifica MOSIER . . . The PEACC are part of the development and planning policy instruments at the state level. They constitute a rational response to the adverse effects of climate change at the local/state level. They contain the basis for policymaking at the local level on climate change and sustainable development. Their purpose is to gather information, and to analyze and design courses of action that can be applied locally in response to climate change. www.ine.gob.mx/peacc Vivir Mejor#16Future Actions ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN SEMARNAT • The research needs identified after several diagnostic exercises are grouped into five categories: 1) national inventory of emissions of greenhouse gases, 2) monitoring, reporting and scenarios, 3) impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, 4) mitigation of greenhouse gases, and 5) economic, legal and international studies. In order to improve the next inventories it is necessary to continue conducting research to determine national emission factors for key sources, and to analyze in depth the differences between the reference and the sectorial approach. • On the other hand, it is necessary to look deeper into observation activities; to continue building and refining models under different climate change scenarios; as well as to continue putting together and publishing various risk atlas; one would be the first National Atlas of Vulnerability to Climate Change, and to continue with diverse mapping, for example, mapping for morbidity and mortality associated with increased health risks due to climate change. ne Institute Racional de Ecolegia Vivir Mejor#17Future Actions ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN • • ● For a more efficient management of mitigation options in the Country, it is necessary to continue a more in depth evaluation of the mitigation potential of various technology options, for key emitting sectors. Furthermore, it becomes necessary to develop emissions mitigation. frameworks to measure, report and verify them in strategic sectors, particularly the definition of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAS). The need for better estimates on the potential economic and financial costs of climate change impacts in key productive sectors has also become evident. Likewise, it is important to analyze the social, economic and environmental impacts derived from the fulfillment of Mexico's international responsabilities on climate change, both present and future. SEMARNAT ne Institucional de Ecol Vivir Mejor#18UNFCCC COP16 CMP6 Mexica2010 Thank you for your attention México. Cuarta Comunicación Nacional ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático (Only in Spanish): http://www2.ine.gob.mx/publicaciones/download/615.pdf http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/mexnc4s.pdf ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICAN SEMARNAT ne Institucional de Ecol Vivir Mejor