#111/11/2021 1 UNITED STATESA SAGENCY INTER ERNATIONAL DEVELOPMEN USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Ethemome Fable mionic e moonts Mali PSR Progress & Opportunities Mali Peacebuilding, Stabilization, and Reconciliation (Mali PSR) December 2020 Beyond Borders Media#211/16/2020 | UNITED D AGENCY STATES A ERNATIONAL PRESENTATION ORDER I. Mali PSR Theory of Change & Objectives 2. Monitoring & Evaluation Findings 3. Key Outcomes Achieved 4. Political Transition: Opinions & Opportunities 5. What's Next? 6. Questions DEVELOPMEN USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 2#3Mali PSR Theory of Change 11/11/2021 If communities are better able to identify and respond to threats to social cohesion and security If the relationship between citizens and their government is improved [and trust enhanced] Then community resilience to violence and conflict will be fortified And the foundations for peacebuilding, stabilization and reconciliation will be strengthened If youth, [women, and marginalized groups] are engaged in development and democratic change Mali PSR Guiding Principle: Shared Responsibility - Shared Success 3#4Mali PSR Objectives Objective I Objective 2 Objective 3 Objective 4 Community Resilience to Violence and Conflict Reinforced Inclusive Governance and Civic Engagement Strengthened in Conflict- Affected Communities Empowering Youth and Building Their Resilience to Violent Extremism Impact of COVID-19 and the Associated Second Order Effects on Malian Communities Mitigated 11/11/2021 4#5Mali PSR Target Communes and Regions Mali PSR Target Areas Communes shaded & labeled Region boundaries Regions added for Objective 4 45. Touwal 46. Agouni Taoudenit 44. Achamour 3 Taoudenit Kidal 1. Kidal 2. Anefif 3. Tessalit 4. Essouk The Regions of Taoudenit and Menaka were established by the 2015 Peace Agreement but to date no publicly available boundary data has been published. 11/11/2021 Segou 11. Segou 12. Matomo 13. Pelengana 14. Markala 15. Diabaly 16. Tongue 17. Macina 18. Niono Tombouctou 6. Dire 5. Tombouctou 45 044 46 10 7. Goundam 8. Souboundou 9. Bourem-Inaly 10. Ber Kidal 4 1 2 38 39 37 5 9 Gao Ménaka 40 Menaka 41. Menaka Tombouctou 8 6 33 33 34 41 43 42. Anderamboukane 43. Alata 42 28 Mopti 22 35 35 36 27 15 55 20 19 29 25 18 25 30 26 Koulikoro Kayes 17 12 32 21 23 24 14 11 16 31 Bamako 13 Ségou Gao 33. Gao Mopti Sikasso 19. Mopti 20. Tenenkou 21. Bankass 22. Douentza 23. Koro 24. Segue 26. Dinangourou 27. Konna 28. Youwarou 29. Bandiagara 30. Dioungani 31. Ouenkoro 25. Togue Mourari 32. Djenné 34. Ansongo 35. Tessit 36. Ouattagouna 37. Bourem 38. Tarkint 39. Bamba-Bou 40. Sony-Aliber 5#6| Monitoring & Evaluation Findings YEL HO#7Data Sources and Methods Used Focus Group Discussions with CEC and CSO members in four regions Survey of citizens 16 or older in Mali PSR 46 target communes 11/11/2021#811/11/2021 Focus Group Discussions (FGD) Details 12 FGDs conducted with 97 participants (51 men; 46 women) FGDs implemented in four regions of Segou, Mopti, Tombouctou, and Gao in October 2020 Participants: members of the Community Engagement Committees (CEC) and CSOs Methodology Used: Observation- Reflection-Insight-Decision (ORID) Survey Details Representative citizen survey completed in 46 target communes in Center and North Data collection between 21 September and 14 October 2020 by GISSE Survey sample size is 2,648 with a margin of error of ± 1.9% A follow-on survey is planned for late 2021 8#9të me Me Nen Key Mali PSR Outcomes Achieved Finiw ni farikolo saniyali welles de la classe: N' Suurin Mahamadou a joué avec ses amis, Friture: la bate L'élève - lecture - Wh بارية#10Improved tolerance and openness to dialogue and mediation 11/11/2021 "In reality, we realize that often it is through ignorance that certain situations escalate because we did not give the time to understand the why or the how of things before reacting. Now we realize that acting to retaliate with rage without knowing the context of things inevitably leads us to catastrophic situations which are in reality to the advantage of no one." Male participant, Segou "Peace awareness activities have helped mitigate the effects of inter-ethnic tensions." Male participant, Tombouctou "Anger, revenge, and