#1Bangladesh's Expectations from COP26 Presented by Dr Fahmida Khatun Executive Director Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) and Professor Mizan R. Khan Deputy Director International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) Dhaka: 17 October 2021 CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development#2CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE Outline Introduction Major Issues for COP26 and Bangladesh's Expectations CF: Legal & Institutional Framework Transparency & Accountability Status in CF & ETF Why are negotiations so intractable? Politics & Groupings in CC Negotiations This Inequity is acceptable in NO WAY! Only Big Words & Small Changes - Shiboleth of Net Zero emissions by 2050 - Is it Real? Can the UK-led COP26 change the game? ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development 2#31. Introduction 3#41.1 The Most Important Climate Talk in the World The 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in 2021 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the largest global climate event after Paris Climate Conference in 2015. ☐ Given miserable climate change condition of the world, the future of the world depends on the outcome of this year's conference. ☐ Concerns over the impact of climate change have increased following the publication of the Sixth Assessment Report (6AR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). ☐ IPCC's scientific report indicates the severity of climate change. The report has pointed out critical environmental issues. Some of them are as follows- ☐ ☐ ☐ CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE Melting ice sheets causing ice loss on land and thermal expansion from ocean warming Global mean sea level increased by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m between 1901 and 2018 In 2019, atmospheric carbon concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years The concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide were higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 4#5CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE average 1971. temperature since 1.4 1.2 1 ☐ The average of annual average temperature change is 0.30 degrees of Celsius since 1971. From the year 2000, the average of annual average temperature has increased to 0.57 degrees of Celsius. 1.2 Bangladesh is Highly Vulnerable to the Impact of Climate Change ☐ Bangladesh has experienced an increasing trend in annual Figure: Annual Average Temperature Change (in Degrees Celsius) Degrees Celsius -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 Source: FAOSTAT ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 Annual Average Temperature Change (in Degrees Celsius) -Average Temperature Change 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 5 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019#6- CENTRE FOR 1.2 Bangladesh is Highly Vulnerable to the Impact of Climate Change (contd...) ☐ In Bangladesh, annual average temperatures increased by 0.64% in 2018, which was 10.20 times faster than the annual average temperature increase of 0.06% in 1961. ☐ If the trend of increase in annual average temperature continues, then by 2030 annual average temperature in Bangladesh will increase by 0.94%. Percentage Annual average temperature change (Actual, estimate & Forecast) 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 POLICY DIALOGUE Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 -0.20 -0.40 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 -Actual & estimate 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Forecast 2020 2023 2026 2029 6#71.2 Bangladesh is Highly Vulnerable to the Impact of Climate Change (contd..) ☐ Bangladesh is regularly experiencing extreme climate events (floods, cyclones, storm surges, droughts and other climate events) due to global warming. □ Bangladesh is expected to incur losses equivalent to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) USD 2.2 billion in 2014 dollars-on average per year due to floods. ☐ The negative consequences of floods in Bangladesh have affected a greater percentage (75 of total population) of people in Bangladesh with an estimated damage of 68 percent. D CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE percent ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Percentage (%) Figure: Per cent of Land Inundated During Flood and Monsoon Seasons in Bangladesh (1985-2018) 80 70 61 60 50 39 30 20 10 80 4 4 2 19 20 1985 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 68 2224 2224 14 0 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 42 38 10 12 11 3 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 42 3233 25 23 19 18 20 12 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 23 23 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1% of Total Land Flooded Average % of Total Land Flooded Source: Annual Flood Report by Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre Bangladesh (2018) Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 7#8CENTRE FOR 1.2 Bangladesh is Highly Vulnerable to the Impact of Climate Change (contd...) ☐ Bangladesh had to face severe cyclones and its devastating consequences frequently in recent times with a maximum economic loss of USD 8963 billion since 1900s (ADB, 2015). ☐ Evidence shows that tropical cyclones and severe storms has cost 90 percent of the lives out of total people lost their lives for natural hazard consequences in Bangladesh. POLICY DIALOGUE ADB (2015). Capacity Building for Disaster Risk Finance in Bangladesh. ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 8#92. Major Issues of COP26 and Bangladesh's Expectations 6#102.1 Interests of Bangladesh and Climate Vulnerable Countries Bangladesh along with other climate vulnerable countries has specific agendas that reflect the active interests for the climate vulnerable countries. Among these, at least five specific agendas are very important. These are the following- Ensuring the commitments of major carbon emitting countries to limit carbon emission Scaling up climate fund urgently to support climate vulnerable countries Ensuring the bigger share of climate fund towards adaptation Finalising the Paris Rulebook to ensure the accountability Establishing the mechanism for loss and damage AGENDA CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 10 10#112.2 Ensuring the commitments of major carbon emitting countries to limit carbon emission □ COP26 targets to enable every nation to reach to an agreement on tackling the climate change focusing on limiting the rise of temperature below 2 degrees Celsius that originated from the commitments of COP21 in 2015 (Paris Agreement). ☐ The Paris Agreement is a legally binding commitment where countries agreed to reduce their emission by a set amount voluntarily that is termed as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Hence, countries will have to come forward with an updated plan focusing on a high ambition to further contribute to the reduction of carbon emission by 2030. CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 11#122.2 Ensuring the commitments of major carbon emitting countries to limit carbon emission (contd...) The major carbon emitting countries have to ensure the commitments to deeper carbon emission cuts by 2030 to keep temperature below 2 degrees. ☐ A number of developed countries has raised their ambition to higher reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. ☐ A total of 89 countries have submitted new NDC targets, 4 countries have proposed new NDC targets, and 71 countries are yet to update their targets. CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development CO₁₂ Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 12#132.2 Ensuring the commitments of major carbon emitting countries to limit carbon emission (contd...) ☐ The USA has made commitments to cut GHG emissions at least by 50-52 percent from 2005 levels by 2030 The EU committed to cut GHG emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels The UK pledged to reduce carbon emissions by 75 percent by 2030. Japan by 46 percent in 2030 compared to the levels of 2013 and Canada by 40-45 percent below 2005 levels. China repeated its commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. South Korea plans to stop overseas finance for coal development. CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 13#142.3 Scaling up Climate Fund Urgently to Support Climate Vulnerable Countries There is an urgent need for scaling up climate finance so that vulnerable countries can make investment with better adaptation schemes. ☐ In order to make clean energy available and affordable to the poor, vulnerable countries like Bangladesh have to ensure the investment in renewable energy and energy infrastructures. ☐ However, the pledges made by the developed countries to raise USD 100 billion per year could not be delivered and remains unfulfilled. ☐ Experts and various climate action groups opined that at least USD 500 billion is required during 2020-2024. ☐ Accessibility of climate fund has been a challenging task for Bangladesh since a considerable amount is in the form of loans and non-concessional instruments. CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 14#152.4 Ensuring the bigger share of climate fund towards adaptation iinti ☐ At COP26, nations will determine the necessary actions needed to enable and encourage countries affected by climate change to protect and restore ecosystems and build preventive schemes. ☐ All countries should work collaboratively to produce an ‘Adaptation Communication', which is a summary of what they are doing and planning to do to adapt to the impacts of the changing climate, challenges they face and where they need help. - CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 15#162.4 Ensuring the bigger share of climate fund towards adaptation (contd...) ☐ Developing countries requires a significant amount of financing as a support to adapt climate change impact. Particularly, developed countries should come forward to deliver their pledges of raising USD 100 billion every year. ☐ However, the OECD estimates that USD 78.9 billion of climate fund was mobilised far away from reaching the target of raising USD 100 billion per year. ☐ Recently, some countries has committed to increase their contribution to climate fund. (e.g., UK doubling their climate finance with EUR 11.6 billion and US committed to increase their contribution to climate finance) CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 16#172.4 Ensuring the bigger share of climate fund towards adaptation (contd...) ☐ Climate fund is biased towards mitigation programmes. ☐ Mitigation funds comprises of 64 percent of total climate fund that are mostly used for energy and transport sectors. ☐ Least developed countries (LDCs) are the worst victims of climate change effect. ☐ Moreover, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has put more pressure on climate vulnerable countries. Hence, ensuring the bigger share of climate fund towards adaptation is crucial to build back better so that they are more climate resilience. Figure: Financing Climate Change GEF USD 4.1 Billion Carbon Market (CDM/JI) USD 45 billion World Bank Group USD 21.4 Billion CENTRE FOR OLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Adaptation Fund USD 16.1 Billion UNDP Fund USD 2.2 Billion Mitigation Adaptation Climate Financing Main Sources Both European Commission Fund USD 11.13 Million GFDRR USD 223 Million Climate Investment Fund USD 8.5 Billion Other MDBs USD 66.05 Billion Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 17#182.5 Finalising the Paris Rulebook to Ensure the Accountability □ All nations must finalise the Paris Rulebook (the rules needed to implement the Paris Agreement) by working together and turn the ambition into action by accelerating collaboration between governments. ☐ The UN also focuses on consensus-based negotiations where no issues will be left behind. ☐ At COP26, all nations will reach to an agreement to work together to remove barriers that prevent everyone from participating in COP26 and championing the voices of communities vulnerable to climate change, including indigenous peoples and communities affected by high carbon emission. CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 18#192.5 Finalising the Paris Rulebook to Ensure the Accountability (contd..) ☐ Bangladesh urges that the details of the Paris Rulebook should be finalised. This will ensure the accountability of all the countries including the high emitting countries. Three components of the rulebook are very important. These are the following: Guidance to facilitate global stocktaking for assessing collective progress on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. Establishment of a five-year time frame for NDCs by the countries, instead of a 10-year time frame, so that the progress can be tracked more often and measures can be taken accordingly. Finalisation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which sets rules for carbon markets in a way that financial support for adaptation is made available and human rights are safeguarded. CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 19#202.6 Establishing the Mechanism for Loss and Damage ☐ At COP19 in 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts was established with an objective to address loss and damage associated with the climate change effect for developing countries. The demand for loss and damages has been a long-standing issue for developing countries that has been resisted by the developed countries. ☐ Furthermore, Article 8 of the Paris agreement reaffirmed the loss and damage mechanism which has been the main vehicle under UNFCCC process for addressing the issue. - CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 20 20#213. CF: Legal & Institutional Framework 21#223.1 CF: Legal & Institutional Framework ☐ Global North has assumed obligatory responsibility in supporting the South in M & A (shall provide) ☐ Arts 4.3: New & add'l, adequate & predictable finance ☐ Art 4.4: provision of finance for adaptation ☐ PA Art 9: `shall provide support,' Art 9.5 for ex-ante provision of Info on CF; Art 9.7 for ex-post report on delivery ☐ Now two Fin Mechs: GEF & GCF, along with the LDCF, SCCF & AF (the latter partly was capitalized from 2 percent levy of CDM proceeds) ☐ COP15: pledge of USD 30 billion as fast-start fin during 2010-12 & $100 bn by 2020; CF from a variety of sources - CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 22 22#234. Transparency & Accountability 23 23#244.1 Transparency & Accountability Transparent Reporting, Review & Compliance - Art 13-15 ☐ Art 13 provides for an `enhanced transparency framework' (ETF) for action & support ☐ North `shall provide' support for CB in Transparency, but for other CB activities (Art 11) support is recommendatory ☐ A Mechanism - Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT) was established under the PA ☐ Art 14 ☐ Art 15 - a Gl Stocktake every 5 years, beginning from 2023 - Compliance mechanism is `non-adversarial & non-punitive'... peer-pressure through Tech Expert Review - CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 24 24#255. Status in CF & ETF 25 25#265.1 Status in CF & ETF ☐ EU including the UK contributed Euro 23.2 bn in 2019; without the UK, the amount stands at Euro 21.9 bn ☐ OECD report (2020): USD 78.9 billionn mobilized in 2018; but Oxfam deflates it down 3 times (19-22bn) repackaged ODA & double-triple counting of same money; no agreed definition yet of CF - ☐ M:A ratio is: 80:20 against repeated pledges of 50:50; now more of ODA-CF goes for M actions in the South ☐ Loan vs grant - 80:20; CF goes a little higher, but ODA goes down ☐ North >interested in transparency of the South, not much of their own action & support ☐ Adaptation is anticipatory action, but private sector cannot & will not provide ex-ante Info on their contribution ☐ CVF demanded USD 500 billion upto 2024, while South Africa demands USD 750 billion a year since 2025 - CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 26#276. Why are negotiations so intractable? 27 22#286.1 Why are negotiations so intractable? ☐ `Constructed ambiguity' in the regime texts are used as a resource by the material powers for manufacturing consent ☐ Fragmentations & increasing splits among parties in the North & the South weaken the progressive coalition ☐ A Himalayan gulf between CC Science & Policy ☐ Our Biology/Physiology responds well to immediate threats ☐ Our Econ System does not encourage investment in long term actions mainstream Econ - NPV concept dominates ☐ Our Pol System remains anchored to the `Westphalian' model of sovereignty/nat interests focus on territorial security & pol independence, views still global cooperation as a zero-sum,' not as `positive sum/win-win' game ☐ So USD 2 trillions are spent a year for addressing `perceived,' not 'real' threats to security of our survival, i.e, CC - CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 28#297. Politics & Groupings in CC Negotiations 29 29#307.1 Politics & Groupings in CC Negotiations Climate politics - issue-based so alliances shift often CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE Group of Arab Cs Coalition of Rainforest Nations OPEC Umbrella Group G-77 GRULAC ASIA LMDC EU BASIC AOSIS EIG SICA, ALBA AILAC Cartagena Group LDCs AFRICA, Congo Basin Cs Highly VCs CVF Fight bet high vs low-ambition groups ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development AOSIS emerged as a negotiating bloc in 1991, while the LDCs in 2001 Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 30#318. This Inequity is acceptable in NO WAY! 31#328.1 This Inequity is acceptable in NO WAY! - CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development NORTH CARBON CAKE WATCH THOSE CALORIES I Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 SOUTH RI 32#33- 9. Only Big Words & Small Changes – Shiboleth of Net Zero emissions by 2050 - Is it Real? 33 33#34- 9.1 Only Big Words & Small Changes – Shiboleth of Net Zero emissions by 2050 – Is it Real? - CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE BIG OIL ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development RENEWABLES RJ Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 34#3510. Can the UK-led COP26 change the game? 35#3610.1 Can the UK-led COP26 change the game? So the process of `active inaction' continues ☐ UK is doing excellent/elaborate homework, with its R2Z/R2R & many other initiatives; will it rachet up Mitigation, CF, etc.? □ UK PM announced reducing its ODA level from 0.7 percent of its GNI to 0.5 percent - a wrong signal by the COP Presidency ☐ Here is a statement of Churchill, a veteran British politician, in the House of Commons on 12 Nov 1936, which sounds as if it is written for today's continued inaction in CC negotiations: So they [the Government] go on in strange paradox, decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all-powerful to be impotent . . . Owing to • past neglect, in the face of the plainest warnings, we have entered upon a period of danger. The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedience of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences. We cannot avoid this period, we are in it now. (www.Churchill-society-London.org.uk/ Locusts.html, ` - CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development Bangladesh's Expectation from COP26 36#37THANK YOU CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE ICCCAD International Centre for Climate Change and Development 37