Investor Presentaiton

Made public by

sourced by PitchSend

1 of 40

Creator

PitchSend logo
PitchSend

Category

Pending

Published

Unknown

Slides

Transcriptions

#1Antero Resources INVESTOR PRESENTATION MAY 2023#2Legal Disclaimer This presentation includes "forward-looking statements." Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AR's control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activities, events or developments AR expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, such as those regarding our strategy, future operations, financial position, estimated revenues and losses, projected costs, prospects, plans and objectives of management, return of capital, expected results, future commodity prices, future production targets, realizing potential future fee rebates or reductions, including those related to certain levels of production, leverage targets and debt repayment, future earnings, future capital spending plans, improved and/or increasing capital efficiency, estimated realized natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil prices, expected drilling and development plans, projected well costs and cost savings initiatives, future financial position, future marketing opportunities, the participation level of our drilling partner and the financial and production results to be achieved as a result of the drilling partnership and the key assumptions underlying its projection and AR's environmental goals are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Although AR believes that the plans, intentions and expectations reflected in or suggested by the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there is no assurance that these plans, intentions or expectations will be achieved. Therefore, actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements. Except as required by law, AR expressly disclaims any obligation to and does not intend to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. AR cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties incident to the exploration for and the development, production, gathering and sale of natural gas, NGLs and oil, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond AR's control. These risks include, but are not limited to, commodity price volatility, inflation, supply chain disruption, lack of availability of drilling, completion and production equipment and services, environmental risks, drilling and completion and other operating risks, marketing and transportation risks, regulatory changes and changes in law, the uncertainty inherent in estimating natural gas and oil reserves and in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, impacts of geopolitical events and world health events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, cybersecurity risks, conflicts of interest among our stockholders, the state of markets for and availability of verified carbon offsets and the other risks described under the heading "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in AR's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and AR undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. This presentation also includes AR non-GAAP measures which are financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). Please see "Antero Non-GAAP Measures" for definitions of these measures as well as certain additional information regarding these measures. Antero Resources Corporation is denoted as "AR" in the presentation and Antero Midstream Corporation is denoted as "AM", which are their respective New York Stock Exchange ticker symbols. | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 2#3Antero Resources: The "Unconstrained" E&P Company $ A Scale & Inventory 20+ Years of Premium Inventory Integrated Midstream Development Reliability & Visibility Firm Transport to LNG Fairway & Product Diversity Premier Pricing via Gas Sold to LNG Markets & Liquids Uplift Low Absolute Debt and Leverage Flexibility Allows for Greater Commodity Price Exposure Peer-Low Free Cash Flow Breakeven (1) FCF Generation + Strong Balance Sheet = Stable Cash Returns Photo of Cheat Canyon, WV. Conservation efforts supported by Antero Resources. | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 1) On unhedged basis. See page 10. 3#4Largest Low Cost Inventory in Appalachia Antero Scale & Inventory Summary Scale Top 6 U.S. Natural Gas Producer Top 4 U.S. NGL Producer Sub-$2.00/Mcf Breakeven Locations 1,000 3rd Party Estimates Inventory (Antero Estimates) Premium Core Inventory · 1,500+ Undeveloped Locations Inventory Life ~75 wells drilled per year = 20+ Years of Premium Core Drilling Inventory() 750 500 250 RRC EQT + Tug Hill SWN CHK CNX Source: Enverus Intelligence. 10+ Years of Sub-$2.00/Mcf Breakeven Locations(²) 1) | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) AR internal drilling inventory as of 12/31/22. Industry location count based on Antero technical analysis of undeveloped acreage in the core of the Marcellus and Ohio Utica Shales. 2) Assumes ~75 wells per year drilling program. 4#5Antero Well Performance vs. Peers Antero leads its Appalachian peers in well productivity trends, and importantly, continues to increase its liquids productivity AR Oil & NGLs Cumulative Well Productivity Cumulative Oil and C3+ Production (MBbl) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 20 87% Increase 800 AR Cumulative Well Productivity vs. Peers 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Normalized Cumulative Gas Equivalent (MMcfe/1,000') 700 +20% vs Antero peer avg 600 Since 500 2020 400 I Peer Average (1) 300 200 100 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Days On Line 0 12 Months On Line 18 24 Source: Wellhead production from Enverus public data. Well BTU categorization based on Antero internal BTU mapping data. Processing shrink and NGL yields consistently assigned across all operators based on assigned BTU buckets. Note: Production data cutoff at 24 months. Peers limited to SW Marcellus Operators with a minimum of 120 wells TIL since 2020. Represents cumulative sum of the average rate-time profile. Assumes no processing for wells with less than 1100 BTU (zero C3+ yield). Represents Enverus lateral lengths for peer average and internal lateral lengths for AR data. | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 1) Peers include EQT, RRC and SWN (SW Marcellus wells). 5#6Low Decline Rate Leads to Lower Maintenance Capital (Percent Decline) Antero Decline Rates vs Peers 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 5-yr 56% 3-yr 44% 1-yr 23% Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7 Peer 8 Antero Resources | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: April 2023 Enverus Intelligence Research note. Note: Represents U.S. Onshore Boe annual decline rates. Peers include Aethon, Ascent, CHK, CNX, CRK, EQT, RRC and SWN.#7Firm Transport to the LNG Fairway 75% of Antero's Natural Gas is Delivered to the LNG Fairways Firm Transport to LNG Fairway (Bcf/d) 2.3 75% of Natural Gas Production (1) 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 SWN EQT RRC CHK CNX ANR 0.6 Bcf/d 1.4 Bcf/d 0.3 Bcf/d Cove Point LNG TGP/CGT/ GXP | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: Company filings and Antero estimates. 1) Gulf Coast LNG Fairway Represents percent of consensus gross gas residue production as of 5/1/23. AR is currently selling ~1.0 Bcf/d directly to LNG facilities 7#8Diverse Production Mix & Export Exposure = Premium Pricing Liquids Production - 2023 Guidance (MBbl/d), 190 % of Natural Gas Sold Out of Basin (1) (2023E) 100% ~40% Exported 75% to LNG Fairway RRC SWN EQT CHK CNX 2023E Liquids % of Total Revenue 46% RRC CHK SWN CNX EQT Source: Company presentations and filings. RRC (2) EQT SWN CNX CHK) Natural Gas Price Differential to Henry Hub ($/Mcf) $0.10 (2023 Guidance) ($0.35) ($0.40) ($0.43) ($0.48) ($0.63) CHK RRC CNX EQT SWN Note: Liquids production includes C2+ NGLS and oil. Exports include -50% of C3+ NGLs and 11.5 MBbl/d of ethane. | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)1) Natural gas sold out of basin refers to all gas sold using pricing indices other than those published for the TETCO M2 & Eastern Gas markets in Appalachia. 2) Represents CHK and SWN's Appalachia firm transport volumes only.#9Unparalleled Commitment to Debt Reduction Debt (Reduction) / Increase Since YE'19 ($Bn) +$2.3 +$1.7 +$0.9 ($0.5) ($1.6) ($2.4) RRC CNX EQT Net Debt at 03/31/23 ($MM) (2) ($Bn) $5,945 $3,932 $2,963 $2,200 $1,312 $1,606 RRC CNX CHK SWN EQT SWN CHK (1) Leverage - 03/31/23 and 12/31/23E (2) 12/31/2022 12/31/2023 2.3x 1.8x1.7x 1.7x 1.7x 1.0x Leverage 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 0.5x0.7x 0.7x 0.8x CHK RRC SWN EQT CNX Source: Company public filings and press releases. FactSet for consensus data. Note: Debt balances as of 03/31/23 pro forma for all acquisitions announced to date. Net Debt and Leverage are Non-GAAP metrics. Please see appendix for additional disclosures and definitions. 1) Excludes $7.8 bn of debt cancelled as a result of Chapter 11 Bankruptcy filing. | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 2) Represents Net Debt to LTM EBITDA as of 03/31/23 pro forma for all acquisitions announced. Peers' 12/31/23E leverage based on Jan-23 JPM equity research note - assumes $3.00 gas price & $24/Bbl C2+ NGLS. AR represents forecasted 12/31/23 leverage using same commodity price assumptions. 6#10Free Cash Flow Break-Even Antero's liquids uplift and natural gas premium takeaway drive its low breakeven pricing - Liquids Revenue Uplift – 2023E ($/Mcf of Gas Production) $2.77 2023E Unhedged FCF Natural Gas Price Break-even ($/Mcf Henry Hub) I Maintenance Capital Interest Expense Cash Costs + Basis - Liquids Uplift Base Dividend Appalachian Operators Peer 1 Peer 5 Peer 4 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 6 Natural Gas Basis Differential ($/Mcf of Gas Production - 2023 Guidance) $0.10 Peer 4 Peer 1 Peer 6 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 5 | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Haynesville Operators $3.80 $3.38 Peers $3.14 Antero $2.87 $2.51 $2.53 $2.56 Key AR Drivers Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Source: Publicly disclosed guidance, company presentations, earnings call transcripts, Wall Street research. Note: Peers include CNX, CHK, CRK, EQT, RRC and SWN. 2023 NGL and oil pricing reflects strip as of 4/25/2023. 10#11Prudent Share Repurchase Story Since Program Inception ($MM) $2,500 $2,000 Since the inception of the program, AR has purchased over 30 MM shares for ~$1 Bn, or 10% of common shares outstanding Quarterly Share Repurchase 30 MM Shares Or 10% of total 2 shares outstanding (1)(2) $2,105 ~50% of FCF $1,500 $1,027 $1,000 $87 $198 $382 $500 $100 $259 $0 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 Cumulative Share Cumulative Free Repurchases (1) Cash Flow Note: Free Cash Flow ("FCF") is a Non-GAAP metric. Please see appendix for additional disclosures, definitions, and assumptions. 1) | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 2) The total shares purchased to date and three months ended March 31, 2022 and 2023 includes 2.5 million and 0.4 million shares of our common stock, respectively, related to satisfying tax withholding obligations incurred upon the vesting of equity awards held by our employees. Shares outstanding as of December 31, 2021. 11#1225 Industry Leading Emissions Performance (metric tons CO2e/Mboe) Reported GHG Intensity 25 Antero Resources is #1 for Lowest GHG Intensity Amongst Peers 20 20 15 10 5 Antero Resources Peers Source: Data retrieved from 2020-2021 sustainability reports or calculated from 2019 sustainability and public disclosures. Antero Resources' Peer companies include: AR, CHK, CNX, COP, DVN, EOG, EQT, FANG, HES, MRO, OVV, PXD, RRC, SWN | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) intensity is based on the total GHG emissions reported to the EPA under Subpart W of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule Program (GHGRP). 12#13Antero: Built to Generate Long-Term Value AR's Corporate Strategy is Built to Deliver Consistent and Repeatable Shareholder Value over the Long-Term World Class Resource + Scale Highly Economic, Multi-Decade Inventory Midstream Integration Fully Integrated & Reliable Midstream Provider F ** Premium Firm Transport Current Access to LNG Fairway & Premium Pricing | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Shareholder Returns Product Diversity $ Liquids Uplift & Consistent Repeatable Margins Industry-Best Balance Sheet Providing Unmatched Flexibility Low FCF Breakeven Free Cash Flow Generation + Strong Balance Sheet = Stable Capital Returns 13#14Antero Resources NATURAL GAS & NGL MACRO OUTLOOK#15U.S. Natural Gas Outlook Commentary from U.S. Land Drillers during the 1Q23 earnings calls suggest meaningful rig count reductions Gas directed drilling rigs have already decreased 30 rigs, or 15% Natural gas demand growth is expected to outpace supply growth over the next two years, driven by significant LNG export growth While natural gas supply growth is expected from the Permian and Haynesville, the incremental supply from these areas will not be enough to offset: Demand growth expected from LNG exports Limited supply growth from Appalachia (currently produces 1/3 of U.S. supply) due to infrastructure constraints Reduced activity in higher cost legacy natural gas basins across the U.S. Antero is uniquely positioned to benefit with a strategy of operating in the lowest cost natural gas basin in the U.S. combined with a leading firm transportation portfolio that delivers the majority of its gas to the growing LNG demand markets | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 15#16U.S. Gas Directed Rig Reduction Since March, U.S. natural gas directed drilling rigs have decreased by 30 rigs, or by 15% U.S. Natural Gas Directed Drilling Rigs 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 Lowest level since July 2022 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: Platts Analytics and IHS. Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 my Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 16 30 rig decrease#1720 0 100+ Rigs 100 80 60 42 Rigs 38 Rigs 12 Rigs 40 Haynesville Rig Count $3.00/MMBtu NYMEX Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 0 (20) (40) (30) (60) (65%) (71%) (80) (71) 01/31/12 02/28/15 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Rig Reduction When Front Month Natural Gas Breaks $3.00/MMBtu Peak-to-Trough Rig Drop % Change Feb-15 Aug-15 L 0% 37% Appalachia Haynesville 40% (20%) 27% 27% 30% (26) (40%) 20% (44%) (42) (60%) 10% (60%) Appalachia Haynesville 18% 21% 14% (80%) 0% 02/28/19 Average Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: Baker Hughes, RigData and Platts data for decline rates. Decline rates based on most recent state data as of 9/30/2022. Balance 2023E represents potential reduction in Haynesville rig count due to price levels. 17 Historical Activity Suggests Further Decline in Haynesville Rig Count Haynesville Rigs vs. NYMEX Henry Hub Front Month ($/MMBtu) NYMEX Henry Hub $3.00/MMBtu 58 Rigs 32 Rigs $3.00/MMBtu NYMEX Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Annual Decline Rates - Basin Decline $10.00 73 Rigs Current: $8.00 59 Rigs $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 Feb-23 Bal' 23E + $0.00#18Where Will the Natural Gas Supply Come From? U.S. Natural Gas Demand Growth (Next Two Years) (Bcf/d) 6.5 LNG 0.7 0.1 Mexico Exports Industrial Flat 7.3 PowerBurn/ Rescomm Total Demand A Flat despite increasing annually since 2014 New Fortress, Golden Pass, Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Increased Mexico power and industrial demand U.S. Natural Gas Supply Growth (Next Two Years) (Bcf/d) 1.1 0.1 3.6 10 0.1 4.9 Permian Fills 100% of pipeline capacity Haynesville Moderated activity levels | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Appalachia Appalachia pipeline constrained Source: S&P Global Platts Other Total Supply A Note: Demand change assumes LNG utilization rate of 90% through 2025. Canadian Imports included in supply category. 2.4 Bcf/d short of Demand 18#19Demand: Growing Global LNG Market There is 14.5 Bcf/d of LNG capacity in service today with 6.5 Bcf/d of growth by 3Q25; AR is a top U.S. LNG supplier with the ability to deliver into the growing demand U.S. LNG Capacity Through 2027 (Bcf/d) 28 In Service Under Construction 14.5 Bcf/d 6.5 Bcf/d CHENIERE 26 FID Approved 2.7 Bcf/d Waiting on FID (The Big Three Only) 3.7 Bcf/d SEMPRA "The Big Three" Proven Developers - 1st movers Cheniere, Sempra & Venture Global lead the LNG export buildout through financing & construction execution 24 Total = 27.4 Bcf/d VENTURE GLOBAL LNG 22 20 18 +6.5 Bcf/d by 3Q25 YE 2025 21.0 Bcf/d YE 2024 18.3 Bcf/d Golden Pass 3 YE 2027 27.4 Bcf/d Cameron 4 (Sempra) YE 2026 24.7 Bcf/d Port Arthur 1 (Sempra) Plaquemines 2 (Venture Global) Calcasieu Pass 2 (Venture Global) Plaquemines (Venture Global) Costa Azul (Sempra) Corpus Christi 3 (Cheniere) High Probability Projects 16 Golden Pass 2 YE 2022 14.5 Bcf/di YE 2023 14.9 Bcf/d Calcasieu Pass 9 Golden Pass 1 New Fortress FLNG (Floating) 14 Calcasieu Pass 5-8 Calcasieu Pass 1-4 (Venture Global) 12 10 8 00 LO 6 14.5 Bcf/d Now In Service Additional Potential Projects: - Texas LNG - Magnolia LNG Commonwealth LNG - Penn America LNG - Lake Charles LNG - Rio Grande LNG - Freeport 4 - Delfin FLNG +12.9 Bcf/d New Capacity Added YE 2027 4 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 || Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: Antero Natural Gas Fundamentals, FERC. 19#20Power Burn Demand Growth Fundamental rise in power burn continues in 2023 with year to date power burn 12% above the five year average, or 3.2 Bcf/d, as coal retirements more than offset mild weather Natural Gas Power Burn (Bcf/d) 47 45 43 41 39 -2014 2015 -2016 -2017 -2018 -2019 -2020 2021 2022 2023 July 2022 Record 45 Bcf/d Assumes 2023 trends to 2022 despite 3.2 Bcf/d higher YTD 2022 21 19 17 29 25 33332~2~27 35 2023 31.0 31.2 31 29.7 29.5 Shoulder Floor Rising Every Year, Natural Gas Power Burn Has Climbed Higher Shoulder Months Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: S&P Global Platts. 20 20#21Coal Plant Retirements Large amounts of coal plant retirements provide upside to natural gas power generation through 2030 Coal Plant Capacity Retirements (2022-2030) 12,000 10,000 8,000 \ 6,000 4,000 2,000 יוי 10 9 80 7 96 5 4 Bcf/d 3 2 1 0 0 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total Coal Retirement Cumulative Displaced (Bcf/d) | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA). 21#22Summary The U.S. NGL market continues to recover, with record propane exports year to date 2023, as China drastically increases its PDH capacity and utilization rates, while relying increasingly on the U.S. for LPG imports. • U.S. propane exports have increased by 16% YoY due to post-COVID recoveries from Chinese demand Propane inventories could correct to 5-year averages by mid-2023 assuming strong exports continue • 2023 is expected to be a pivotal year for the liquids market due to the large number of VLGC deliveries and significant Chinese PDH capacity additions • The U.S. is the incremental global supplier of NGLs to meet this increasing international demand Antero is well-positioned to benefit from increasing global NGL demand as a top U.S. NGL producer and with over 50% of NGL volumes being exported | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 22 22#23U.S. Exports of Propane Hit Record Highs in 2023 MMBbl/d 1.8 U.S. Exports of Propane/Propylene, Quarterly Average (MMBbl/d) Weekly Record High Set on April 14, 2023 of 1.85 MMBbl/d 2020 1.7 2021 1.6 Initial COVID Onset 1.5 COVID 'Normal' and China Lockdowns 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 60 2020 Avg: 1.15 MMBbl/d 2022 Western Economies Reopening 2021 Avg: 1.18 MMBbl/d 2022 Avg: 1.35 MMBbl/d 2023 2023 Avg YTD: 1.57 MMBbl/d China Reopening 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: EIA 23#24China PDH Buildout Continues -Propane Dehydrogenation ("PDH") Facilities produce propylene ultimately for plastics China is Adding Over 400 MBbl/d of New PDH Capacity in 2023-2024, a 70% Increase to the Existing Operational Capacity of 570 MBbl/d Globally Planned PDH Units MBbl/d China's Planned 2023/2024 PDH Units lin China North America Middle East Rest of Asia Europe 400 Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region 300 Beijing 200 Shanxi Hebei Liaoning Lihuayi Weiyuan Chemical 24,000 BPD 2024 Shandong Befar Chemical 24,000 BPD 2H 2023 South Korea 100 0 2023 2024 Shaanxi Shandong Jiangsu Qingdao Jinneng No 2 37,000 BPD 2H 2023 Yellow Sea Sinochem Ruiheng Xuyu CHINA 24,000 BPD 2Q 2023 Anhui Yanchang Zhongran Taixing 24,000 BPD 2Q 2023 Tibet Autonomous Region Sichuan Chongqing Huahong Petrochemical No 2 Shanghai Formosa Ningbo 24,000 BPD 2H 2023 18,000 BPD Globally planned PDH units will require over 573 MBbl/d of incremental propane feedstock from 2023-2024 2Q 2023 Jiangxi Ningbo Jinfa No 2 Zhejiang Yuanjin New Material (Sanyuan subsidiary) 31,000 BPD 24,000 BPD 2H 2023 Guizhou 2024 Fujian Soft Packaging Meide 37,000 BPD 2H 2023 Fujian East China Sea Quanzhou Guoheng Chemical 24,000 BPD 2H 2023 Juzhengyuan No 2 Myanmar Thailand Laos 24,000 BPD 2Q 2023 Vietnam | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: Argus, Energy Aspects Hainan. Guangdong Taiwan Hong Kong Oriental Maoming No 1 24,000 BPD 2Q 2023 Oriental Maoming No 2 24,000 BPD 2024 Grand Resources No 3 24,000 BPD 2024 W E South China Sea 0 100 200 Miles#2514,000 2,000 2016 2017 Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights data as of April 2023 *Note: Includes recovered ethane only. || Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 2018 2019 2020 **Recent OPEC+ additional oil output cuts to decline OPEC+ LPG supply by 8% from May 2023 to Dec 2023** 2021 2022 6,000 Rest of World 1,000 4,000 Rest of World 2024E vs. 2022: 1% growth 500 2023 2024 2,000 Existing Expansions 12,000 Capacity LPG 10,000 U.S. U.S. 2024E vs. 2022: 13% growth Exports 1,500 8,000 Лут U.S. is the Likely Incremental LPG Supplier The U.S. is the incremental supplier and exporter of NGLs for growing global demand World C2+ NGL Production U.S. Gulf Coast LPG Export Capacity (MBbl/d) U.S. AND WORLD C2+ NGL PRODUCTION GROWTH FORECAST FOR 2024 vs. 2022 MBbl/d) 2,500 16,000 +7% Global Growth Export Capacity Unconstrained Through End of 2026 with Announced Expansions U.S. has the Supply Growth and Infrastructure Needed to Supply Increasing Global Demand 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: Energy Aspects, S&P Global Commodity Insights as of April 2023. 25#26VLCG Delivery & Scrapping 0 "VLGC" Shipping Buildout Will Reduce Freight Rates -Very Large Gas Carriers ("VLGC") transport LPG (propane and butane) Propane VLGC Additions of +0.3 MMBbl/d in 2023 will Lower Shipping Costs Global VLGC Fleet 50 50 46 New Ships in 2023 (11 delivered through April) 40 40 Total Ship Fleet (Right Axis) 30 30 20 20 10 $/Metric Ton Baltic VLGC Futures 405 105 390 95 Ship Additions Support Robust Exports and Mont Belvieu Pricing 340 85 290 VLGC Ships 240 Delivered 190 VLGC Fleet 75 Current Levels at $75/Metric Ton vs. $94/Metric Ton in February 55 65 140 55 90 40 40 45 40 -10 VLGC Ships Scrapped -10 35 2023 | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: Poten Baltic Futures as of 4/25 Baltic Futures as of 2/24 The Baltic Rate is the USD Per Metric Ton Rate for the LPG Freight Route from Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia to Chiba, Japan for Cargoes of 44,000 Metric Tons. Source: CME 2024 2025 26#27NGL Demand Growth Expected Through 2050 Demand for NGLs will continue to grow to meet the needs of the energy transition and the growth in global petrochemical demand Change in Demand by Liquids Product Change in Market Share MBbl/d 14,000 LPG demand up 1.44 MMBbl/d by 2030 12,000 10,000 8,000 10,796 6,000 85,396 4,000 4,427 2,000 MBbl/d 5% 5% 94,000 16% 11% 12,429 11% 92,000 LPG NGL share increases 90,000 Ethane 88,000 85% 6,708 84% 86,000 85,583 Other Oil Products 84,000 Gaining Petrochemical and Res/Comm Demand Increases NGL Demand 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 2046 2048 2050 82,000 82% Crude and Condensate share decreases 6% 18% 12% 80,000 2022-2029 2030-2039 2040-2050 All Other Oil Products LPG Ethane Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights, Nov 2022 Reference Case. 27#28U.S. NGL Supply Growth Expected to Peak by 2030 U.S. NGL supply growth is expected to decline by 2030 despite the continued growth in demand well into the 2040's U.S. Shale Crude and Condensate Production Forecast to 2040 (MMBbl/d) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2010 Other Eagle Ford Bakken "Peak Shale" Permian 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 Year on Year Growth by Basin (MMBbl/d 2.0 "Peak Shale" 1.0 0.0 -1.0 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights. 28#29ESG Benefits of Growing Global NGL Demand Increasing res/comm needs of the world to be met with the benefits of cleaner burning LPG fuel sources to 3 billion people 39 In 2021, over 21 million barrels of Antero propane and butane were shipped to international markets. On average, that is over 58,500 barrels per day and LPG CARGOES roughly 39 very large gas carrier (VLGC) cargoes over the course of 2021. A significant portion of Antero's LPGs were sent to Africa, Asia and Europe. <-- ANTERO LPG CARGO DESTINATIONS 39 LPG CARGOES Around 3 billion people, over one-third of the world's population, are required to cook using solid fuels (wood, crop wastes, charcoal, coal and dung) and kerosene in open fires and inefficient stoves. In 2021, approximately 1/4 of Antero's LPG exports were shipped to developing countries as defined by the United Nations. These LPG exports have supplied cleaner energy to households in developing countries for heating and cooking. These cooking practices produce high levels of household air pollution with a wide range of damaging health impacts. Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: Antero ESG. 29 29#30Antero Resources APPENDIX#31Guidance Net Production (Bcfe/d) Net Natural Gas Production (Bcf/d) Net Liquids Production (Bbl/d) Net Daily C3+ NGL Production (Bbl/d) Net Daily Ethane Production (Bbl/d) Net Daily Oil Production (Bbl/d) Natural Gas Realized Price Expected Premium to NYMEX ($/Mcf) C2 Ethane Realized Price - Expected (Discount) / Premium to Mont Belvieu ($/Bbl) C3+ NGL Realized Price - Expected Premium to Mont Belvieu ($/Bbl) (1) Oil Realized Price Expected Differential to WTI ($/Bbl) Cash Production Expense ($/Mcfe) (2) Net Marketing Expense ($/Mcfe) G&A Expense ($/Mcfe) (before equity-based compensation) D&C Capital Expenditures ($MM) Land Capital Expenditures ($MM) Average Operated Rigs, Average Completion Crews Operated Wells Completed (Net) Operated Wells Drilled (Net) Operated Wells Completed (Gross) Operated Wells Drilled (Gross) Average Lateral Lengths, Completed Average Lateral Lengths, Drilled | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 2) 1) 2023 Guidance Ranges 3.25 3.30 - 2.10 -2.15 184,000 - 195,000 105,000 110,000 70,000 - 75,000 9,000-10,000 $0.05 to $0.15 ($1.00) - $1.00 ($1.00) - $1.00 ($10.00) ($14.00) $2.40 - $2.50 $0.07 $0.09 $0.12 - $0.14 $875 - $925 $150 Rigs: 3 | Completion Crews: 2 Wells Completed: 60 - 65 Wells Drilled: 65 - 70 Wells Completed: 70 - 75 Wells Drilled: 75 - 80 Completed: 13,500 Drilled: 14,500 Based on Antero C3+ NGL component barrel which consists of 56% C3 (propane), 10% isobutane (Ic4), 17% normal butane (Nc4) and 17% natural gasoline (C5+). Includes lease operating expenses, gathering, compression, processing and transportation expenses ("GP&T") and production and ad valorem taxes. 31#32Antero Resources Non-GAAP Measures Adjusted EBITDAX: Adjusted EBITDAX as defined by the Company represents income or loss, including noncontrolling interests, before interest expense, interest income, unrealized gains or losses from commodity derivatives, but including net cash receipts or payments on derivative instruments included in derivative gains or losses other than proceeds from derivative monetizations, income taxes, impairment of property and equipment, depletion, depreciation, amortization, and accretion, exploration expense, equity-based compensation expense, contract termination, transaction fees, gain or loss on sale of assets, loss on early extinguishment of debt, loss on convertible note inducement and equitizations and equity in earnings of and dividends from unconsolidated affiliates. Adjusted EBITDAX also includes distributions received with respect to limited partner interests in Antero Midstream Partners common units prior to the closing of the simplification transaction on March 12, 2019. The GAAP financial measure nearest to Adjusted EBITDAX is net income or loss including noncontrolling interest that will be reported in Antero's condensed consolidated financial statements. While there are limitations associated with the use of Adjusted EBITDAX described below, management believes that this measure is useful to an investor in evaluating the Company's financial performance because it: • is widely used by investors in the oil and natural gas industry to measure operating performance without regard to items excluded from the calculation of such term, which may vary substantially from company to company depending upon accounting methods and the book value of assets, capital structure, and the method by which assets were acquired, among other factors; helps investors to more meaningfully evaluate and compare the results of Antero's operations from period to period by removing the effect of its capital and legal structure from its consolidated operating structure; and is used by management for various purposes, including as a measure of Antero's operating performance, in presentations to the Company's board of directors, and as a basis for strategic planning and forecasting. Adjusted EBITDAX is also used by the board of directors as a performance measure in determining executive compensation. There are significant limitations to using Adjusted EBITDAX as a measure of performance, including the inability to analyze the effects of certain recurring and non-recurring items that materially affect the Company's net income or loss, the lack of comparability of results of operations of different companies, and the different methods of calculating Adjusted EBITDAX reported by different companies. In addition, Adjusted EBITDAX provides no information regarding a company's capital structure, borrowings, interest costs, capital expenditures, and working capital movement or tax position. Net Debt: Net Debt is calculated as total long-term debt less cash and cash equivalents. Management uses Net Debt to evaluate its financial position, including its ability to service its debt obligations. Leverage: Leverage is calculated as LTM Adjusted EBITDAX divided by net debt. Free Cash Flow: Free Cash Flow is a measure of financial performance not calculated under GAAP and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for cash flow from operating, investing, or financing activities, as an indicator of cash flow, or as a measure of liquidity. The Company defines Free Cash Flow as Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities, less Net Cash Used in Investing Activities, which includes drilling and completion capital and leasehold capital, less proceeds from asset sales and less distributions to non-controlling interests in Martica. The Company has not provided a reconciliation of Net Debt, Adjusted EBITDAX or Leverage as of or for the year ended December 31, 2023 to the nearest GAAP measures because it cannot do so without unreasonable effort and any attempt to do so would be inherently imprecise. See assumptions slide for more information regarding key assumptions. Free Cash Flow is a useful indicator of the Company's ability to internally fund its activities and to service or incur additional debt and estimate return of capital. There are significant limitations to using Free Cash Flow as a measure of performance, including the inability to analyze the effect of certain recurring and non-recurring items that materially affect the Company's net income, the lack of comparability of results of operations of different companies and the different methods of calculating Free Cash Flow reported by different companies. Free Cash Flow does not represent funds available for discretionary use because those funds may be required for debt service, land acquisitions and lease renewals, other capital expenditures, working capital, income taxes, exploration expenses, and other commitments and obligations. | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 32#33Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Three Months Ended December 31, Year Ended December 31, 2021 2022 2021 2022 Reconciliation of net income (loss) to Adjusted EBITDAX: Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) attributable to Antero Resources Corporation $ 901,385 730,296 (186,899) 1,898,771 Net income and comprehensive income attributable to noncontrolling interests Unrealized commodity derivative (gains) losses Payments for derivative monetizations Amortization of deferred revenue, VPP 56,636 (1,025,870) 63,832 32,790 (618,134) 748,540 127,201 (295,229) 4,569 - (11,403) (9,478) (45,236) (37,603) Loss (gain) on sale of assets 595 (1,600) (2,232) 471 Interest expense, net 43,748 25,120 181,868 125,372 Loss on early extinguishment of debt 10,355 652 93,191 46,027 Loss on convertible note inducement and equitizations - 50,777 169 Income tax expense (benefit) 263,491 140,390 (74,077) 448,692 Depletion, depreciation, amortization and accretion 178,716 169,959 745,829 685,227 Impairment of property and equipment 20,905 69,982 90,523 149,731 Exploration expense Equity-based compensation expense 474 628 6,566 3,651 5,248 12,221 20,437 35,443 Adjusted EBITDAX Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliate Dividends from unconsolidated affiliate Contract termination, transaction expense and other Martica related adjustments (1) || Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) (19,464) (17,464) (77,085) (72,327) 31,284 31,284 136,609 125,138 193 5,031 7,600 25,288 456,293 602,719 1,733,770 3,266,022 (36,032) (38,012) (116,468) (163,081) $ 420,261 564,707 1,617,302 3,102,941 33#34Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Three Months Ended