settlement of personal scores are not the best methods to resolve conflict situations, nothing beats dialogue and especially justice when it is achieved. We will therefore advocate for more dialogue and the search for justice than revenge. Male participant, Segou 10#11Malians exposed to PSR activities more likely to have tolerant views of other ethnic groups 90% vs. 85% Do you get along well or not with people belonging to a different ethnic group from your own?" PSR participants n = 292 31% 60% 8% 2% Non-participants n= 1,458 35% 11/11/2021 50% 8% 9% 3% ■ Very well Well Depends/ DK ■Badly ■ Very badly#12Malians exposed to PSR activities more likely to favor return and reintegration of ex- combatants 59% vs. 55% "Are you in favor of the return and reintegration of ex-combatants into your community?" 1% PSR participants n = 292 16% 43% 28% 11% Non-participants n= 1,458 17% 38% 1% 27% 16% 11/11/2021 Very much in favor In favor DK Not much in favor Not at all in favor 12#1311/11/2021 Improved awareness of the importance of including women and the roles women can play in conflict management and PVE "We women thought that the issue of conflict management and the fight against violent extremism was above all a man's business, but we realize through these discussion and awareness sessions that we have an important role to play also in this fight." "Women recipients of capacity building have created WhatsApp groups to mobilize and share information between them on peace. They educate their children not to join violent extremist groups." Female participant, Segou Female participant, Segou 13#14Malians exposed to PSR activities significantly more likely to be civically engaged Taking part in civic activities % saying they did listed activity to solve a community issue or express their point of view 11/11/2021 Partcipated in cleanup/ hygiene activities in commune Participated in a gathering or meeting organized by an NGO 72% 58% 70% 42% Participated in a gathering or meeting organized by political party 61% 42% 44% Participated in a protest 24% Contacted or visited a community leader or public 39% official 23% ■PSR participant Encouraged your community (youth, women) to contact the other community 38% 25% Non-participant 26% Written on social media such as Facebook or Twitter 10% 19% Called in a radio or TV show 10% 14% Signed a petition 9% 14#15Malians exposed to PSR activities significantly more likely to be civically engaged 82% vs. 62% Engagement in civic activities - % who report participating in different civic activties in the past 6 months. PSR participants n = 292 Non-participants n= 1,458 37% 11/11/2021 67% 15% 18% 25% 38% Did 2 civic activities or more Did 1 civic activity Did not do any civic activities 15#16Malians exposed to PSR activities express same trust levels of local authorities as others Trust in local elected officials - "Do you trust your local elected officials in your commune to keep your interests at heart?" PSR participants n = 292 8% 46% 2% 33% 10% Non-participants n= 1,458 13% 41% 2% 31% 13% IA lot of trust Fair amount of trust DK Limited trust No trust at all Perceptions of elected leaders - "Do you think elected leaders in your commune consider the needs and perspectives of citizens and of civil society or do they ignore them?" PSR participants n = 292 16% 11/11/2021 Non-participants n= 1,458 16% ■Consider completely Consider partially 50% 41% 2% 24% 8% 5% 23% 14% DK Ignore partially Ignore completely 16#17Strengthened youth commitment to dialogue and maintaining peace in communities "The training of young people on the tech camp was beneficial for him and other beneficiaries. Thanks to the knowledge acquired, several young people with access to social networks refrained from conveying hate messages to their relatives. Not only did they abstain but they also refrained from sharing or circulating these kinds of messages." Youth participant, Tombouctou "We learned from the PSR project that we young people have rights and can claim them without using violence." Youth participant, Segou "Economically speaking, grants for community initiatives and youth projects showed a fairly visible impact even if they have not yet reached cruising speed. Youth from CSOs who have been able to benefit, are much more productive today than before and are no longer inclined to seek their livelihoods from extremist groups. 11/11/2021 Male participant, Segou 17#18Improved awareness of COVID-19 prevention and protective measures 11/11/2021 "COVID-19 awareness activities have brought about a noticeable change in behavior. In the municipality of Mopti, the disease was well understood, especially in the adoption of protective measures. PSR's awareness-raising activities on COVID-19 have reduced the number of new cases." "Awareness of COVID-19 enabled residents to know about the disease, to prevent either its onset or its progression." Female participant, Mopti Male participant, Tombouctou 18#19Malians exposed to PSR activities significantly more likely to wear masks 64% vs. 44% "In the last week, have you worn a mask when you went to public places?" n = 2,648 PSR participants n = 292 64% 2% 33% Non-participants n = 1,458 44% 8% 48% 11/11/2021 Yes ■N/A - No 19#20Satisfaction with Local Authorities' COVID-19 Response "How satisfied are you with the measures taken by local authorities to limit the spread of COVID-19?" 11/11/2021 n = 2,648 Total 62% 5% 33% Segou 61% 7% 32% Mopti 62% 4% 34% Tombouctou 77% 6% 18% Gao 59% 1% 40% Kidal 56% 13% 31% Menaka 58% 7% 35% Taoudenit 34% 2% 64% ■Satisfied ■DK Dissatisfied 20#21Plans for Monitoring & Measuring Results in 2021 Internal Midterm Evaluation External Impact Evaluation • Conduct ORID FGDs with PSR stakeholders • • Conduct midline citizens survey to measure outcome changes Implement FGDs/Klls with women and youth CEC members and PSR participants Conduct IE study on reconciliation and reintegration sub-intervention • Use learnings for an iterative design and implementation of new reconciliation and reintegration activities Social Network Analysis Outcome Harvesting Evaluation Monitoring of Grant Results • . • • Apply SNA to assess transformation of relationships between key commune actors and influencers Examine how changes may correlate with peacebuilding outcomes • Address complexity of intended and unintended outcomes Use highly participatory process: engage various PSR stakeholders in designing harvest process and users and uses of findings Strengthen linkage between grant management and monitoring of grant results Establish new outcome measures to measure intermediate grant activity outcomes such as in knowledge and application of skills 11/11/2021 21#2211/11/2021 UNITED ERNATIONAL STATES A AGENCY DEVELOPMEN | Political Transition: Opinions & Support Opportunities USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 22#23Confidence in Transition Leading to Democracy by region "How confident are you that the transition will lead us to a democratic system and good governance?" n = 2,648 Total 81% 7% 11% Segou 81% 7% 12% Mopti 91% 4%6% Tombouctou 59% 23% 18% Gao 80% 6% 14% Kidal 76% 5% 19% Menaka 76% 5% 19% Taoudenit 35% 1% 65% A fair amount/ a lot of confidence DK ■Limited/ no confidence at all 11/11/2021 23#24Confidence in Transition Leading to Democracy by age group "How confident are you that the transition will lead us to a democratic system and good governance?" n = 2,648 11/11/2021 Total 81% 16-29 80% 30-39 40-49 50 or older 83% 87% 77% 7% 11% 7% 13% 7% 10% 7% 7% 10% 13% A fair amount/ a lot of confidence ■DK ■Limited/ no confidence at all 24#25Priority Actions for Political Transition "In your opinion, which immediate action(s) should the transitional government (or provisional government) prioritize to strengthen your trust?" Fight against insecurity/crime Education Return of peace and stability Health Job creation 51% 44% 30% 23% 15% Agriculture and food security 9% Reconciliation and management of community conflicts 8% Humanitarian aid and the fight against poverty 8% Good governance 8% Justice and the fight against impunity 6% Roads and infrastructure 5% Development and economic recovery 5% Fight against corruption 4% Organization of elections. 3% Gender and women's rights Respondents could give a maximum of 3 answers each 3% 11/11/2021 Data collected Sep 21 - Oct 14, 2020#26Top 5 Transition Priorities by Region (North) Tombouctou Gao Fight against insecurity / crime 50% Fight against insecurity / crime 54% Organization of elections 37% Organization of elections 32% Education Justice and the fight against 13% impunity Agriculture and food security 11% 34% Education 27% Humanitarian aid and the 20% fight against poverty Agriculture and food 20% security Taoudenit Fight against insecurity / 36% crime Education 23% Development and economic 23% recovery Return of peace and stability 20% Job creation 14% 11/11/2021 Data collected Sep 21 - Oct 14, 2020#27Top 5 Transition Priorities by Region (North) 11/11/2021 Menaka Fight against insecurity / crime 41% Return of peace and stability 21% Education 18% Roads and infrastructure 12% Kidal Good governance 11% Fight against insecurity / crime 52% Return of peace and stability 41% Development and economic recovery 34% Good governance 14% Education 13% Data collected Sep 21 - Oct 14, 2020#28Top 5 Transition Priorities by Region (Center) Segou Fight against insecurity/crime 51% Education 44% Return of peace and stability 30% Health 23% Job creation 15% Mopti Fight against insecurity / crime 67% Education 48% Health 33% Return of peace and stability 31% Agriculture and food security 18% 11/11/2021 Data collected Sep 21 - Oct 14, 2020#29INDUIS PLUS NO DIESEL E What's Next? VOLTARE DEL MATE TEAPPARES BOONE REPUBLIQUE DU MALI STOP AU CORONAVIRUS Appel gratuit: 36061 Photo: Mali PSR#30Mohamed Ag Aboubacrine/ Mali PSR 2019 Mali PSR in Action 11/11/2021 SIXTY Stabilization • • • • Piloting commune-level Early Warning Early Response Helping youth counter violent extremism with pro-social narratives Developing youth leadership, communication skills and livelihood opportunities COVID-19 rapid response activities and grants Political Transition • • Countering mis/disinformation Support to trans-communal cohesion Crisis Modifier transition activities Governance and Development • • Strengthening citizen participation in the development and implementation of PDSECS Supporting positive youth contributions and dialogue through Youth Cafes Creating a more inclusive society for youth and women 30#3111/11/2021 How Mali PSR Can Address Transition Priorities Peacebuilding and stabilization initiatives . • Equip local leaders to galvanize their communities to resolve grievances and support peaceful political transition Deepen and expand support to reintegration and reconciliation activities in the North Rapid response initiatives to respond to outbreaks of conflict and intercommunal tension Anchoring local security responses • • • Targeted inputs to address specific community-level security priorities Engage youth, women and nontraditional actors in community level security initiatives Convene dialogues between government, security sector, and community actors Enabling peaceful and inclusive elections • • Support youth and women-led GOTV campaigns National voter education and engagement via radio and social media Technical assistance to communities and local governments to mitigate potential election-related violence 31 Photo: Mali PSR#3211/11/2021 UNITED STATES A ERNATIONAL AGENCY DEVELOPMEN Questions? USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 32#3311/11/2021 UNITED STATES A ERNATIONAL AGENCY DEVELOPMEN Annex USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 33#34Survey Details Sample Sizes for Key Demographic Groups Total sample •All respondents = 2,648 Sex •Female 1,314 = • Male = 1,334 Age groups •16-29=904 •30-39 = 693 • 40-49 = 492 50 or older = 559 Region Segou = 703 • Mopti = 800 Tombouctou = 309 • Gao = 451 • Kidal = 160 •Menaka = 125 11/11/2021 Taoudenit = 100 Educational attainment • None = 1,652 • Primary = 619 • • Secondary = 236 Higher = 141 Ethnic groups . • Bambara = 641 • Sonhrai = 577 • Tamasheq = 436 • Arabe = 133 • Peulh = 290 • Dogon = 345 • • Other = 226 Settlement type • Urban = 937 . Rural = 1,711 Participated in PSR activities • Yes = 292 • No = 1,458 . 34#35Assessment of COVID-19 Measures Taken by GOM "How do you assess the measures taken by the Malian government to respond to COVID-19?" 11/11/2021 Total 45% 5% 37% 14% Segou 31% % 52% Mopti 54% 3% 24% Tombouctou Gao 40% Kidal 35% Menaka Taoudenit 45% 62% 55% Adequate DK FOOTER GOES HERE 6% 32% 4% 16% 18% 10% 25% 2% 44% 10% 24% 9% 10% 25% 10% 42% Insufficient Too extreme 8% 35