#1RECTE SAPERE FONS NATIONAL TRANSFER ACCOUNTS Understanding the generational economy THE CONTRIBUTION OF KADUNA STATE TO CREATING AND HARNESSING DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN NIGERIA: AN APPLICATION OF SUB-COUNTRY NATIONAL TRANSFER ACCOUNTS (NTA) APPROACH Olanrewaju Olaniyan Akanni O. Lawanson Noah Olasehinde Stephen Dauda Yusuf Auta Presented at the 2020 NTA Virtual Conference August 2020#2UNFPA RECIL S SAPERS FORS Introduction Nigeria, with a population of over 200 million, is the black most populous country in the world, and 7th globally. • A federation of 36 States and Federal Capital territory sub-categorized into six geopolitical zones: (North Central, North East, North West, South East, South South, & South West) Kaduna is one of the seven States in the North West zone • Kaduna has a population of about 8.4 million, representing 4.6% of Nigerian population#3● . RECIE SAPERE FORS Introduction Population growth rate of 3.2 % Projected to reach 12.96 million by 2030 • About 46.1% and 80% of population are below 15 years and below 35 years, respectively High TFR of 5.9% compared to national average of 5.3% • Low contraceptive use of 13 percent of women aged 15-49 years UNFPA#4RECTE 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 SAPERE FORS of Kaduna State, 1950-2100 Projected Population Age Structure 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1077 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2015 2016 2019 0-14 ■15-24 2022 2025 25-59 60 and above 2028 2026 2031 2034 2037 2040 2040 2043 2012 2046 2016 2049 2052 2055 2058 2061 2064 2067 2070 2073 2076 2079 2082 2085 2088 2091 2094 2097 2100 UNFPA#5RECTE SAPER FON S >85 Population Pyramids of Kaduna State (1950-2100) 1950 2000 Male Female >85 Male Female UNFPA 80-84 80-84 || 75-79 || 75-79 II 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8#6ཞག་ SAPERE FONS Population Pyramids of Kaduna..UNFPA 2050 State (1950-2100) RECTE 2100 Male Female >85 Male Female 80-84 >85 80-84 75-79 70-74 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2#7RECTE SAPERE FONS Methodology ..UNFPA • NTA Approach ● ● Lifecycle deficit as addition of asset-based reallocation, net public transfer and net private transfers. Data: - The State GDP and actual budget expenditure for 2017 – Kaduna Population figure by age distribution. - - National household survey data Data Source - obtained from the Kaduna State Bureau of Statistics. - National Bureau of Statistics.#8RECIE SAPER FONS Results: Economic Lifecycle UNFPA Deficit in Kaduna State consumption expenditures are greater than labour income at: - - ages 0-35 years old (youth dependency), ages above 58 years old (old age dependents). Surplus only between ages 36 to 58 years, Lifecycle surplus length period of 23 years. Lifecycle deficit: Youth: 1.41 trillion Naira Elderly: 42.85 billion Naira Surplus generated: Around 72.21 billion. Total State Lifecycle deficit: #1.38 trillion Naira.#9RECTE SAPERE FONS 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Age Profile of Per Capita Labour Income and Consumption in Kaduna State, 2017 Figure 5: Age Profile of Per Capita Labour Income and Consumption in Kaduna State, 2017 0 5 10 15 20 20 25 30 555 35 40 45 50 Labor Income 55 55 -Consumption 60 60 65 70 75 80 85 85 90+ UNFPA#10RECIL S SAPERE 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 UNFPA Age Profile of Aggregate Lifecycle Deficit for Kaduna State, 2017 (Million ... Naira) Figure 6: Age Profile of Aggregate Lifecycle Deficit for Kaduna State, 2017 (million naira) 20,000 10,000 0 0 5 10 15 20 20 -10,000 25 30 35 45 55 60 65 70 70 75 75 80 80 85 90+#110.00 1950 1.00 1960 Growth rate 2.00 1970 3.00 1980 1990 4.00 2000 5.00 2010 RECIE S ཉས་ SAPER FOILS Results: Growth Rates of Effective Producers and Effective Consumers in Kaduna State, 1950-2100 Figure 7: Growth Rates of Effective Producers and Effective Consumers in Kaduna State, 1950- 2100 2040 Growth rate of effective number of workers, 2.61 Growth rate of effective number of consumers 2.06 2070 2100 UNFPA#120.