March 31, 2022 2023 Reconciliation of net income (loss) to Adjusted EBITDAX: Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) attributable to Antero Resources Corporation $ (156,419) 213,431 Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests (18,277) 47,771 Unrealized commodity derivative (gains) losses 725,994 (342,799) Payments for derivative monetizations 202,339 Amortization of deferred revenue, VPP Loss (gain) on sale of assets Interest expense, net Loss on early extinguishment of debt Loss on convertible note inducement Income tax expense (benefit) Depletion, depreciation, amortization and accretion Impairment of property and equipment Exploration expense Equity-based compensation expense Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliate Dividends from unconsolidated affiliate Contract termination, transaction expense and other (9,272) (7,533) 1,786 (91) 37,713 25,700 10,654 86 (53,092) 62,183 170,832 168,460 22,462 15,560 898 754 4,649 13,018 (25,178) (17,681) 31,285 31,285 48 32,418 744,083 444,901 Martica related adjustments (1) Adjusted EBITDAX (37,201) (31,132) $ 706,882 413,769 | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 1) Adjustments reflect noncontrolling interests in Martica not otherwise adjusted in amounts above. 34#35Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Reconciliation of net income to Adjusted EBITDAX: Net income and comprehensive income attributable to Antero Resources Corporation Net income and comprehensive income attributable to noncontrolling interests Unrealized commodity derivative gains Payments for derivative monetizations Amortization of deferred revenue, VPP Gain on sale of assets Interest expense, net Loss on early extinguishment of debt Loss on convertible note inducement Income tax expense Depletion, depreciation, amortization, and accretion Impairment of property and equipment Exploration Equity-based compensation expense Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliate Dividends from unconsolidated affiliate Contract termination, transaction expense and other Martica related adjustments (1) Adjusted EBITDAX | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 1) Adjustments reflect noncontrolling interests in Martica not otherwise adjusted in amounts above. Twelve Months Ended March 31, 2023 $ 2,268,621 193,249 (1,364,022) 202,339 (35,864) (1,406) 113,359 35,373 255 563,967 682,855 142,829 3,507 43,812 (64,830) 125,138 57,658 2,966,840 (157,012) $ 2,809,828 35#36Antero Resources Free Cash Flow Reconciliation Net cash provided by operating activities Less: Net cash used in investing activities Plus: Payments for derivative monetizations Plus: Contract termination Less: Proceeds from sale of assets, net Less: Distributions to non-controlling interests in Martica Free Cash Flow Changes in Working Capital (1) Free Cash Flow before Changes in Working Capital Three Months Ended March 31, 2022 $ 565,673 2023 (215,117) 343,902 (350,804) 202,339 8 29,550 (195) (91) (35,757) $ 314,612 (51,339) 173,557 150,474 (149,765) $ 465,086 23,792 1) Working capital adjustments in the first quarter of 2022 include a $136.0 million net decrease in current assets and current liabilities and a $14.5 million decrease in accounts payable and accrued liabilities for additions to property and equipment. Working capital adjustments in the first quarter of 2023 include a $159.7 million net increase in current assets and liabilities and a $9.9 million decrease in accounts payable and accrued liabilities for additions to property and equipment. | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 36#37Antero Resources Total Debt to Net Debt Reconciliation Credit Facility 8.375% senior notes due 2026 7.625% senior notes due 2029 5.375% senior notes due 2030 4.250% convertible senior notes due 2026 Total long-term debt Unamortized debt issuance costs Less: Cash and cash equivalents Net Debt | Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) December 31, March 31, 2022 2023 $ 34,800 180,100 96,870 96,870 407,115 407,115 600,000 600,000 56,932 39,426 (12,241) (11,465) $ 1,183,476 1,312,046 $ 1,183,476 1,312,046 37

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Q4 & FY22 - Investor Presentation image

Q4 & FY22 - Investor Presentation

Financial Services

FY23 Results - Investor Presentation image

FY23 Results - Investor Presentation

Financial Services

Ferocious - Plant Growth Optimizer image

Ferocious - Plant Growth Optimizer

Agriculture

Market Outlook and Operational Insights image

Market Outlook and Operational Insights

Metals and Mining

2023 Investor Presentation image

2023 Investor Presentation

Financial

Leveraging EdTech Across 3 Verticals image

Leveraging EdTech Across 3 Verticals

Technology

Axis 2.0 Digital Banking image

Axis 2.0 Digital Banking

Sustainability & Digital Solutions

Capital One’s acquisition of Discover image

Capital One’s acquisition of Discover

Mergers and Acquisitions