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 RECIE 0.65 SAPER 0.70 FONS Figure 8: Support Ratio, Kaduna State, 1950-2100 Kaduna State, 1950 – 2100 Results: Support Ratio in 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 2052 2055 2058 2061 2064 2067 2070 2073 2076 2079 2082 2085 2088 2091 2094 2097 2100 UNFPA#13RECTE 價 SAPER FONS First Demographic Dividend in UNFPA Kaduna State, 1950 – 2100 - Growth rate of the support ratio turned positive in 1995 Signaling the opening year of the window of economic growth opportunity in Kaduna State. The increasing positive trend to remain till peak year 2051#14Percent RECIES SAPER 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 1950 1955 1960 1965 FONS Profile of First Democratic Dividend, Kaduna State, 1950-2100 Figure 9: Profile of First Democratic Dividend, Kaduna State, 1950-2100 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100#15RECIE SAPER • FOR S First Demographic Dividend in..UNFPA Kaduna State, 1950 - 2100 • Translating the opportunity into economic growth reality requires vigorous implementation of investments in health, education, economy and good governance ● The productivity of young adults depends on: - - - schooling decisions, employment practices, the timing and level of childbearing, and policies that make it easier for young parents to work. Sufficient job opportunities should be created to enlarge the population of effective producers.#16RECIES SAPERE Comparison of Lifecycle Surplus UNFPA in Kaduna State and Nigeria Kaduna Nigeria State Age lifecycle surplus Started 36 29 Age lifecycle surplus Ended 58 62 Length of year for lifecycle surplus 23 33#17SAPER FONS Population and Aggregate Lifecycle Deficits by UNFPA Age Groups in Kaduna State and Nigeria Age Group 0-17 18-35 36-55 56-60 60+ Total RECIE Populati Kaduna 4,558 2,145 1,110 143 253 8,209 on ('000) Nigeria 85,614 54,476 27,099 3,961 8,057 179,207 Kaduna Population as %age of Nigeria's 5.3% 3.9% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1% 4.6% LCD Kaduna 1,029.15 379.84 -64.71 -2.36 33.79 1,375.71 Nigeria, 31,982.89 9,715.23 -9,852.95 -1,336.68 1,351.58 31,860.07 Kaduna LCD as 3.2% 3.9% 0.7% 0.2% 2.5% 4.3% %age of Nigeria's#18Comparison of Kaduna and Nigeria Ratio of YL of 30-49 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 0 2 9 8 Age profile of Per capita Lficecycle Deficit in Nigeria and Kaduna State 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 τε 34 3 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 Nigeria LCD Kaduna LCD 89 99 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 98 88 +06#190.20 124 0.80 Ratio of YL of 30-49 0.40 9 0.60 8 10 14 16 1.00 18 20 22 1.20 24 26 Comparison of Kaduna and Nigeria 1.40 Age profile of Per capita Consumption in Nigeria and Kaduna State Nigeria YL 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 Kaduna YL 89 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90+#20Ratio of YL of 30-49 0.20 о 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 Comparison of Kaduna and Nigeria 1.20 Age profile of Per capita Consumption in Nigeria and Kaduna State 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 Nigeria Csptn Kaduna Csptn 89 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90+#21Ratio of YL of 30-49 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 0246 1.00 8 1.20 10 Comparison of Kaduna and Nigeria 1.40 Age profile of Per capita Consumption and labour income in Nigeria and Kaduna State 14 16 18 20 24 26 28 ⚫Nigeria Csptn 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 Kaduna Csptn Nigeria YL 09 62 64 Kaduna YL 89 99 70 72 74 76 78 80 78 84 88 90+#22Conclusion DD Estimate for Kaduna State is the first sub-national estimate in Nigeria More than 81 per cent of the population under the age of 35 years TFR of 5.9 percent however declining • The Lifecycle Deficit for the State is about 1.38 Trillion Naira (4.3% of National LCD) ● The window of opportunity has opened in the last two and half decades The first DD will reach its peak by 2050 • The lifecycle surplus for the State is only sufficient to offset less than less than 47 per cent of the combined lifecycle deficits from children and elderly.#23• Policy implications Greater effort is required to drastically bring down the total fertility rate - - - Ensure increased uptake of modern contraceptive methods - Discourage early marriage, by keeping children in school Promote girl-child education To reap the DD, human capital development should be given priority place - Greater investment in health - Addressing the out-of-school incidence in the State Job creation should be enhanced through ensuring existence of enabling economic environment. • Stem-down banditry incidence through engagement of youth in productive activities#24THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION